COME Lok Sabha elections, Madhya Pradesh stops being experimental and politics in the State veers towards the traditional Congress versus Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) activity. Mayawatis Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which made a noisy entry into the Assembly election scene in November-December 2008, was pushed to the status of an also-ran by voters. It is thus out of reckoning in a number of seats in the elections to the Lok Sabha to be held in two phases, on April 23 and 30. Uma Bharatis Bharatiya Janshakti Party, which failed to dent the BJPs vote bank in the Assembly elections, is not contesting the parliamentary elections but has extended support to BJP leader L.K. Advanis candidature for the post of Prime Minister. Thus, in a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP, it appears the trend in the Assembly elections, which favoured the BJP, will continue.
Of the 29 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP won 25 and the Congress four (Gwalior, Guna, Chhindwara and Jhabua) in 2004. This time, the Congress appears set to improve its tally because of the image of some of its candidates.
Voters in Bhopal and Vidisha Lok Sabha constituencies make it apparent that Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan will be instrumental in getting votes for the BJP. His low-profile, humble image and easy accessibility, along with populist schemes such as the Ladli Laxmi Yojana (financial assistance given at the time of the birth of a girl child) and Kanyadaan Yojana (mass marriage plan) for girls from poor families, both Hindu and Muslim, have endeared him to people cutting across caste and religion.
Despite the fact that Madhya Pradesh lags behind in various key indices of development, people view Chauhan as one who has at least tried to deliver something. For his governments failure to fulfil all his promises, like improving water supply or the power situation, he blames the lack of cooperation from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre. In order to highlight this he undertook a Nyaya Yatra (justice rally) across the State and seems to have been successful in conveying his message. The general feeling among the people in the State is that a vote for the BJP would mean the same party in Delhi too.
This, it is apparently felt, will make the Chauhan government perform better.
There has never been a Chief Minister like him. He has shared our joys and sorrows and has not discriminated between Hindus and Muslims, says Shaukat Khan of Salamatpur village in Vidisha. He has helped many poor families marry off their daughters. What more can we ask? He echoes the sentiment that a BJP government at the Centre will strengthen the hand of the Chief Minister.
Chauhans overwhelming influence on the States politics is something even his rivals grudgingly admit. His style of functioning and his comparatively good performance give the BJP an advantage. Otherwise we are better placed now than in the Assembly elections. At least some of our candidates are good and we should win more seats than in 2004, said a senior Congress leader in Bhopal. He said this time there was no sale of the ticket unlike in the Assembly elections and some genuinely winnable candidates were in the fray.
Interestingly, the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS), which the Congress was hoping to cash in on, has failed to excite voters. Rather, it has generated widespread resentment among those who were denied work. Besides corruption, there are allegations of unfair distribution of job cards. It remains anybodys guess how this will influence the elections.
It is intriguing that there is a near-total absence of excitement about the BSP, unlike in the Assembly elections when a number of people talked about trying a new alternative. There is no talk of the BSP this time, mainly because it is not viewed as a potential ruling party at the Centre. Why would we want to waste our vote? asks Phool Singh of Muktapur village in Raisen district. Many others, like Ram Kishore, Prem Narayan, Panna Lal and Badri Prasad, all farmers, labourers or petty shop owners, echoed this view. The uppermost priority for them is to vote for a BJP government at the Centre so that Chauhans performance gets even better.
With this sort of public approval, it is not surprising that the BJP is making claims about improving its tally. At a press conference, the Chief Minister said the BJP would win at least 26 seats this time.
Notwithstanding the confidence exuded by BJP leaders, there is reason to believe that it is not going to be that easy for the party this time. When the Congress improved its tally from 39 seats in 2003 to 71 in 2008 in the 230-member Assembly, the BJP slid from 172 seats to 143.
Keeping the performance of the Assembly elections in mind, the Congress hopes to win Sidhi, Satna, Shahdol, Mandla, Mandsaur and Jabalpur in addition to its existing seats. Besides, in Rewa, Satna and Morena, where the BSP has a base, there could be tactical voting to defeat the BJP. We will get a minimum of 10 seats this time because the candidates are good and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh evokes positive response as opposed to L.K. Advani who does not enjoy any popularity here. Whatever votes the BJP is expecting to get here is due to Shivraj Singh Chauhans performance, says Manak Agrawal, general secretary, of the Pradesh Congress Committee.
On the campaign front, the BJP talks about the performance of its government in the State and the determined leadership of Advani while the Congress is harping on NREGS and the UPA governments success in preventing the global economic meltdown from affecting Indias economy.
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