Rough ride ahead

Dependent as it is on other parties for survival, the P.A. government will find it hard to pursue its political agenda with regard to amending the Constitution and resolving the ethnic conflict.

OVER the last six years, one of the reasons why President Chandrika Kumaratunga's efforts to bring in a new Constitution with a view to resolving Sri Lanka's decades-old ethnic conflict were stymied was that her government did not have the required two-t hirds majority in Parliament.

The general elections of October 10 have hardly changed the situation. Kumaratunga's People's Alliance (P.A.) coalition secured 107 seats, just two more than in the last Parliament. Let alone obtaining a two-thirds majority in the House, which is an impo ssibility under the country's present election system, the P.A. fell six short of the halfway mark of 113 in the 225-seat House. The result: a hung Parliament.

After two days of hectic backroom manoeuvres that involved demands and promises regarding Cabinet portfolios, the P.A. formed a coalition government with the assistance of the Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) and the National Unity Alliance (NUA), better known as the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), both of which have four seats each in the new Parliament. Kumaratunga's own party, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, leads the alliance.

There were no real surprises in the results. After six years of being in the saddle, an erosion in the popularity of the P.A. was only to be expected, and this was reflected in the drop in its share of the vote - from 48.97 per cent in the 1994 general e lections to 45.10 per cent this time. It was also expected that the United National Party (UNP), carrying the burdens of its past and with no effective strategies for the future, would be unable to take advantage of the popular discontent against the gov ernment.

Indeed, its vote share also suffered a fall, from 44.02 per cent in 1994 to 40.21 per cent. It secured 89 seats, five less than in the last Parliament. UNP leader Ranil Wickremasinghe alleged that the drop was due to rigging and intimidation of voters in several areas including the two electoral districts of the central province, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya. But even he said that had the voting been "free and fair", the UNP and the P.A. would have only "tied". This represented a significant climbdown from hi s pre-election claim of a majority for his party.

The election also saw the re-emergence of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), this time through the ballot. The party, which led two rounds of armed uprisings against the Sri Lankan state, in 1971 and then between 1987 and 1990, won 10 seats this time, nine more than in 1994. Its success represented a reassurance that the party would now fully embrace parliamentary democracy and not revert to the violent methods that it advocated in the past. Running a disciplined and clean election campaign, the JVP m anaged to tap the disillusionment with the two main parties and took home nearly 6 per cent of the vote. Its main support came from rural youth, where the benefits of Sri Lanka's economic development have been slow to reach.

After the elections, the JVP could well have played the role of king-maker, but the party preferred to keep out. It spurned the advances of the UNP which had not given up hope of forming the government despite the fact that it was woefully short of numbe rs. Finally, it was the NUA that tilted the balance decisively in favour of the P.A. EPDP leader Douglas Devananda was quick to commit himself to President Kumaratunga when the results were announced. He thus became the first Tamil leader from the north- east to become part of a government in Colombo.

The immediate crisis was overcome, but the coalition appeared shaky. The parties that joined the PA in government after the 1994 elections were with it in a loose pre-election alliance. Later, with the Ceylon Workers' Congress joining the PA, and with th e tacit support of the EPDP, the government could bank on the support of at least 130 MPs in the House. This time, P.A. managers had to work hard to put the coalition together after the results were announced, and the cushion is no thicker than three mem bers.

In an indication that it is not going to be a smooth ride, NUA leader Rauff Hakeem fired the first shot by announcing that he was going to be a "fiercely independent" coalition partner. A day after the swearing-in of Ratnasiri Wickramanayake as Prime Min ister, Hakeem declared that he had set a 100-day deadline for the government to set up independent commissions to oversee the functioning of the police and the public services and the conduct of elections. The Constitution Bill that the government tried to push through Parliament in August had proposed the setting up of such commissions. Hakeem said he did not want the government to separate the matter of the commissions from the rest of the package. This then means that the entire constitutional reform s package would have to be passed by Parliament if the NUA leader's demands are to be met.

However, Kumaratunga may find it tougher to push the Bill through this Parliament than was the case with the last one. For one, the P.A. is not the same entity that it was in 1994. It now comprises new elements, including one decidedly hardline Sinhala p arty, the Mahajana Eksath Peramuna (MEP), which has three MPs. Its leader, Dinesh Gunawardene, who has been elected, was among those who protested outside Parliament when the government was defending the Bill inside.

Wickramanayake has also not hidden his views on the matter of the Constitution. He repeatedly asserted during the election campaign that it could not be re-introduced in its present form and would have to be rewritten with the approval of the Buddhist cl ergy. At a post-election press conference, he made the dire prediction that if the government attempted to bring back the constitutional reforms, the P.A. would split.

"Given the composition of the P.A., with all the new elements in it, they will have to reopen negotiations within the P.A. first," said Jayadeva Uyangoda, who teaches political science at Colombo University.

Given its clout in the new dispensation, the EPDP may also demand certain changes that it had wanted made to the Constitution Bill earlier. At that point the government had persuaded Devananda to propose those changes as amendments during the debate on t he Bill. Now, the government's influence with respect to the EPDP has been considerably eroded.

Unlike last time, outside the coalition the P.A. has no friends. Ranged against it are the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF), which secured five seats, and the Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO), which has four seats, besides the UNP. The fled gling Sinhala Urumaya, a hardline Sinhala party that believes that the Tamil community has no ground for grievance and that the only problem is the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), has secured one seat. So has the All Ceylon Tamil Congress (ACTC) , an openly pro-LTTE and Tamil nationalist party.

Following the failure of the Constitution Bill in the last Parliament, Kumaratunga had declared that if the P.A. did not get a two-thirds majority in the elections, all that she needed to do was convert the next Parliament into a Constituent Assembly in which the new constitution could be passed with a simple majority. But today, there are not many takers for such a course of action. Experts have warned that a Constitution passed by a simple majority could be as easily overturned by the same expedient. The UNP has threatened to take to the streets in a Yugolsavia-style uprising if Kumaratunga attempted to bypass constitutional procedures to bring in a new law.

In any case, Kumaratunga herself has not talked about a Constituent Assembly since then. Instead, she has pointed to victories won by her and the P.A. in successive elections since 1994 as mandate enough to change the Constitution without a two-thirds ma jority.

But analysts have cautioned the P.A. against taking any "unilateral" action in the light of the fractured mandate that the elections have thrown up. "...the final outcome is the true reflection of the wishes of the people. The fact that people have not g iven a steamroller majority to a single party is an indication that the constituent parties in Parliament are expected to reach a consensus on important national issues. Any dictatorial attempts by the ruling party to push through its policies will not s ucceed," commented the Daily Mirror.

THE election for the 11th Parliament was marred by violence, rigging and voter intimidation. The Elections Commission had to annul the polls in 23 centres in Kandy and Nuwara Eliya and all of Killinochchi district. Consequently, the overall results were announced after a delay of nearly a day.

According to Jehan Perera of the National Peace Council, who described the election as "flawed" owing to the violence on polling day, the need for a consensual approach was greater in the light of the fact that there was already a question mark over the legitimacy of the government. "Those who form the government should realise that they cannot go in for unilateral action, and that they do not have a mandate for bulldozing through," said Perera.

Even if the coalition pulls through, the political deadlock seems set to continue for a few years - unless Kumaratunga produces some magic solution.

With regard to the LTTE, Kumaratunga stated that her government would continue an all-out war against the separatist group. Kumaratunga suggested that the time for negotiations with the LTTE had passed. She was emphatic that the army was now capable of h anding the terrorist group a decisive military defeat. Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar said that the initiative by Norway to facilitate a dialogue between the LTTE and the Sri Lankan government has been put on hold.

So at least for the foreseeable future, it seems that Sri Lanka is looking at more war. And any path-breaking political developments towards the resolution of the ethnic conflict are unlikely.