Talking tough

THE Indian government has toughened its stance in the diplomatic standoff that followed the terror attacks in Mumbai. There was a danger of things getting out of hand after External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee threatened to take all measures necessary in a marked departure from his earlier stand, when he ruled out the use of military force against targets in Pakistan. Defence Minister A.K. Antony also said that no military action was being planned against Pakistan.

The governments position seems to have hardened after Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari stated in the third week of December that New Delhi was yet to provide convincing proof of the role of Pakistan-based actors in the terror attacks. Another irritant was the Pakistan governments volte-face on Maulana Masood Azhar of the outlawed Jaish-e-Mohammed. Pakistan authorities initially stated that Azhar had been put under arrest, but a week later Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi made the surprising statement that Azhar was out of the country and untraceable.

The Pakistan governments argument was bolstered by Indias reluctance to share evidence with the international community. Ronald Noble, chief of Interpol, who visited both countries, said in late December that New Delhi had not shared any information about the Mumbai attacks with his organisation. He said that Interpol had not received any information that would allow him to comment on the accuracy of media reports about the nationality and identity of the Mumbai terrorists. He also asserted that it was not acceptable internationally for information to be put in the media and not placed in international police databases. Noble said that a country like Pakistan, which had suffered at the hands of terrorists, needs international support not international condemnation at such a critical time.

Influential sections in the Indian establishment seem intent on whipping up war hysteria. Some observers are of the view that the jingoistic statements emanating from the upper echelons of the Indian government may be a ploy to hijack the terror platform from the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). General elections are only a few months away. The policy of no war, no peace that was being pursued by New Delhi immediately after the attacks momentarily took a back seat as rhetoric threatening fire and brimstone took centre stage.

Mukherjee has been emphasising since mid-December that the least Islamabad can do is to extradite those persons New Delhi has accused of being involved in the Mumbai terror plot and accept that the lone surviving terrorist, Mohammed Ajmal Amir Imam alias Kasab, was a Pakistan national. India handed over a letter written by Ajmal Amir to the Government of Pakistan, in which he requested the assistance of a lawyer and a meeting with Pakistans High Commissioner to India. Pakistan has refused to confirm that Ajmal Amir is a Pakistan citizen on the plea that his name does not appear on any voters list.

Mukherjee said that President Zardari and his predecessor, General Pervez Musharraf, had given numerous assurances that Pakistani territory would not be allowed to be used by terrorists. Addressing a meeting of heads of Indian diplomatic missions on December 22, he warned Islamabad that Indias patience was fast running out. He said India hoped that the international community and Islamabad would take effective action but that it was India that would ultimately have to deal with the problem.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singhs timely clarification on December 23 that nobody wants war, a significant departure from Mukherjees bellicose statement, has been welcomed by the international community.

A retired Indian diplomat, who held senior posts in the previous government, was of the view that talk of military action could turn out to be a risky and counterproductive manoeuvre. He recalled that the Indian troops massed on the western borders after the December 2001 attack on Parliament House had to be withdrawn after nine months. A cross-border strike by India has the potential to snowball into a geopolitical crisis.

Pakistani society seems to have closed ranks in the face of Indias tough posturing. The Pakistan Army high command said that it would respond to any Indian attack within minutes and had placed its troops on high alert. In a speech to the countrys Parliament, Prime Minister Yusouf Raza Gilani reminded the world that Pakistan was a nuclear power and if war was imposed on the country then we will fight it. He also said that war is not a solution to these problems. His speech came after the American media reported that the George Bush administration had information that the Indian Air Force (IAF) was preparing for a possible mission against targets in Pakistan.

The Global Intelligence Service, Stratfor, based in the United States, says in its latest report that any Indian attack most likely would take the form of unilateral precision strikes inside Pakistani-administered Kashmir, along with special forces action on the ground in Pakistan proper. The report claims that New Delhi is keen to send a message to Islamabad that it will no longer tolerate attacks on its territory from either rogue or state-sponsored elements. The lack of an adequate response, the report said, would, from Indias point of view, only encourage militants and invite a domestic political backlash.

However, if the latest developments are an indication, New Delhi, at least for the time being, seems content to leave the job of launching pre-emptive strikes to its closest strategic ally, the U.S. On December 22, American drones once again struck inside Pakistani territory, killing a number of civilians. Most of the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish militants had shifted base to the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan by 2005, following a crackdown by Musharrafs government under American pressure. According to the Pakistan journalist Syed Salim Shehzad, Lashkar militants trained by the India cell of Pakistans Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) have introduced the latest guerilla tactics in Afghanistan and in Pakistans tribal areas. The targets were North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces in Afghanistan and the Pakistan Army in the North and South Waziristan areas.

U.S. Joint Chief of Staff Mike Mullen was once again in Islamabad trying to impress upon Pakistans political and military establishment to take expeditious action against militant groups and individuals named as suspects by India in the Mumbai attacks. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has sent high-level teams to both India and Pakistan to probe the attacks. Indian intelligence agencies have in recent years been closely cooperating with the FBI and the Israeli Intelligence Agency, Mossad, in counter-insurgency and anti-terror operations. A top U.S. intelligence official, John McConnel, the Director of U.S. National Intelligence, was in New Delhi in late December to meet National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan.

Congress president Sonia Gandhi also added her voice to the rising clamour for stronger action against Pakistan. At an election rally in Kashmir, she warned Pakistan of a befitting reply if it did not stop terrorists from using its soil against India. New Delhi has put a freeze on sporting and cultural links with its neighbour. The Indian cricket teams Pakistan tour has been cancelled, and there is no talk of its being rescheduled. The Pakistan government had assured full security to the Indian team. However, given that the wounds left by the Mumbai attack would take time to heal, a postponement was anyway on the cards.

But the government has not given the Board of Control of Cricket in India much of a say in the deliberations leading to the decision to cancel the tour. Observers point out that much of the subcontinent is embroiled in violence instigated by terrorists of many hues. They point out that the English team came back to India after the Mumbai carnage despite the terrorists targeting British nationals. The Sri Lankan Cricket Board had agreed in principle to tour Pakistan on the dates that had been earmarked for the Indian team. But in the last week of December, the Sri Lankan government indicated that the tour would not take place as scheduled.

Washington is also piling on the pressure on Islamabad. In the third week of December, it was reportedly conveyed to the visiting National Security Adviser of Pakistan, Mahmud Ali Durrani, in Washington that Pakistans shifty and shifting position on the Mumbai attacks was not acceptable. Washington has been alleging since the beginning of the American occupation in Afghanistan that Islamabad has been less than sincere in its crackdown on militant forces aligned to the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in a speech to the U.S. Council of Foreign Relations, said that Pakistan needed to deal with the problem of terrorists more effectively and that it was not enough to say that these were non-state actors. U.S. officials have been saying for some time that there is enough evidence pinpointing the role of the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jamat-ud-Dawa in the Mumbai attacks. The common refrain of senior American and Indian officials is that the Pakistan leadership is either unwilling or incapable of taking the actions it has promised against the terrorist groups operating from its territory.