Peace in the air

Published : Jul 21, 2001 00:00 IST

The waning influence of Jonas Savimbi and his UNITA guerilla group raises hopes of lasting peace in Angola, and the government starts thinking in terms of reconstruction.

JOHN CHERIAN in Luanda and Benguela

LUANDA, the capital of Angola, accommodates about three million people, about one-fourth of the country's population. Many of the city's residents are internal refugees, driven by the brutal and unceasing war that had erupted even before the country was liberated in 1975. The war has left visible repercussions. Disabled war veterans and people who lost their limbs in the minefields of Angola are seen begging at street corners. Angola has six million landmines laid across it - one of the biggest concentrations of landmines in the world.

Still, Luanda remains one of the safest cities in Africa. It is also picturesque, with its beaches, and a number of buildings constructed by the European colonisers.

Luanda and the towns of Benguela and Lubito give the impression that Angolans are determined to look ahead. The civil war shows signs of spluttering to a halt. Jonas Savimbi, the leader of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), has given broad hints that he is ready to resume talks with the government led by the People's Liberation Movement of Angola (MPLA). The veteran guerilla leader still retains a foothold on Angolan territory, but the general feeling in the region is that the days of UNITA as an effective fighting force are over. The beleaguered Savimbi hoped that the assumption of office by a Republican administration in Washington would lead to an upswing in his fortunes. Some prominent figures in the George W. Bush administration were avid backers of UNITA in the 1970s and 1980s. During their earlier regimes, the Republicans had supplied Savimbi with state-of-the-art armaments and communication equipment. The MPLA government was supported by the Soviet Union and Cuba.

But those were the Cold War days. The Bush administration has now signalled that it is fully behind the Angolan government. Even during the Cold War days U.S. oil companies were doing good business in Angola. Now, with new discoveries of bigger oil and gas deposits, the West hopes to do even more lucrative business with what is described by many people as potentially the wealthiest country in Africa.

The government gives the impression that for all practical purposes the war is over. It does not give much credence to Savimbi's attempt to reopen dialogue. It has not forgotten its bitter experiences with the "double-dealing" Savimbi. People are generally disillusioned with his actions. The events after the 1992 elections are still fresh in their collective memory. After losing the elections, Savimbi relaunched the civil war with renewed vigour, using the gains UNITA had made from the sale of illicitly mined diamonds. Despite United Nations sanctions, UNITA made billions of dollars by smuggling diamonds into the international market. A U.N. estimate puts the figure at $4 billion. This money helped UNITA buy sophisticated weaponry from the international arms bazaar.

Angolans, who had hoped for a genuine dawn of peace after the multi-party elections, were shattered by their experiences with democracy. It is no wonder that the average Angolan is not too enthused about the presidential and parliamentary elections that are due next year. Some small parties have come up but the ruling MPLA towers above the rest. UNITA had split in the early 1990s and many of its prominent members joined the government of national unity.

Tourism Minister Jorge Alicerces Valentin, who was a close ally of Savimbi, is one of the senior members of the Angolan government now. He told Frontline that the civil strife was fuelled by the politics of the Cold War as the two competing blocs found the position of Angola "very strategic". According to him, the MPLA and UNITA had agreed in 1989 for the establishment of a multi-party system. Unfortunately, he said, the results of the 1992 elections had only exacerbated the political and military turmoil.

Valentin expects the government of national unity to stay on after the elections as Angolans "do not want to repeat the mistakes of the 1992 elections". He said: "The spirit of the national reconciliation government should remain after the elections. The spirit of winning and losing should not be there. We have to go through a transition period for stability."

According to Valentin, although UNITA lost both the presidential and parliamentary elections in 1992, it secured a substantial share of votes. "Unfortunately, some leaders were gambling on total victory and not willing to share power. The UNITA leader felt that the results were not good enough. If he had gracefully accepted the results, he would have been in power after four years," said Valentin.

Savimbi had another chance to get into the national mainstream when an agreement for a truce, to be monitored by the U.N., was signed in Lusaka in 1994. The agreement called for the creation of a single army and a government of national unity. Savimbi reneged on it and launched an audacious war in 1998. At one point of time during the war, UNITA gained control of more than 70 per cent of Angolan territory, including the major towns of Quito and Huambo.

The Angolan government's present position is that there is no need for a new round of peace talks. It maintains that UNITA should return to the peace process under the Lusaka accords. But it no longer calls for the trial of Savimbi for war crimes. It has also promised that Savimbi will be treated like other UNITA members who have surrendered. President Eduardo dos Santos said recently that he was for consensual solutions and challenged Savimbi "to say when he is going to stop the war and how he intends to implement the Lusaka protocol". But a senior leader who defected from UNITA recently was quoted as saying that Savimbi never had the intention of holding talks with the government. Savimbi's recent statements were aimed at "fooling the Angolan people and the international community", according to him.

The government forces have turned the tide against the rebels and are in control of more than 95 per cent of the territory. UNITA is isolated internationally. Until recently, countries such as Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Togo and Zambia had extended tacit support to UNITA, mostly in exchange for diamonds and hard cash. Today, with the exception of Burkina Faso, the countries in the region are solidly behind the Angolan government.

"The war is over for all practical purposes," said Valentin. He, however, acknowledged that UNITA forces had a scattered presence in the countryside. There have been reports of hit-and-run raids and random kidnappings by them. The Minister stressed the importance of concentrating on developing the rural areas so that Savimbi's influence in some pockets is neutralised. "Strengthening the social sector and the small industries in the countryside is the need of the hour," said Valentin.

The Minister said that unless the people had a say in matters relating to their destiny, it would be difficult to bring lasting peace. The country was awash with diamonds, he said, and "anybody can pick up a diamond and exchange it for a Kalashnikov. It is very easy for guerilla groups to pick up guns." According to him, the guerilla groups get sophisticated weapons from some East European countries. But he emphasised that the future for Savimbi was bleak. The Minister said that most UNITA cadres had deserted Savimbi, unhappy with his individualistic style of functioning. "They want to give up the gun and compete politically for power. And most of the country has irrevocably opted for peace and national reconciliation."

Valentin predicts that Savimbi can, at the most, fight on for one year. There are reports that UNITA guerillas have started raiding remote villages in search of food. "They have to steal to survive," said a government official.

Valentin said that the international community had expressed its confidence in Angola by beginning to invest in the country. "Angola is the place to invest in now. The laws of the land guarantee the security of foreign investments and there is no element of risk involved."

With its beautiful 1,000-km-long coastline, vast rainforests and rich wildlife, Angola has the potential to be an international tourist centre. Valentin wants Indian expertise and investment in the tourism industry, especially in the hotel sector. The dearth of hotels in Luanda and other cities has made Angola an expensive place for a foreign visitor.

Valentin pointed out that Angola was rich in agriculture. Before independence it used to export food, including coffee. "The experience of India in agriculture would be invaluable for us," he said.

He praised India for the help given during the decolonisation struggle in southern Africa. "India has good experience in solving problems. The liberation of Goa, Daman and Diu was a signal for us to start our struggle against the Portuguese colonialists," said Valentin.

He said that Indian help would be invaluable in the reconstruction of the country. "Bridges, roads and cities will have to be rebuilt." The humanitarian problems caused by the war persist. The health and education sectors are the worst casualties. Angola has two and a half million displaced people. Two million Angolans are dependent on food aid, and only half of their current needs have been met. The railway line that once linked Angola to Zambia and beyond has been reduced to a pathetic state. Only 30 km of it functions, helping to haul people and goods between Benguela and Lubito. UNITA specialised in blowing up railway tracks and bridges. In the last week of June, UNITA forces tried to shoot down two planes carrying food aid to the beleaguered people of Kuito. Although the planes were hit, they managed to return to base.

However, the formal Angolan economy has continued to grow steadily, by an average of 6.5 per cent each year since 1995. The major reason for this growth is the spurt in oil production, which is more than a million barrels a day. The increase in global oil prices has come as a bonanza to Angola. Most of the diamond-producing areas are under government control and diamond exports have registered an increase. Last year the government earned $800 million from the export of diamonds.

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