T he Goldilocks Policy by Professor John R. Fanchi of Texas Christian University is the depiction of a road map to a sustainable energy development plan intended as a guide in the current transition from one energy mix to another and incorporating the technological, political and geopolitical factors concerning energy generation and usage.
The title is drawn from the well-known fairy tale Goldilocks and the Three Bears in which the little girl Goldilocks always takes up a position that is just right . In this book, the author takes stock of all that is happening in relation to sustainable energy development and devises a policy framework to help the world through the present crisis and meet the rising energy demand with the least environmental burden.
Energy is essential for the improvement of the quality of life in modern times. Today, there is a clear understanding that the current modes of energy production, distribution and usage are no longer sustainable on account of their huge carbon intensity and the consequential environmental hazards. Both the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on climate change recognise that the world is currently not on track to meet the Sustainable Development Goals, including SDG 7 on energy, or to keep the global temperature rise this century below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Therefore, the global energy transformation must be accelerated to achieve the goals. At the same time, there is a deep concern that over three billion people still lack access to clean energy. To overcome these problems, the power sector needs a whole lot of decarbonisation and the traditional centralised organisation of the power system needs to be transformed to distributed and renewable generation. Smart grids, distributed photovoltaic and other renewable sources and digital technologies will be at the centre of this transformation. The proposed Goldilocks policy for energy transition is a pragmatic approach that calls for implementing changes in a manner that is not so fast that heavy damage can be inflicted on the environment or so slow that the consequences are irreversible. The subject matter is covered in five parts: introduction, climate change debate, road map to sustainable energy mix, obstacles to the adoption of a Goldilocks policy, and the future of energy.
In the introductory section, the author takes stock of the present global energy consumption pattern both in quantum and quality, its development over the years with particular reference to the developed world, the transformation that occurred in the energy mix earlier and the intricacies of the ongoing debates on climate change. The unsustainability of present-day energy production and use is brought out clearly, and the author emphasises the need for a gradual decline in the use of fossil fuels, with natural gas occupying the interim stage and paving the way for a carbon-neutral energy mix.
Although it is well accepted among mainstream scientists that the climate is changing, there is no consensus that this is mostly due to anthropogenic emissions. Rather than emissions, some regard the growing population and energy- and other resources-related pressure to be the cause and hold that the variations are nothing alarming and only a natural variation or average when considered in totality. Public sentiment is against nuclear energy and favours solar and other renewables over fossil fuels. The gradual reduction in the cost of generation of solar power is encouraging. The author also rules out the misconceptions in promoting biofuels for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The socio-economic and environmental dimensions of climate change are brought out well in the chapter titled “Is the climate change debate settled?”
The 2015 United Nations Climate Conference, Conference of Parties (COP) 21, resulted in the Paris Agreement. The book discusses COP 21, including the commitments made by most national governments, the Donald Trump administration’s negative approach to climate change citing U.S. interests and the collaborative efforts under the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative by the oil and gas industry majors.
We have to define our future energy needs and decide on the kind of energy mix that will be capable of meeting them with a negligible or positive impact on the environment. The current technologies supporting this requirement are low-carbon energy sources (wind, solar power, hydropower, biomass, nuclear and geothermal); electricity storage solutions; smart grids; network interconnections; sector coupling; demand-side management; and carbon capture, utilisation and storage.
The history of energy consumption clearly indicates a change in energy mix with time. Unfortunately, energy policy often depends on political ideology. Some people are for a transition from fossil fuels to low-carbon resources at a slow pace, citing the need to manage the transition and establish the credibility of renewables. Others advocate a faster transition on account of the fast-advancing impacts of climate change. The Goldilocks policy proposes invigorating the slow pace and clamping down on the fast pace by setting time-bound targets for the transition on the basis of historical experiences and delivering adequate, cost-effective, safe and environment-friendly energy solutions for the future.
According to the author, there are several obstacles from different quarters to the adoption of a Goldilocks policy, and its implementation is going to be a long-drawn-out process. This is what happened whenever the energy mix changed in the past. The implementation of energy policy always depends on the type of government in power. The author analyses various forms of government—capitalist, socialist-communist and democratic—and their attitude to vital issues such as energy and concludes that the energy policy pursued always favours the ruling class. With the U.S. retracting the environmental agenda of the previous administration, it is clear that nowadays business interests prevail over everything.
The last section discusses the future of energy. Climate action needs an urgent road map for a low-carbon economy. The author sees the U.N. as its natural implementer. The importance of global cooperation in this regard is evident from the statement of former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry at the COP 21 meeting. “If all the industrial nations went down to zero emissions… it wouldn’t be enough, not when more than 65 per cent of the world’s carbon pollution comes from the developing world.”
The Goldilocks policy unfolds the framework for a grand energy plan acceptable to all: a gradual and time-bound shift from fossil fuels to natural gas and hydrogen as the transition fuels and to commercial nuclear fusion by the latter half of this century. This prescription looks encouraging, but the technologies for super grid power handling, construction of natural gas pipelines and related infrastructure, establishing the techno-economic viability of hydrogen as a fuel, and technology development of nuclear fusion all have to be hastened.
The author has analysed a complex issue in its entirety and developed an efficient policy framework to guide future energy aspirations. This volume has the Goldilocks story and the Earth Charter as appendices and has good reference and index sections. Indeed, it will serve as a good reference book for energy planners, administrators, students and public policymakers.
M.P. Sukumaran Nair was formerly Secretary to the Chief Minister of Kerala and Chairman, Public Sector Restructuring & Audit Board, Kerala.
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