High vigil

At Ballad Post in Samba, southwest of Jammu, a BSF soldier stands guard at the fenced border with Pakistan, in November 2009.-MUKESH GUPTA/REUTERS

BASICALLY, this is an effort to break the logjam in the context of the security imperatives in South Asia, especially the fluid situation in Afghanistan, but the red lines too are clear. Pakistan must demonstrate a continued movement on dismantling the terror infrastructure in their soil. This was how Congress spokesperson Manish Tiwari summed up the party's position on the forthcoming talks between India and Pakistan, which involve meetings of the Home Ministers in June and of the External Affairs Ministers in July.

Clearly, security concerns, particularly those relating to terrorist strikes in India are central to the dialogue. Interactions with key figures in the Indian security establishment, including senior Cabinet Ministers, underscore the importance attached to the issue of terrorist strikes. A common phrase used by most of the key figures is that the forthcoming dialogue will have meaning only if confidence-building measures relating to terrorism are advanced. This phrase has been in circulation since the first announcement of talks and in spite of admissions that the format, scope and agenda of the process have not been discussed.

We are ready to talk, discuss and engage but at the same time we will not relax or give any quarter to the Pakistan-sponsored terror machinery. In a sense, it is a nuanced or dialectical approach, a senior Home Ministry official told Frontline. According to him, the statement that emanated from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the last week of April and the one made by Home Minister P. Chidambaram in the first week of May encapsulate this approach.

Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Yusuf Raza Gilani announced the resumption of talks on April 29 in Thimphu, stating that the searchlight is on the future and not on the past. A few days later, Chidambaram, responding to the judgment on the Kasab trial, categorised it as a message to Pakistan that it should not export terror to India. He added: If they do and if the terrorists are apprehended, we will be able to bring them to justice and give them exemplary punishment.

Politicians as well as administrative and security officials in the Indian security establishment, including those in the Home Ministry and the Defence Ministry, point out that the reasons for this dual approach are not far to seek. Three vital developments that have unfolded in the first four months of 2010 highlight the grave situation faced by India. In each of these there is a Pakistan dimension, and the country needs to address it, said a senior security official.

The first four months of this year saw a major terrorist attack in Pune and efforts to step up infiltration of Pakistan-trained militants to Jammu and Kashmir, the official said. As a consequence, he added, the defence and security forces were forced to launch one of their biggest counter-insurgency operations in recent times. In fact, even as the talks were being announced our forces were battling insurgents and infiltrators.

The February 13 bomb blast in Pune, which claimed seven lives and injured more than 50 persons, was the most prominent terrorist strike in about a year. According to sources in the Home Ministry, after the November 26, 2008, attacks in Mumbai, there was a lull in major terrorist attacks, though approximately 15 conspiracies to launch major attacks were foiled in 2009. One view in the security establishment is that the lull was the result of the internal turmoil in Pakistan on the political and security fronts and the attendant media attention on it.

Whatever the reasons for the lull, the dominant perception in the security establishment now is that this period is over. The increased infiltration along the Line of Control (LoC) is highlighted as proof of this.

According to a Home Ministry official, the launch of Operation Khoj [Search] by the Army, involving other security services too, followed the receipt of information that a large number of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) militants, equipped with maps, weapons and ammunition, had crossed over at the Pallanwalla sector near Jammu in the third week of March. The information was that militants had split into smaller groups of four to six, with the objective of launching one or more attacks. Operation Khoj involved more than 1,000 troops spread over an area of over 50 square kilometres. It has been the experience of the Indian security establishment that such massive infiltration and such large-scale planning are not possible without the connivance of Pakistan and one or many of its security outfits, the official said.

The signs of increased infiltration attempts by militants from Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and efforts to engineer attacks in different parts of the State were evident as early as January 2010. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 65 infiltration attempts and 126 militancy-related incidents were reported in Jammu and Kashmir between January 1 and March 30. This resulted in the deaths of 18 civilians and 18 security personnel, and 45 encounters, which left 53 terrorists dead. The SATP also pointed out that for the first time in Kashmir, rail services were disrupted after an improvised explosive device ripped through the only railway track connecting north Kashmir's Baramulla district to south Kashmir's Qazigund area, on April 2. Though there was no loss of life, the railway track was damaged. The Hizbul Mujahideen is said to have claimed responsibility for the attack.

Defence Minister A.K. Antony expressed concern over these developments, while Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, on his part, was compelled to halt the withdrawal of troops from Jammu and Kashmir on account of the renewed infiltration. He had earlier said that a total of 35,000 troops had been withdrawn from the State and more would follow as the situation improved.

Another area of concern in the security establishment relates to Pakistan's sustained efforts to thwart the growing Indian influence in Afghanistan. One view in the security establishment is that Pakistan has attempted to block India's initiatives in Afghanistan for as long as seven years. These efforts of Pakistan have apparently been inspired by the desire to establish a proxy regime in Kabul. It is not clear whether the Afghanistan dimension will come up in the talks, but the issues relating to terrorist operations in India will certainly be discussed.

Summing up the situation in the run-up to the talks, Manish Tiwari said the Home Minister was forced to state after the 26/11 attacks that the finger of suspicion unmistakably points to the territory of our neighbour, Pakistan. Tiwari said India would be happy if it did not have to say something like that again.