Challenges before London police

The technological advances that helped the police identify the bombers notwithstanding, the underground rail network remains highly vulnerable to terrorist attack.

AS I begin to write this column, BBC breaks the news that a man was shot dead by the police at the Stockwell tube station in south London on July 22, after a dramatic chase. There is only vague information that the killed man was possibly an Asian who had escaped after taking part in the second wave of attacks that took place on July 21. This is yet to be confirmed. The developments of the past two days will have to be viewed in the context of the July 7 explosions in which more than 50 people lost their lives.

There is a lot of similarity between the July 7 and 21 explosions. In both, there were four sites that were targeted; three underground stations and a bus. Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) had been used in both. Further, they were carried by the miscreants in rucksacks. While all the four devices were successfully detonated on July 7, the whole operation on July 21 was a flop, when only two of the four detonators were initiated, which also never ignited the explosives. One did not detonate at all, and the fourth was only partially detonated. Naturally, on July 21, there was just one casualty.

Unlike July 7, the disruption of the transport system on July 21 was only partial. The terrorist was nevertheless able to achieve his objective of causing some chaos in a large city that depends heavily on public transport. About three million people use the tube every day. The peak-hour commuters alone account for half a million.

Although a climate of fear is enveloping Londoners, there is no visible widespread scare. Viewed in this light, the terrorist attack on July 21, unlike the July 7 operation, has been a clear failure. Will this failure deter him from indulging in future adventures? Nobody believes so. He will continue to strike, hoping to promote disaffection against the government and its Iraq policy. As it had been often said earlier - mainly in the context of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) terrorist - his targets will have to be lucky all the time, whereas he himself needs to be lucky just once.

At a press conference within hours of the July 21 incident, Sir Ian Blair, the Metropolitan Commissioner, was specifically questioned as to what kind of control the police had over the situation. Blair responded by saying that the control was one of public alertness and public confidence in the police. This could be easily mistaken to be semantics that was intended to mask police despair and helplessness. The truth is that the best of police forces in the world cannot prevent a terrorist attack all the time in an age where misguided and fanatical youth are willing to blow themselves up, mindless of the fact that they were breadwinners on whom their families depended for material and emotional support. Remember, one of the July 7 bombers, Lindsay, was already a father, and his wife was carrying their second baby.

The July 21 incidents clearly prove that Londoners have a hard time ahead. The terrorist potential to circulate fear with or without killing innocent members of the public remains intact. The July 7 investigation has established that the link with Pakistan is strong. (This is in contrast with the Madrid explosion where terrorist inspiration and assistance came from the North African Muslim groups.)

Three of the four bombers of that day had visited Pakistan in the recent past and were possibly trained there. There is, therefore, no hope for peace in London or in the rest of United Kingdom (U.K.) without this link being demolished. Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's statement that the problem centred on those militants living in the U.K. and not Pakistan seems wide off the mark. It may not exactly please Prime Minister Tony Blair or the U.K. Police.

President Musharraf's stand is possibly traceable to the fact that the U.K. is home to a number of fanatical clerics. Omar Bakri Mohammed is one of them. In an Islamic web site, he was recently quoted saying that "July 7 is not the first and will not be the last". Can there be a more incendiary pronouncement? One other fundamentalist who has come to notice is Abu Qatada, who is described by Spanish authorities as bin Laden's "spiritual ambassador in Europe." Qatada faces a 15-year jail term in Jordan for terrorist offences. The U.K. government would very much like to deport such clerics, many of whom have a foreign nationality but have a permit to stay in the country indefinitely. The procedure for deportation is tortuous and can go on for decades. This is why Omar Bakri and men like him indulge freely in pyrotechnics.

The government is contemplating legislation against such open support to violence that will help to haul them up. The point to remember is that promulgation of such a law and action under it against those who glorify bin Laden could further alienate sections of the Muslim community from the government.

There is, however, striking unanimity among political parties in the U.K. at this moment, that all differences should be cast aside and the government supported in all its moves. The other positive feature of the scene is the progress made by the police in what by all accounts is a difficult investigation through hard and methodical work. All the four suicide bombers involved in the 7/7 operations have been identified. This was possible mainly because of the documents recovered from one of the bombers. Also, the mother of one bomber chose to call the police to enquire about her missing son, and an immediate link was established with the crime. The mastermind for the dastardly act is yet to be identified, although a chemical engineer, Magdy el Nashar, who was pursuing a Ph.D at Leeds, is suspected and is being held by the Egyptian police for questioning. There is speculation that he may have just assisted in preparing the explosive devices, and there is possibly another person in or outside the U.K. who had inspired the 7/7 attacks.

Police have circulated the closed circuit television (CCTV) images of four men suspected for the July 21 bombings. It is possible that some clues have been obtained from the body of the person shot dead on July 22 at the Stockwell tube station. What is most remarkable is the utility of CCTV cameras installed in public places in facilitating difficult police investigations that involve the fixing of identity from among a large number of people found in centres such as railway stations and shopping malls. The pictures made public by the London police, after being culled out from CCTV recordings, have been strikingly clear. While the whole process of viewing hours and hours of footage should have been exhausting, the rewards have been worth the labour put in.

There are plans to increase the number of cameras all over London, especially at tube stations. This is something that the Indian police will have to consider seriously. Its resort to CCTV has been very modest. I know that there will be a howl of criticism that the police and the government could misuse extensive coverage of activities in public places. I do not dismiss such fears as imaginary. But in view of the growing tentacles of groups, which do not believe in democracy or civilised behaviour, is there an alternative to devices such as CCTV? The benefit of being able to protect law-abiding innocent citizens against the mindless terrorist far outweighs the danger of misuse of a valuable modern aid to police investigation.

The next important issue posed by the London happenings is how the police are going to protect citizens who use the underground. The world over such a network is going to expand because the system is swift and is able to substantially take the load off road traffic, especially during rush hours. By its very nature, the underground railway is more vulnerable than the overground system to terrorist attacks, which are carried out mostly through leaving explosives in compartments with a timing device (except where suicide bombers are involved). In view of the massive numbers of commuters using the system, it is preposterous to think in terms of individual baggage or body check as is done at airports. The only practical measure will be to require every passenger to go through a door-type metal detector. This also bristles with a lot of problems during a peak-hour commuter traffic. Also, how effective such a device will be in detecting bombs, especially of the plastic variety, is a matter of doubt. It is this no-win situation that enhances the prospect of a more frequent use of the underground transport system by terrorists to perpetrate their violence.

THERE is a valid charge that intelligence agencies are unable to predict terrorist plans. This has been discussed at several fora without any effective strategies emerging. Most of the attacks beginning with 9/11 have been the handiwork of Islamic terrorists. This is no slur on the community as a whole. Nobody accuses the religion of promoting terrorism. It is sad, however, that all those who have been arrested or strongly suspect for the major happenings have been Muslims. A large number of treatises have been written on the subject. Although some of them have been fuzzy, there is reasonable clarity that some criminal elements have used the ploy of protecting Islam with a view to indulging in atrocities. They could not care less that their actions might result in victimisation of a large number of Muslims themselves. It is against this backdrop that intelligence agencies will have to go about the task of infiltrating influential sections of the community for collecting valuable information. When very few enlightened Muslim leaders, who are genuinely opposed to terrorism, are willing to come forward with open criticism of those indulging in violence, how can you expect anyone in the community to tip off the police on terrorist plans of violence and disruption that they may occasionally stumble upon, purely by chance? This is why police appeals to Muslims to cooperate in rooting out terrorism hardly yield any response.

Use of listening-in devices to monitor conversations between suspects seems to be the only productive means available to intelligence and law-enforcement agencies.

In these days of sophisticated communication devices and the speed with which suspects are able to switch telephones render the task extremely difficult. We must also remember that the operation to monitor private telephone lines is circumscribed by rigid laws of privacy, and any exposure of violation could result in serious consequences to civil servants ordering them. The same problems are relevant to the task of looking into the e-mail traffic that flows freely within a group. And there are grounds to believe that the cyber space offers enormous opportunities for terrorists to hide themselves and still carry on with their activities. Those who criticise intelligence agencies are ignorant of the enormous legal and practical challenges involved in keeping track of terrorist elements and their designs.

To sum up the situation in London, difficult days are ahead for the Metropolitan Police and the MI5, which looks after domestic intelligence. The greatest challenge is to prevent further explosions. This will be possible only if a majority of those lurking in the country and who harbour animosity against the Blair government are identified. The task is formidable because there may be more than one group that is behind all the incidents that have happened till now. Merely banking on intelligence will be futile.

More visible policing could perhaps help to meet the challenge at least partially. This will mean more manpower for the Met and more anti-sabotage equipment such as CCTV cameras and portable explosive detectors. The Blair government seems willing to spend the money called for. It has also shown itself enthusiastic to mobilise the whole population, including Muslims, in a massive confidence-building exercise. All these are good signs that should enhance public safety in the days to go.

Meanwhile, life goes on normally. Interestingly, the Lord's is overflowing with cricket buffs, who are more focussed on England's chances of beating the Aussies in the current first Test than on what faces them on London's streets.