With a scam-hit government and a faction-ridden main opposition groping for direction, the polity presents a poignant picture.
IN what could well be termed a rare political quirk, the state of affairs in the ruling Congress and the principal opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party, fits the same description: desperately seeking direction in an atmosphere marred by unparalleled political challenges, intra-organisational tussles and consequent confusion. There is a high level of activity on both sides and in different forums, including public spaces, the executive and the judiciary, but its impact in the immediate and possibly medium term is likely to be more confusion.
Thus, in the BJP one witnesses veteran leader and former Deputy Prime Minister Lal Krishna Advani embarking on yet another rath yatra, with the professed objective of raising awareness about the need to cleanse public life. However, the vast majority of supporters of the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS)-led Sangh Parivar perceive it as a manoeuvre in organisational one-upmanship to re-emphasise his credentials as a prime ministerial candidate.
In the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), the leadership, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, has repeatedly asserted its commitment to make amends for the corruption and illegal actions of the UPA's constituents at various junctures during its seven-year rule. At the same time, it has advanced the argument, among others, that the continued imprisonment of industrialists arrested in corruption cases works against the objective of attracting greater investment in key sectors such as infrastructure.
On the government side, the activity manifested itself as legal arguments in the Supreme Court for in camera trial in the 2G spectrum case considered to be the biggest corruption scam in the country on the plea that public trial in the case was destabilising the system. This when the government's image-rebuilding exercise apparently hinges on showing greater commitment to transparency in governance.
A similar dichotomy is present in the opposition campaign too. A major charge raised by Advani during his yatra relates to the flight of Indian capital through illegal and illicit financial streams. To buttress his argument, the veteran leader has often quoted the report of Global Financial Integrity (GFI), the renowned international advocacy group. Quoting from the GFI report, Advani has pointed out repeatedly that India lost $213 billion between 1948 and 2008 through illicit financial flows or illegal capital flight. He also quoted GFI's conclusion that these illicit financial flows were generally the product of corruption, bribery and kickbacks, criminal activities, and efforts to hide wealth from the country's tax authorities. But, even while stating this Advani has kept silent about one aspect of the GFI report: the finding that this illegal process gathered greater momentum after India opened up its economy in 1991 and that 68 per cent of the total illegal siphoning off of money from India since Independence happened after 1991. In other words, the contribution made by the liberalisation of the economy to the deepening and strengthening of corrupt practices is glossed over conveniently in what is called a nationwide anti-corruption drive.
The reasons for such silence are obvious. Both the BJP and the Congress are votaries of the same economic policy, which promotes liberalisation and triggers the accentuation of corruption and other illegal dealings in governance. Along with the political confusion, internal tussles and frenzied activity, the affinity and adherence to liberalisation is also shared by the Congress and the BJP.
Evidently, the lack of clarity about actions on the political and organisational fronts, along with the consequent pulls and pressures, portends an emerging crisis for both the ruling dispensation and the principal opposition.
The travails of the government revolve essentially around four factors. First, the seemingly never-ending exposes of corruption scandals and the political twists and turns these generate; second, the clumsy handling of both the corruption scams and the civil society-driven movement against corruption; third, the tussles that have broken out within the Union Cabinet on these and other issues; and fourth, the absence of a creative and competent political leadership to address these challenges.
In normal circumstances, the cumulative impact of these factors would be enough to tilt the balance of power in favour of the opposition. But the plight of the BJP is such that it has failed to capitalise on this situation, though from time to time it has given the impression of fulfilling the role of the main opposition. The reasons that have held it down are similar to those the Congress faces, and range from the lack of a cohesive and creative leadership to intra-party personality tussles and corruption scandals involving BJP-run State governments.
The troubles of the Union government are for the most part linked to the exposes of corruption in the allocation of 2G spectrum. The political twists and turns following every expose have been such that the culpability of several senior leaders is under consideration. Preliminary investigations have been carried out into allegations made against Home Minister P. Chidambaram pertaining to the time when he was the Finance Minister. There are also demands that the involvement of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the current Finance Minister, Pranab Kumar Mukherjee, among others, be looked into.
The clumsy handling of the corruption scams in court and in terms of engaging civil society has been showcased in the demand for in camera trial in the 2G scam and in Union Minister Salman Khurshid's argument that investments will not go up if industrialists are put in jail on corruption charges.
What is more worrying for the UPA is the traction the exposes have got from the actions of different sections of the government. A case in point is the March 25 note prepared by the Finance Ministry, which virtually held Chidambaram responsible for the huge loss to the exchequer in 2G spectrum allocation. The note and the controversy it generated rendered the Union government largely dysfunctional for about eight days.
At the level of the individual, the contents in the Finance Ministry note and the September 27 letter of clarification by Pranab Mukherjee to Congress president Sonia Gandhi and the Prime Minister have struck body blows to Chidambaram's political credibility. There are also indications that Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa is gearing up to increase Chidambaram's discomfiture by bringing up the controversy surrounding his election to the Lok Sabha, which is the subject of an election petition in the Madras High Court, alleging fraud, by his rival candidate of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).
Several Congress leaders themselves point out that contexts that suggest tussles between Ministers can be overcome only by a strong political leadership. When the Pranab-Chidambaram face-off erupted, the ministerial leadership, particularly the Prime Minister, was found wanting in taking remedial measures. In the words of an outspoken south Indian Congress leader, Manmohan Singh's studied inaction only helped reinforce the public perception that he heads the most corrupt government India has seen in decades and that instead of leading the nation he has allowed himself to be guided by those who have no understanding of politics.
The leader added that this particular development strengthened the case of those who had suggested, albeit in private Congress forums, the replacement of Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister.
It finally required the intervention of Sonia Gandhi, who was recuperating after a medical procedure abroad, to broker peace between the Ministers. But there are suggestions that the truce is a fragile one. There are sufficient indications that close associates of Pranab Mukherjee still comment that he was pressured to distance himself from the controversial note and that the distancing did not represent his real position. This atmosphere of skulduggery also points to the leadership deficiency in the party.
According to a number of Congress party activists, Rahul Gandhi's failure to emerge as a worthwhile politician has been most disappointing. Said a former Congress Minister of Uttar Pradesh: What Rahul Gandhi has repeatedly shown is that he can come up with the odd dramatic initiative or two, but at no point of time has he been able to assert his credentials as a big-game player like his predecessors in the Nehru-Gandhi family, including his mother. His inability to articulate his views and tendency to say the wrong things at the most inopportune moment have forced senior leaders to come to his rescue, and this does not augur well for the party.
The senior activist pointed out that at the level of the organisation, too, the Congress was only a shadow of its past. Gone are the days when there were mass leaders at the district and State levels who supplemented the efforts of State and Central leaders. Naturally, we have a situation where many of the smaller parties in the UPA treat us as a second-class party, he said.
This multidimensional crisis in the Union government and the ruling party ought to have spurred the opposition to concerted political action that would have brought decisive political gains. But whenever the BJP leadership has sought to work towards this, skeletons have invariably tumbled out of its own cupboards. The forced removal of two Chief Ministers B.S. Yeddyurappa in Karnataka and Ramesh Pokhriyal in Uttarakhand is a case in point.
Both were removed following allegations of corruption. While Yeddyurappa was removed after an indictment by the Karnataka Lokayukta, Pokhriyal was shown the door after allegations against him within the party rose to a crescendo. These evictions seriously hampered the BJP in its campaign to highlight corruption in the Union government. Advani's Jan Chetna Yatra was essentially an effort to overcome this handicap. But the manner in which it is progressing promises no such gain.
The BJP's efficiency as a political organisation is compromised more seriously than the Congress' by the internecine warfare among senior leaders and their factions. To start with, there is the present tussle between Advani and Gujarat Chief Minister Modi over being the party's prime ministerial candidate. Then there is the long-standing jousting between Sushma Swaraj, Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, and Arun Jaitley, Leader of the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha, for greater control in political and organisational terms.
Leaders like former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Uma Bharati and Sanjay Joshi, who were once expelled from the party but were brought back by the current president, Nitin Gadkari, had once contributed in a big way to the internal tussles but are now apparently disciplined. As a senior Sangh Parivar activist from Uttar Pradesh pointed out, there is no guarantee that these tempestuous leaders will remain quiet for long.
Cumulatively, what these show is that the BJP lacks an authoritative and cohesive central leadership. Former BJP Minister Arun Shourie had referred to this through his comment exhorting the party's rank and file to bomb the headquarters, and clean up everybody from the top. It was after a series of events, including Shourie's exhortation, that the RSS moved in to appoint Gadkari, with whom the Sangh Parivar leadership has strong connections, as party president. But as is evident from the recent developments, including Modi's fast and Advani's yatra, Gadkari's appointment by itself has not had a salutary effect in controlling the power games in the party.
When Gadkari was appointed, pointed out the Uttar Pradesh-based activist, the RSS admitted that there was a crisis, and that there was a need for a disciplined leadership, but we are yet to see the emergence of the desired kind of disciplined leadership. And it is this absence, more than anything else, that prevents us from playing the role of an effective principal opposition.
Put simply, the state of play between the Congress and the BJP has practically turned on its head the conventional political wisdom on the balance of power between the ruling dispensation and the opposition. The situation where a crisis in the ruling dispensation tilting the balance in favour of the opposition or a weak opposition benefitting the ruling party is not replicated here in true form.
Amidst this fluid situation, several players on both sides are thinking in terms of a course correction that involves shuffling around the existing power centres and projecting new leaders for important positions. Thus, the names of Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar and Defence Minister A.K. Antony are circulating in Congress circles as possible replacements for Manmohan Singh. In the Sangh Parivar, the name of Gadkari himself is doing the rounds as a possible alternative prime ministerial candidate. It is all well for sections on both sides to do this kind of contemplation, but implementing it will be a different ball game altogether. That could well trigger new crises within both parties and the alliances they head.
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