The Venezuelan plot

The opposition parties in Venezuela, encouraged by the United States, are making moves to unseat President Hugo Chavez, whose policies are seen as posing a threat to U.S. hegemony.

PRESIDENT Hugo Chavez of Venezuela is counted among the most charismatic of world leaders today. Chavez, a former army paratrooper, who has faced the country's electorate twice in two years and won with thumping majorities, now faces a challenge from right-wing groups and a few of his erstwhile political allies. They are subtly encouraged by the conservative officials in charge of the United States administration's Latin America desk.

Soon after George Bush took office as President, the U.S. Administration put Venezuela in the firing line. Chavez, unlike many other Latin American leaders, had refused to kow-tow to Washington on major international issues. Statements by senior administration officials focussed on the danger posed to U.S. interests in the region by the policies of the Venezuelan leader.

Chavez is an ardent admirer of Cuban leader Fidel Castro though he has emphasised that he is not a Marxist. One of the first countries he visited after assuming office in 1998 was Cuba. Both countries today have strong diplomatic and political ties. Chavez dreams of once again integrating Latin American countries into one confederal entity as envisaged by the 19th century Latin American icon Simon Bolivar. Bolivar, who hailed from Venezuela, had briefly united Latin America.

Chavez is seen by the U.S. right wing as a threat to U.S. hegemony in the American continent. Chavez, while pursuing an independent foreign policy, has been careful in his dealings with the U.S. Besides, the two countries need each other. Venezuela has the sixth largest oil reserves in the world and the U.S. is its biggest customer; around 40 per cent of the U.S.' annual oil imports are from Venezuela. But this has not prevented Venezuela from selling oil to Cuba despite the continuing U.S. blockade of the island nation. In fact, since assuming office, Chavez has expanded the country's oil export, doubling its value between 1998 and 2000.

Chavez has also been playing an activist role in international politics. After Venezuela took over the presidency of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last year, he embarked on a vigorous diplomatic tour of member-countries of the organisation to drum up support for a united stance on stable oil prices. His visit to Iraq, the first by a head of state to the beleaguered country in a long time, symbolically broke the U.S.-imposed travel embargo on Iraq. And since then many high-level delegations, including one from India, visited Iraq, much to the annoyance of Washington.

Chavez was successful in stabilising the price and output of oil. But in the last few months, international oil prices plummeted for a variety of reasons, raising alarm in Venezuela and other countries that depend largely on oil revenues. Last month Chavez embarked on yet another whirlwind tour of oil-producing countries.

Chavez visited both OPEC and non-OPEC countries to convince them of the urgent need to curtail oil production so as to stabilise price. The trip seems to be paying dividends, as Russia, a significant holdout, has indicated that it will cut production and help boost the price of oil in the international market. Chavez's activism has not been appreciated by Washington. In recent months, domestic oil prices in the U.S. has dipped below one dollar a gallon after many years.

Washington views Chavez as someone who poses a challenge to the established order in the region. Venezuela takes a strong interest in groupings such as the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and Chavez has emphasised the need to establish a multi-polar world in order to check U.S. hegemonism. He is not afraid of taking a principled stance on matters in which the U.S. has important stakes. For instance, he has been critical of the U.S.' massive military involvement in neighbouring Colombia, ostensibly to help the Colombian government crack down on the illegal production of narcotics.

Many people in the region believe that the U.S. military presence is aimed at helping the Colombian military and right-wing militias to wage a war against the two leftist guerilla groups that have been active for more than 40 years. Chavez has maintained that he is all for finding a political solution to the long-running conflict. Any escalation of the war would have an adverse impact on Venezuela, which shares a long border with Colombia. There are more than a million illegal immigrants from Colombia in Venezuela. Besides, it is easy to shift cocoa cultivation and cocaine production from one country to another.

After the U.S. launched its so-called war against terrorism, Chavez expressed concern at the mounting civilian casualties in Afghanistan. He was also among the first to condemn the September 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. and Venezuela was among the countries that offered to share military intelligence with Washington. But the Bush Administration, prodded by the Venezuelan elite, which has reason to hate Chavez, seems to be trying to queer the pitch for the government in Caracas.

The two elite-dominated parties, which led Venezuela to the brink of ruin, have now been constitutionally confined to the political dustbin after voters overwhelmingly approved a new Constitution that effectively removed their stranglehold. Armed with new powers, Chavez has gone about implementing his campaign pledge of ushering in land reforms; the government can, by decree, seize and distribute unproductive land. A new "energy law" requires new ventures in the energy sector to have 51 per cent government participation. These moves have not been appreciated by the big landowners and businessmen, especially from North America. Wealthy Venezuelan businessmen are said to have around $120 billion salted away in overseas banks.

The right-wing opposition is trying to employ tactics eerily reminiscent of the kind used in Chile in the early 1970s by forces opposed to the government of Salvadore Allende. Sections of the army are being encouraged to subvert democracy. Despite some erosion in middle-class support in cities such as Caracas, Chavez remains the hero of the rural masses and most of the working class. There is no politician in Venezuela who can match him in popularity despite sections of the Venezuelan and U.S. media portraying him as a leader who cosies up to so-called terrorist states such as Iraq, Cuba, Iran and Libya.

Chavez has also been accused of backing the left-wing guerilla groups involved in the civil war in Colombia. His request that Vladimir Ilich Sanchez, popularly known by his nom de guerre 'Carlos the Jackal', be repatriated to Venezuela to stand trial for terrorism is being cited as yet another illustration that Chavez was soft on terrorism. Carlos, a citizen of Venezuela, is currently incarcerated for life in a high-security French prison. The majority of Venezuelans seem to be of the opinion that he will get justice only in a Venezuelan court.

A shadowy Venezuelan group with links in the U.S., which calls itself the "National Emergency Junta", has been placing advertisements in U.S. newspapers demanding that Chavez either step down or be overthrown. The Far Right in U.S. politics, which has an influential presence in the Bush administration, seems to be orchestrating these none-too-subtle moves to destabilise the popular government led by Chavez. The opposition parties in Venezuela have virtually given an ultimatum to Chavez either to reverse his recent decisions on land reforms and foreign direct investments or to resign.

Chavez has described the opposition demands as the machinations of the "elites of the old, corrupt political class". He has another five years to complete his term in office. Under the new Constitution, he can seek yet another term. From all available indications, he is going to be around for quite some time. He is expected to be the chief guest at India's Republic Day celebrations in 2002 in Delhi.