Velvet gloves

The WikiLeaks Russian dossier exposes the NATO claim that the alliance's eastward expansion is not directed against Russia.

in Moscow

WIKILEAKS dropped a bombshell when it released the United States diplomatic cables, which showed that even as the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) declared a reset in relations with Russia they were drawing new contingency plans for a war with Russia in Eastern Europe.

The cables revealed a secret NATO plan drawn up this year to expand defence arrangements along Russian borders. While U.S. President Barack Obama expounded upon the need to give a fresh start to relations with Russia, U.S. Admiral James Stavridis, NATO's top commander in Europe, urged NATO to prepare for defending Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, as well as Poland, against a growing Russian threat. U.S. officials justified new war preparations by pointing to the beating the Russian army gave to Georgia in August 2008. It is conveniently omitted that it was Georgia that attacked Russian forces, not the other way round.

Codenamed Eagle Guardian, the NATO plan was compiled in January and formally approved at the NATO summit in Lisbon in November. At that meeting, the alliance adopted its new official doctrine, which stated that NATO-Russia cooperation was of crucial importance since it contributed to creating a common space of peace, stability and security. NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen made it a point to invite Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Lisbon to underscore a fresh start in the alliance's relations with Russia. A joint NATO-Russia statement approved in Lisbon solemnly declared that the two sides embarked on a new stage of cooperation towards a true strategic partnership.

NATO, of course, courted Moscow because it badly needed Russian help to extricate itself from the quagmire of the Afghan war. In Lisbon, Russia and NATO signed agreements for increased Russian assistance to the U.S.-led NATO force in Afghanistan, which will include the supply of Russian gunship and transport helicopters, training of Afghan pilots and mechanics, and expansion of the overland transit arrangement to allow the so-called reverse transit of non-lethal armour and other equipment from Afghanistan.

Simultaneously, NATO secretly endorsed a war plan against Russia that identified nine NATO divisions for combat operations in the event of a Russian attack against the Baltic states and provided for the deployment of naval assault forces and British and U.S. warships in the Baltic Sea. At the first-ever U.S.-Poland High Level Defence Group meeting in Warsaw in November 2009, the sides discussed deployment in Poland of U.S. F-16 fighter planes, C-130 transport aircraft, a naval unit and some support detachments. Next year, NATO forces will begin training for the new war scenario.

Washington and its Western allies have for the first time since the end of the Cold War drawn up classified military plans to defend the most vulnerable parts of Eastern Europe against Russian threats, The Guardian wrote, commenting on the confidential U.S. diplomatic cables.

WikiLeaks releases also laid bare U.S. plans to build missile defences in Europe, allegedly to defend allies against Iran and North Korea. Washington has consistently denied that the missiles could target Russia.

In what was hailed as a symbol of new partnership, NATO at the Lisbon summit invited Russia to join in building a common missile defence shield for Europe. Rasmussen called it a shared security roof that would be a strong political symbol that Russia is fully part of the Euro-Atlantic family.

Double dealing

U.S confidential cables tell a different story. In November last year, U.S. Assistant Defence Secretary Alexander Vershbow offered the Poles a role in the U.S. missile defence project by hosting land-based standard missile-3 interceptors. Earlier this year, U.S. Brigadier General John Hesterman told Polish officials that contrary to official denials, the proposed U.S. anti-missile system in Europe could be used against Russia.

The U.S. Embassy in Warsaw quoted Poles as suggesting that Russia, not Iran, poses the greater threat to Poland and asking a series of hypothetical questions on the adaptive nature of the system vis-a-vis the changing threat.

With regard to how NATO might defend itself from missiles coming from elsewhere than Iran or Syria, BG John Hesterman of the joint staff said that sea-borne platforms could provide surge capability against threats from an unforeseen direction, land-based sites could be upgraded with more interceptors if the scale of the threat were increased, and radars could be reoriented, the U.S. Embassy reported.

The leaked NATO plan speaks volumes about the West's double- dealing on Russia. It exposes the NATO propaganda myth that the alliance's eastward expansion is not directed against Russia. Contrary to its assurances to Russia, the U.S. and NATO have continued to see it as an enemy that needs to be contained and encircled.

Compared with the secret NATO war plans, WikiLeaks' files on Russian politics and leaders offer few insights, although there is enough in them to annoy the Kremlin. Describing the Russian ruling tandem, one cable disparagingly speaks of Medvedev as playing Robin to [Prime Minister Vladimir] Putin's Batman as in the popular U.S. comic book series. Another document calls Medvedev pale and hesitant in comparison with the alpha-dog Putin a reference to the superhero in another comic series, Ultimate Fantastic Four. A Washington-datelined secret cable quoted U.S. Foreign Secretary Hillary Clinton telling Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in March 2009 that Putin was a behind-the-scenes puppeteer.

These descriptions, however, add little to what is common knowledge in Russia: that Medvedev is the junior partner in the Kremlin duumvirate. We found nothing interesting or deserving comment in the material, the Russian President's spokeswoman Natalya Timakova said. Fictional Hollywood heroes hardly need comment.

Many leaked communiques deal with familiar Russian evils crime, corruption and lack of democracy. A February cable from the U.S. Embassy in Madrid quotes a Spanish investigator claiming that Russia is a virtual mafia state where political parties, police agencies and possibly even Putin work in collusion with organised crime groups. The U.S. Embassy in Moscow calls the claims insightful and valuable and refers to Moscow as a kleptocracy with the Kremlin at the centre. Some messages read like plain marketplace gossip. U.S. diplomats quoted unnamed sources in Moscow as claiming that Putin has amassed a personal fortune of $40 billion but giving no proof. Putin's office issued an angry rebuttal.

If there are real diplomats behind this text, then it is sad and distressing that there are incompetent people working in our country, a Russian government spokesman told reporters, dismissing the claims as pure insinuation and utter rubbish.

U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates made his own contribution of sorts to the U.S.-Russian reset. In a February 12 cable from the U.S. Embassy in Paris, Gates is quoted as telling his French counterpart that Russian democracy has disappeared and that the government is an oligarchy run by the security services. Gates adds that Medvedev has a more pragmatic vision than Putin, but there has been little real change, according to the document. The U.S. defence chief was trying to persuade the French to cancel their plans to sell an amphibious assault ship to Russia, but failed.

The remarks of top U.S. officials responsible for formulating America's foreign policy show that Washington draws a clear distinction between Putin and Medvedev, sees rivalry in the tandem, and clearly favours Medvedev over Putin. However, Washington would be committing a mistake if it stakes its policy on divisions within the Russian duumvirate: it could only antagonise the Kremlin. Putin was quick to give a dressing down to Washington, denouncing as impudent, brazen and aggressive the attempts to create a split in his tandem with Medvedev.

At the end of the day, Moscow is determined not to let the WikiLeaks scandal derail the reset with Washington. We are not paranoid, and we do not link Russian-American relations with any leaks, said Medvedev. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov shrugged off the leaked documents as amusing reading, while Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexei Sazonov insisted that Russia was committed to the positive development of bilateral relations with the United States.

However, there are concerns in Moscow that the cablegate may still affect its relations with Washington. The massive disclosure of U.S. confidential diplomatic correspondence could weaken Obama and undermine his resolve to pursue better relations with Russia.

The Obama administration, its position shattered by this embarrassing exposure, will now find it much harder to follow through on the course of rapprochement with Moscow, said the political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov.

Some experts went as far as to suggest that the leaks may have been organised by Obama's political opponents. Dr Alexei Fenenko of the Moscow-based Institute for International Security Studies draws attention to the fact that the WikiLeaks expose was timed to coincide with the midterm election to Congress, in which the Democrats suffered a painful setback. The analyst believes that the WikiLeaks Russian dossier may be used as a pretext to undertake a certain correction of the U.S. policy line on Russia.