The results of the European Union-wide elections held over four days at the start of June have confirmed the pollsters’ bleak prognosis: that of significant gains for the far right.
Despite claims by European Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen that the centre has held, the new parliament that will convene in Strasbourg, France in July will be one that tilts emphatically to the right. The “moderate” conservatives and Christian Democrats of the European People’s Party group have reinforced their position as the largest bloc, with 190 seats (up by 14). However, the real story of the elections relates to the gains made by formations on the radical and far right.
Between them, the European Conservatives and Reformists and the neo-fascist alliance known as Identity and Democracy (ID) now control 134 seats in the 720-member European Parliament, a total just short of the 136 seats won by the Social Democrat bloc S&D. When one stirs in the 15 seats garnered by Germany’s neo-fascist Alternative für Deustchland (AfD), summarily ejected from the ID bloc on the eve of the elections following pro-Nazi comments by its leader, the overall advance made by Europe’s far right becomes clearer. And that’s before the 11 seats won by the Fidesz party of Viktor Orban in Hungary are factored into the equation.
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To put it bluntly, if the far right were to form a single group, it would constitute the second-largest bloc in the European Parliament.
Chief losers
The election’s chief losers have been Renew Europe, the “liberal”, free-enterprise-friendly group in which French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party plays a prominent role, and the Greens/EFA coalition of green and regionalist parties. Renew Europe lost 22 seats, reducing its strength to 80; the Greens saw their tally fall by 19, to just 52 seats.
The Left in the European Parliament alliance of anti-capitalist forces has been able to slightly increase its strength, its tally of seats rising by 2 (to a total of 39).
There can be little doubt about the headline story of these elections: the stomping advance made by France’s neo-fascist far right. After decades of assiduous scheming and efforts to “detoxify” its public face, the Marine Le Pen-led formation now known as the Rassemblement National (RN, or National Rally) has just plunged France into political turmoil by topping the elections, with 31.4 per cent of the vote. Piqued by the poor performance of his own list, Réveiller Europe, placed third with a dismal vote share of just 13.8 per cent, President Macron has dissolved the French national parliament and called snap elections for the end of June. This high-stakes gamble, redolent of the glory days of the Bourbon monarchy (think Louis XV and “après moi, le deluge”), has now unleashed a frenzy of turmoil, with farcical flourishes, within France’s political establishment.
Germany, too, has witnessed a powerful surge by its own far right formation, the avowedly neo-Nazi AfD, which won close to 16 per cent of the vote. Taken together with the collapse of the German Greens, a core constituent, along with the free-market Free Democratic Party, of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s “traffic light” (red, yellow, green) coalition, this development will put further pressure on Germany’s dominant status within the European Union while encouraging Scholz to concede further ground to racist, anti-immigrant and ultra-nationalist forces.
Meloni’s charm offensive
As troubles accumulate within the Franco-German partnership, long extolled as the engine of European integration, the attention of EU movers and shakers seems to be shifting south to sun-drenched Italy, where Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her neo-fascist Brothers of Italy party have emerged from the European elections with pennants soaring. Untroubled by any significant opposition from what would once have constituted Italy’s political mainstream, Meloni and the Brothers seized the elections as a chance to land blows on their coalition partner and principal far right rival, the Lega (formerly the Northern League) led by Matteo Salvini. The gamble paid off, the Brothers taking 28.76 per cent of the national vote against the Lega’s 9 per cent.
Since coming to power in 2022, Meloni has artfully contrived to woo Europe’s political mainstream, conducting a charm offensive targeting Brussels bureaucrats, party leaders, think-tanks, and credulous journalists fixated on the need for stability at almost any cost. A key element in the resulting normalisation of a far right politician who has made no secret of her extremist take on a range of issues, from abortion and homosexual rights to racism and immigration, has been Meloni’s readiness to retreat from what was once a sine qua non of Europe’s far right: hostility to the EU and rejection of the very notion of European integration. This putative break with the past has been enough to persuade key players, von der Leyen prominent among them, that the canny Italian leader is not only a regular politician with whom deals can be done but also a potential kingmaker.
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The readiness of the wider European far right to break with, or tone down, its traditional Euroscepticism is now emerging as a strategic shift. Asked in a French pre-election TV debate why the Rassemblement National had now ditched its longstanding demand for a referendum on leaving the EU, party president Jordan Bardella, who leads the party’s contingent at Strasbourg, replied, “you don’t quit the negotiating table when you are about to win.” Across the continent, the variegated forces of the extreme right now seem intent on operating and communicating in ways that seem compatible with EU institutions.
The willingness of key EU players to reciprocate these advances is already apparent. The drum-beating, immigration-averse Ursula von der Leyen, bent on retaining her job in the wake of the elections, seems particularly receptive to a stress-free accommodation of the far right. But the drive to normalise goes much deeper than the whims and ambitions of individuals. Notwithstanding mainstream media efforts to put a gloss on the situation, exemplified by the Economist’s gushing pre-election endorsement of Meloni, Le Pen, and von der Leyen as “the three women who will shape Europe” there is much that is deeply troubling about the EU’s current direction of travel.
Susan Ram has spent much of her life viewing the world from different geographical locations. Born in London, she studied politics and international relations before setting off for South Asia: first to Nepal, and then to India, where fieldwork in Tamil Nadu developed into 20 years of residence.
