The Congress elbowed out the B har atiya Janata Party (BJP), which was in power for three terms from 2003, in the Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, but the victory was not emphatic. Despite having enough ammunition such as an agrarian distress, the spectre of a scam and high unemployment to pulverise the incumbent, on counting day, the Congress was limping to reach the magic number of 116 seats in the 230-member Assembly, often staring at defeat as the BJP appeared to surge ahead. It ended its run at 114 seats, needing the support of the Samajwadi Party (S.P.) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to form the government.
No doubt the electoral outcome was significant in that it lifted the flagging spirit of Congress cadres, but it calls for introspection rather than celebration. The Congress leadership needs to address its persisting inability to be a fierce attacker, especially in a State like Madhya Pradesh where a thumping byelection victory in Jhabua-Ratlam Lok Sabha seat in 2015 ensured that it did not have to start from scratch.
Throughout the election season, the Congress highlighted the failures of the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government. Now the party has to take into account the fact that it was a negative vote for the BJP that propelled it to power. Success in power will come about with a coherent narrative based on an achievable economic model.
Although Kamal Nath, Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s successor as Chief Minister of the State, tweeted 40 questions to him on the ills plaguing health, infrastructure and other sectors, and Congress president Rahul Gandhi and the party’s Member of Parliament Jyotiraditya Scindia raised the pitch on farmers’ woes and the lack of jobs, none of them enunciated how the Congress, given a chance to rule, would resolve these complex issues.
Emulating dole out politics
At best, the Congress emulated the “dole out” politics of Shivraj Singh Chouhan, which accorded primacy to incentives. It committed itself to raising the upper ceiling of existing sops. Its manifesto promised that the assistance given to below poverty line (BPL) families to build houses would be upped from Rs.1.5-2.5 lakh to Rs.3 lakh while students who scored above 70 per cent would be given free laptops in addition to the free college education they are currently entitled to. While this sort of politics could act as a magnet for the disadvantaged, as the loan-ridden farmers proved by voting decisively for the Congress, it cannot serve as an inspiration to those disillusioned with the political class. That may well be the reason why the 5.42 lakh voters, disillusioned as they were with the BJP government, and seemingly also with the Centre, preferred NOTA (none of the above) on their ballot paper, but not the Congress.
Another factor that averted the BJP’s total collapse was the personal goodwill enjoyed by Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who had cultivated the image of a “farmer’s son” for himself, relatable in a State where agriculture is the main source of income for 70 per cent of the population. While 13 of his Cabinet Ministers lost at the hustings, he was re-elected from Budhni with a comfortable lead of 58,999 votes over former Pradesh Congress Committee president Arun Yadav. His sops seemed to have reached the targeted beneficiaries fairly, and that was also the reason why, despite the general longing for badlaav , or change, the party polled 47,817 votes more than the Congress. It raked home 109 seats, 56 fewer than its 2013 tally of 165 seats, at 41 per cent of the total vote share, ahead of the Congress’ 40.9 per cent.
In the election story “Challenge before Congress” (December 7, 2018), Frontline had said that it would be a “hard combat for the Congress to turn people’s rage into votes in Madhya Pradesh, where the government’s generous sops and cash incentives have the effect of a tranquilliser”.
Farmers and tribal people moved in droves into the Congress’ fold. In the farm belt of Malwa-Nimar, which has 66 seats, the Congress increased its tally from nine to 35, while the BJP’s 2013 figure of 56 was reduced by half to 28. Independents were successful in the remaining three constituencies. The results are not astonishing. In Madhya Pradesh, where one farmer commits suicide every five hours, attraction to the Congress’ promise of loan waiver of up to Rs.2 lakh within 10 days of forming the government was natural. In its story “Farmers’ anger” (December 21, 2018), Frontline had said the Congress was expected to win 35 to 40 seats in Malwa-Nimar, while outlining the farmers’ resentment against the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana, which many of them alleged was designed to benefit the “companies”. Mandsaur, where six farmers were killed in police firing in June 2017, was a shocker for the Congress. The BJP retained seven out of the eight Assembly seats that come under the Mandsaur Lok Sabha constituency. The Congress won only the Suwarsa seat, by 350 votes.
The Congress made major inroads into the tribal-dominated Dhar, Jhabua, Alirajpur and Khargone districts. The tribal consolidation helped the party outshine the BJP in the Mahakoshal region by winning 24 of the 38 seats there, 11 more than it did in 2013. The Congress’ rebel candidate was successful in another seat. Of the eight districts in Mahakoshal, five have a predominant populations of tribal people. The BJP’s tally came down from 25 in 2013 to 13.
In the Gwalior-Chambal region, from where Jyotiraditya Scindia hails, the Congress performed exceptionally well, bagging 21 of the 27 seats. Most of its gains were at the expense of the BSP, which polled two lakh votes fewer than it did in the previous Assembly election. The BSP’s tally was confined to two as its vote share plummeted by 1.5 per cent to 5 per cent. Yet, the drubbing the Congress received in Vindhya Pradesh, where it won just six of the 30 seats, gives strength to the argument that the BSP is unexpendable to it in the State. Soon after the election results were declared, Rahul Gandhi reminded the Prime Minister that “arrogance is fatal for a politician”. One hopes that he follows what he preaches if he manages to occupy the prime ministerial chair in 2019. The BSP’s support, some election pundits says, could have saved the Congress from the humiliation it suffered in Vindhya Pradesh. The party should co-opt it before 2019, when the BJP, in spite of its current defeat, will offer it a formidable challenge in the State’s 29 Lok Sabha constituencies. The Congress currently has only two MPs in Madhya Pradesh, Kamal Nath from Chhindwara and Jyotiraditya Scindia from Guna.
A major relief for the Congress is that the electoral outcome in the State has demonstrated that the supremacy of Hindutva over caste groups, heralded by Narendra Modi in the 2014 general election and perfected in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh election, has lost steam. Hindutva worked for the party while it was in the opposition and the perception of a mass loot by the United Progressive Alliance-II government was dominant. But after Modi’s four and a half years in office, spent mostly in alienating Dalits, disappointing the Other Backward Classes, and parading the futility of his flagship Smart City and Swachh Bharat projects, a rainbow Hindu consolidation will now elude the BJP, or at least did so in Madhya Pradesh.
Uttar Pradesh Chef Minister Yogi Adityanath did talk about “Ali and Bajrangbali” during his campaign in the State, and BJP spokesperson Sambit Patra attempted to distort Kamal Nath’s comment on the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh, but there was no windfall gain. One of the reasons is that the Congress has, at least in Madhya Pradesh, imbibed much of the BJP’s politics, braiding the economic flashpoints in its manifesto with the religious, such as its pledge to build gau shala s and a “Ram Van Gaman Path”, the path Rama is believed to have taken during his vanvas , or self-exile in the forest. It has all but repudiated secular politics.
In comparison to the BJP’s nomination of one Muslim candidate, the Congress fielded three Muslims, but its campaign offered only a glimmer of recognition to the burning issues facing the Muslim community, such as mob lynching.
Demonetisation and the impact of goods and services tax also escalated the BJP’s undoing. Traders and the urban poor, who bore the brunt of these, seem to be shifting allegiance from the BJP. This is bound to benefit the Congress in States where it is locked in a straight fight with the saffron party. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP’s tally in the urban constituencies reduced from 44 in 2013 to 27; the Congress’ increased from three to 19. In rural constituencies, the Congress scored 94, a distinct lead over the BJP’s 81.
Yet, the Congress needs to quickly deliver in order to hold on to the new signs of recovery it has shown in the State’s electoral arena. Its narrow victory over the BJP has given it hope but no guarantees.
