IF the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces the ire of many sections of the people of Karnataka in the two-phase elections, on April 23 and 30, to 28 Lok Sabha seats, it has only itself to blame. The party came to power in Karnataka in May 2008 when it won 110 seats (vote share: 33.90 per cent) in the 224-member Assembly the first time it had won on its own in any of the four southern States. Ever since Sangh Parivar affiliates, most notably the Ram Sene and the Bajrang Dal, have indulged in acts that have shaken the conscience of the citizen, irrespective of political affiliation, and tarnished Karnatakas image as a democratic, secular and progressive State.
Starting with vandalising churches, particularly in the coastal district of Dakshina Kannada last September, and progressing to brutal attacks on women, typified by the violence on a group of women in a pub in Mangalore, these elements have turned normal life on its head in many areas.
Ironically, the B.S. Yeddyurappa-led governments reaction to this was hardly encouraging, with some senior Ministers even subtly endorsing the violence against women. The government had to eat humble pie when the Karnataka High Court exonerated the editor of an anti-Hindutva eveninger who was hounded by Bajrang Dal activists and later arrested in connection with an old case.
The governments unpopularity also stems from the mismanagement of the power situation power cuts are a daily occurrence across the State (see box) and its failure to act on its election promises, especially the raising of the income limit to qualify for below-poverty-line status. The BJP, which won 18 Lok Sabha seats in the 2004 elections, also suffers from a geographic bias it is strong in the northern and coastal regions but is unable to make a dent in the southern districts barring the Bangalore urban agglomeration.
The party has also been hit by bickering among its top two leaders, Yeddyurappa and former Union Minister H.N. Ananth Kumar, and their supporters. Also, the compulsory anti-terror campaign, which the party introduced on college campuses, did not go down well with the people. For the purpose it formed a State-level committee and four divisional-level committees, which were staffed reportedly by officers with RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh) background.
But can the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular), a constituent of the Third Front, take advantage of the downswing in the BJPs popularity?
The JD(S) is spearheading the Third Fronts ambitions in the State and is keen to regain the glory of 1996 when a united Janata Dal won 16 Lok Sabha seats and catapulted H.D. Deve Gowda to the helm of national politics at the head of the United Front government.
Deve Gowda, the unquestioned leader and public face of the JD(S), takes much of the credit for the formation of the Third Front. His party also looks to benefit as part of the Third Front since it gives the JD(S) which, in the words of spokesperson Y.S.V. Datta, is a small regional and State-level party political respectability as a party that can be in a position to run a government at the Centre.
While it is true that support for both the Congress and the BJP is ebbing, questions remain about the JD(S) projecting itself as a national player. The inability of the JD(S) to do so can hurt its chances since, traditionally, supporters of smaller parties in the State have voted for the national parties in Lok Sabha elections. For instance, in 2004, when Karnataka held simultaneous Assembly and parliamentary elections, the BJP polled 71.18 lakh votes in the Assembly elections and 87.32 lakh votes in the parliamentary elections. The Congress polled 88.61 lakh votes in the Assembly elections and 92.47 lakh votes in the Lok Sabha elections. But, for the JD(S) the votes were almost the same: 52.26 lakh (Assembly) and 51.35 lakh (Lok Sabha).
Karnatakas importance to the Third Front can be gauged from the fact that the 10-party political front was launched formally on March 12 at Dobbespet, 60 kilometre from Bangalore. The occasion was marked by a mammoth political rally, which saw regional, Left, democratic and secular forces come together. Leaders of these parties, including Prakash Karat of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), A.B. Bardhan of the Communist Party of India, N. Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Deve Gowda and representatives of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) addressed over a lakh of people.
The JD(S), which is strong in the southern districts and Vokkaliga strongholds, is yet to make inroads into the coastal and central regions. But in the northern areas the party hopes to spring a surprise. Former Chief Minister Ramakrishna Hegde was able to woo the masses of these districts in his heyday with the undivided Janata Parivar. Gowda will have to do a Hegde to convince voters that the JD(S) can counter both the communal forces and the ineptitude of the Congresss economic policies. On its part, the JD(S), with the backing of the Left, expects to improve upon its 2004 performance when it won just two seats. The JD(S) is contesting 26 seats, having ceded the Dakshina Kannada (CPI(M)) and Udupi-Chikamagalur (CPI) constituencies to the Left.
The Congress, which won eight seats in 2004, has an overall presence in the State through its traditionally strong base among Dalits, Muslims, Brahmins, Lingayats and the Scheduled Castes and the Scheduled Tribes. But many of these voters have, during the last decade, deserted the Congress.
For the Congress, until 1996 Karnataka was a pocket borough it could count on, even bucking trends when the party fared badly elsewhere. But in 1996 it won just five seats and has been on a downward spiral since then except for 1999 when it won 18 seats.
The party is hoping for a revival, but infighting among State leaders, the absence of a charismatic leadership that can motivate the rank and file, and a lack of cohesion in its strategy to take on its opponents could prove stumbling blocks. In fact, the party, which won 80 seats and had a vote share of 34.60 per cent in the 2008 elections, drew a blank in recent byelections in eight Assembly constituencies.
Political parties have an added burden in this round of elections, the first after the delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies. Delimitation has changed the demographics and redrawn and left a number of constituencies with new caste and political permutations and combinations. While seats like Bellary and Bijapur have become reserved seats, Chikkodi has been de-reserved. Again, while Bangalore Central has been formed after the exercise, new Assembly segments have been incorporated into constituencies such as Udupi-Chikamagalur, Bellary, Chitradurga, Dharwad and Mysore, forcing parties to draw up new political strategies to suit the changed characteristics.
While the bread and butter issues of power, water, health care, education and housing will be taken up in a big way, a key ingredient will be caste. Caste has always played a major role in elections in Karnataka, with the two dominant castes, the Lingayats (around 16 per cent of the population as per the L.G. Havanur Commission for Backward Classes) and the Vokkaligas (12 per cent) picking up a major share of the spoils, far in excess of their population. In the present Assembly, the two dominant communities, who together make up less than 28 per cent of the population, hold almost 50 per cent of the seats.
While the Lingayats are traditionally strong in northern Karnataka, the Vokkaligas have held sway in the southern old Mysore districts. Of the 19 Chief Ministers that Karnataka has had, seven have been Lingayats and six Vokkaligas. The BJPs and Yeddyurappas success in 2004 is largely on account of Lingayat support. But Yeddyurappas preference, during his nearly year-long rule, for certain subsects among Lingayats appears to have turned the majority Panchamasali sect away. The BJP was also supported by the Kurubas, who account for 6 per cent of the population. Vokkaligas have, in spurts, supported various avatars of the Janata parivar.
Of the other political contenders, the BSP, which won a little over 2.5 per cent of the votes in the 2008 Assembly elections, is most likely to draw a blank but harm the chances of the secular parties.
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