The morning of October 24 saw giant- sized posters that screamed “Maharashtra Maha Aabhar ” (huge thanks) all along the route leading to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) office in Mumbai. Counting had just begun, but the BJP’s braggadocio of thanking the people for a “huge” victory seemed to ignore that. Flags fluttered from green bamboo poles every few metres, even in front of the Shiv Sena’s office.
By the evening, when it was clear that the victory was not huge, the number of flags slowly came down and pavement dwellers began helping themselves to yards of cloth emblazoned with the BJP’s lotus symbol. By late evening, chairs placed halfway across the road so that people could view the results on a giant television screen had disappeared. At night, the pavement dwellers were cosily wrapped up in their new lotus-designed sheets. The BJP office had shut shop early. At a press conference later that evening, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) party chief Sharad Pawar deflected praise and blandly, but pointedly, said: “The people of Maharashtra have rejected the BJP’s slogan of Ab ki baar, 200 paar .”
Instead of the 200 plus seats that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah claimed the party would win in Maharashtra’s 288-member Assembly, the party won only 105. Its partner, the Shiv Sena, got 56. The NCP won 54 and the Congress 44, while smaller parties won the remaining 29.
The results were clearly a reality check for the BJP. After its impressive victory in the Lok Sabha election, where it won 23 of the 48 seats, the party had become overconfident. The abrogation of Article 370 dominated the campaign; while feelings did run high on this issue, the BJP made the mistake of ignoring people’s issues.
The closure of factories, growing unemployment, inflation in the retail sector, farm distress, crop insurance issues, drought and floods and the myriad State-level issues that usually decided an Assembly election were glossed over. The results proved that hypernationalism can only get the BJP so far.
Modi addressed nine public rallies, and Amit Shah excelled himself with 16, but the duo still did not have the expected impact. Interestingly, in three of the constituencies where Modi held rallies, the alliance’s candidate lost.
The most shocking loss was that of the BJP’s Pankaja Munde, daughter of the late Gopinath Munde, who lost to her cousin Dhananjay Munde of the NCP. Modi and Amit Shah’s rallies certainly did not bring them the “ shat pratishat BJP”, or the 100 per cent BJP, that Amit Shah had predicted. In fact, for the Sena this slogan was a red rag since the party still sees Maharashtra as its fiefdom. Slogans like “ Dilli mein Narendra aur Mumbai mein Devendra” (Narendra in Delhi and Devendra [Fadnavis] in Mumbai) put the Sena on slow boil.
BJP-Sena tussle
There was perverse glee in the Sena camp at the BJP’s poor showing. “Everything in the election was about themselves,” said a Sena worker from Ahmednagar, referring to the BJP’s campaign. “We are partners. There should have been one party face shown for the elections but they thought they are better than us. They thought they could use us. Kai Modi magic [what Modi magic], what happened to it? And this making out of Fadnavis as if he is a god. He is just a yes-man for Delhi.”
When Fadnavis was appointed Chief Minister in 2014, the choice was a surprise because there were others who seemingly had greater claim to the chair. But that is precisely why he was chosen. A retired bureaucrat said that Fadnavis’ relative anonymity was actually his selling point: “It meant he could be moulded… he would be grateful to be picked above others and so would do Delhi’s bidding.”
But Fadnavis has not really led the State BJP in any new direction. Rumours are that although he is the Chief Minister-elect as far as his own party is concerned, he is being groomed for a future at the Centre. He seems to be on the same path as Nitin Gadkari. Both are Brahmins from Vidarbha and, most importantly, both have the blessings of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).
Following the results, Fadnavis’ position has been swinging like a pendulum. The initial understanding was that he would be back as Chief Minister, but then the Sena upped its game and bargained for a 50-50 arrangement when the combine returned to power. The Sena also laid claim to the chief ministership for Aaditya Thackeray, who won the Worli seat in Mumbai. (The party’s tally fell by only seven seats from 2014, while the BJP’s tally fell by 17 from 122 in 2014.)
“This is the worst example of political self-gratification,” said a retired bureaucrat, adding: “Governance and the promise of good governance to the citizens in the State has completely been set aside while these people battle for the chair and treat government like a mandi [market]. But having said this, if the choice is only between Fadnavis and the young Thackeray, then, really, it should be Fadnavis.”
When the idea of Aaditya Thackeray for Chief Minister received a cold response, the Sena asked for the post of Deputy Chief Minister. Its performance and the realisation that the BJP needs it to form a government has emboldened the Sena to hold the BJP to its 50-50 promise. Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray said this was agreed upon in February between him and Amit Shah when the two formally agreed to fight the elections as a team.
This essentially means equally sharing important portfolios and/or Chief Minister by rotation. On October 30, Fadnavis said there was no agreement of a 50-50 deal. This angered Uddhav Thackeray enough for him to cancel a meeting with BJP leaders on forming the government. He has also threatened to withdraw from the partnership if the BJP does not honour the 50-50 deal.
The BJP is trying to lure the Sena with important ministerial posts at the Centre instead, but Uddhav Thackeray is not biting. The BJP also has to keep happy the independent MLAs who have offered it support.
Aaditya Thackeray’s emergence
Aaditya Thackeray’s emergence on the political scene has been rather meteoric. At 29, he lacks experience but not confidence. He is vociferous, audience-savvy and is brash or courteous depending on the requirement. He studied in the cosmopolitan and elite St. Xavier’s College in Mumbai. His background is conservative Maharashtrian, but he projects the impression of being liberal and modern even to the extent of being pro-environment.
He is not only the grandson of Bal Thackeray but a political heir, which became apparent with his first political act in 2010 when he demanded that Mumbai University drop Rohinton Mistry’s Such a Long Journey from its suggested reading list. The book casts the Sena in a dim light. Copies of it were burnt. Aaditya Thackeray had arrived. The Dussehra rally has always been a Sena celebration, and in 2010 Aaditya Thackeray was declared the head of the Yuva Sena, the party’s youth wing.
This injection of fresh blood is something of a relief to the party. Uddhav Thackeray was never a willing politician, and under him the Sena ran on old steam.
The surprisingly good performance by the opposition this time has once again resurrected the old story of a possible Sena-NCP alliance. The Sena itself keeps the rumour of an alliance with the NCP alive by taunting the BJP time and again and by rallying around Pawar whenever the BJP targets him. A tie-up remains possible but unlikely—possible because of Pawar’s ties with Bal Thackeray but unlikely since the Sena is on a good wicket with the BJP and has even strengthened its Hindutva stance by harping on the construction of the Ram temple.
The Sena could easily get the numbers it needs to form the government along with the Congress-NCP, but it is hedging its bets. It has been a BJP ally for more than 25 years. Besides, the Sena sees the advantages of being the partner of a party that is in power at the Centre. Ideologically too, it has more in common with the BJP than with the Congress and the NCP.
On the flip side, Sena workers are irritated with the BJP as they think it is condescending towards their party and their leadership.
For the Sena, being a Maharashtrian is still a very strong pull, and the NCP and Congress are seen as aapla manoos (our people). The BJP is viewed as a “Gujju party” because of the dominance of the Gujarati leaders Modi and Amit Shah. Indeed, at one point, this Gujarati-Maharashtrian divide caused discord in the party’s State unit but that was quickly resolved.
Respect is a word that floated around a lot after the results. Uddhav Thackeray fumed that he was not getting enough of it, while the BJP felt that the Sena did not accord Modi and Amit Shah the reverential treatment they deserve. To make matters worse, the Sena has behaved ambivalently throughout the election, often taunting the BJP and behaving as if the two were on opposite sides.
But in the final analysis, it may be political suicide for the Sena to walk away from the BJP. The BJP is on the rise and the Sena needs to hitch its wagon to it. As for the BJP, this election has shown yet again that it is not strong enough on its own in Maharashtra and that it needs the Sena.
Defectors defeated
While caste is an acknowledged feature during elections, a new and mysterious dimension broadly referred to as “purity” appeared on the scene. And it was all to do with the BJP taking into its fold defectors from “impure” parties such as the Congress and the NCP. In both the elections this year, the BJP fell prey to the numbers game and welcomed defectors from all parties. The strategy was to decimate other parties and strengthen itself.
Given that the Congress and the NCP have been faltering, the BJP’s calculation was that embracing defectors would deal a crippling body blow to both parties. Instead, it ended up angering hardcore BJP and RSS supporters, who were disgusted with the random intake.
One person who has volunteered with the RSS for decades told Frontline that “the purity of the party has been diluted by the inclusion of corrupt people from the Congress and the NCP”. He said he refused to vote for the NCP defector in his constituency. Clearly, there has been a backlash from voters: 19 of the 35 defectors lost.
Rural-urban divide
As always, there was a rural-urban divide in terms of campaign issues. Hypernationalistic issues such as Article 370 and the Sena’s rhetoric on building the Ram temple in Ayodhya found little resonance in rural areas, where the focus was on more pressing issues such as floods, droughts and the availability of government assistance.
The elections in western Maharashtra were of particular interest since the region had become a prestige issue for both the NCP and the BJP since it is an NCP bastion.
Pawar was specifically targeted by the BJP in this election. The Enforcement Directorate brought charges against him in a cooperative bank scam case and uncovered his party member Praful Patel’s involvement with a gangster named Iqbal Mirchi, who died in 2013. He also had to handle internal problems such as his nephew Ajit Pawar’s sudden resignation as MLA. He represented Baramati in the Assembly.
Strongman Sharad Pawar
It is almost impossible not to use the term old warhorse in connection with Sharad Pawar and his retaining of western Maharashtra, especially given that the region’s 12 Lok Sabha seats had gone to the BJP just a few months ago primarily because of high-profile defections.
Persistent campaigning and appropriate choice of candidates by Pawar ensured that western Maharashtra gave his party a thumbs up in the election. Voters in the key seats of Ahmednagar, Pune, Satara, Kolhapur and Solapur brought the NCP back into the reckoning. Ahmednagar and Satara must have been particularly gratifying to Sharad Pawar since Ahmednagar is where the sugar cooperative movement was born and the Vikhe Patil clan was at the heart of it.
Before the Lok Sabha election, Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil, a veteran Congressman, shifted to the BJP and won. For the NCP to win the Ahmednagar Assembly seat would have been an affront to Vikhe Patil and a joy to Pawar. The case of Satara was similar, where Udayanraje Bhosale, the sitting NCP MP, shifted to the BJP after winning the Lok Sabha election. The Election Commission order a byelection for the seat, and Pawar fielded his old friend and former Sikkim Governor Shriniwas Patil, who defeated Bhosale by over 83,000 votes. Thus, in Satara the NCP holds both the Lok Sabha and the Assembly seats.
Urban Maharashtra, especially Mumbai and Thane, came to the BJP’s rescue. The party’s nationalist slogans found favour with voters in these areas. The party also gained from the diminished presence of the Congress and the NCP’s lack of urban appeal.
The Congress, which also benefited in rural areas from Pawar’s image, used to have a strong urban presence, but it has eroded. There are varying opinions on the reasons behind this—from unnecessary interference by Delhi regarding the choice of local-level leaders to the frustration of local leaders over their not being given a free hand in handling issues.
The Maharashtra Congress felt rudderless during this campaign. Rahul Gandhi addressed five disappointing rallies while Sonia and Priyanka Gandhi did not even visit the State. The burden fell on Pawar to keep both parties buoyant, and he has emerged as the leader of both.
The mandate is a wake-up call for the Congress and the NCP. Despite running a lacklustre campaign and almost believing in their own defeat from the start, both parties were given an encouraging boost by voters. It is a clear call by citizens who see the need for not only a strong opposition but perhaps even a change of government. Currently, Pawar is the only leader.He turns 79 in December; it is unreasonable and impractical to expect much more from him. Pawar has himself accepted that his party needs new faces and that the NCP needs to work on its urban appeal.
Surprise element
A surprise element of the election was the sudden decision of Raj Thackeray to field candidates from his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). He had refused to contest the Lok Sabha election and had said at the time that he would stay away from the Assembly election too, but apparently he had been advised that this would demoralise party cadres. Raj Thackeray was perhaps as surprised as everyone else when the MNS won one seat.
Raj Thackeray’s political career has been on the downswing for a few years now, and he is dangerously close to becoming a non-entity. Given his lineage and his natural political instincts, it would seem logical for him to merge the MNS with the Sena and rocket back into public consciousness. But if he does so, he will then have to play second fiddle to Aaditya Thackeray, a fact that leaves him in a quandary.
Dalits and minorities
Dalits and Muslims achieved nothing significant in this election. The Dalit leader Ramdas Athawale has joined hands with the BJP-Sena combine to stay relevant. Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) did not win any seat, while Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) won two.
However, although the VBA did not win any seat, it still enjoys some clout. The Congress has alleged that the VBA spoiled its chances of forming the government. Congress State spokesperson Sachin Sawant blamed Ambedkar for the coalition’s defeat in as many as 25 seats.
According to him, the VBA polled more than 24 lakh votes and stood second in 10 constituencies. It contested 242 Assembly seats in vain. In the Lok Sabha election, the VBA had polled 41 lakh votes but did not win any seat.
Countering Sawant’s allegation, Ambedkar said that the Congress and the NCP ruined his party’s chances in constituencies such as Akot and Murtizapur by fielding candidates.
During the Lok Sabha election, the VBA and the AIMIM had joined hands to make a point about representing groups that have weak political voices. That experiment could not be taken forward owing to several factors.
Ambedkar has a distaste for the Congress and the NCP. He says that he was put off by the manner in which the two reached out to the Sena, but a source in the Congress said that being a seasoned politician he should know that “it is all part of the game”. In the end, the saffron alliance gained.
As far as the AIMIM is concerned, it contested 44 of the 288 seats and won two. But they were not the same two it won in 2014. Owaisi is clear that he wants to give Muslims a credible choice during elections and to send a message to other parties that they cannot take Muslim voters for granted. Earlier, parties would seek out the Muslim vote but that has been abandoned.
The main takeaway of this election has been something that every politician knows or ought to know: never underestimate one’s opponent.
Clearly, the BJP was on such a high that it had distanced itself from reality and ended up with a reduced mandate. It allowed Pawar, who ran a spirited campaign all over the State, to make the NCP and the Congress a relevant Opposition again.
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