The numbers game

The intense political activity set off by the October 10 elections in Pakistan will now play itself out in the National Assembly.

FIVE weeks after the October 10 elections, the drama was all set to move from the streets of Pakistan to the floor of the National Assembly. With just hours left for nomination to the posts of Speaker and Deputy Speaker, it was expected that even if the crisis regarding a simple majority might not be resolved, some clarity would emerge at least with regard to the seating arrangements, namely, on who was allying with whom and what kind of bargain each had managed in the tough deals stuck as part of government formation.

In a country where `deals' are struck without warning, mid-November saw a flurry of activity, with king-makers and politicians of all hues sizing up each other and bargaining among themselves and with the military establishment. Each one would offer the numbers and assume tough postures in a bid to gain the maximum benefit.

The three major formations in the Assembly the so-called Grand National Alliance (GNA) of pro-Musharraf parties, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), an alliance of religious parties, and the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD), consisting of groups that have so far remained opposed to Musharraf's policies were all busy wooing each other. The group of pro-Musharraf parties, which includes the rebel Muslim Leaguers and is nicknamed the `king's party', has an edge over the rest by virtue of its being the single largest party in the Assembly and because it enjoys the patronage of the military establishment. After all, the Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam) is seen as the creation of the Musharraf establishment and it is only natural that the regime would want it to be at the helm of affairs. Notwithstanding the limited powers that the new set-up would have and despite the fact that it will be under the supervision of the President and the National Security Council, in matters of governance General Pervez Musharraf does not trust the other parties.

Under normal circumstances, the military establishment would not have had any difficulty in entertaining the alliance of religious parties. But these are not normal times. Post-September 11, the United States has a high stake in the formation of a government in Pakistan. The U.S. is unlikely to be comfortable with the prospect of religious parties, who fought the election on an anti-American platform, assuming the seat of power.

Ever since the elections, there have been enough indications that the military would be happy to see the `king's party' and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) minus its leader and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto come together to form the government in the "larger national interest". This was an ideal combination from the point of view of Washington too. But Benazir Bhutto wanted a deal on her own terms and would not settle for any thing less than the release of her husband and a guarantee that she would not be arrested upon her return to Pakistan. Musharraf was not prepared to meet those conditions.

Consequently, the inaugural session of the National Assembly was delayed for five weeks. Meanwhile, the `king's party' and the establishment tried to cobble up a majority and claimed to have mustered enough numbers to survive a vote of confidence in the National Assembly. Now the moot question is whether it can withstand the strong opposition. The deadline for filing nominations for the Speaker's post was on November 18. The day's papers were abuzz with rumours of "who spent the night with whom" a reference to late-night meetings that were held at undisclosed destinations. Sample some of them: "PML-QA considering forfeiting premiership"; "Leghari might replace Jamali"; "Fazl refuses to back out of race for PM"; "In case of MMA opposition, Aitzaz (of PPPP) and Baloch (of MMA) possible candidates for NA Speaker"; "PML-QA establishes `secret contacts' with Zardari to muster support."

Each step in the process of restoration of democracy has met with a stumbling block. The newly elected National Assembly could not be convened for weeks and no one is talking of the Provincial Assemblies yet. Time was bought and legal authority was given to get the numbers right by engineering splits and making and breaking alliances in order to get a compliant group at the helm. In a move that perplexed legal and political observers, hours before the inaugural session of the National Assembly, General Musharraf restored the suspended Constitution partially. But crucial Articles pertaining to the Senate, the Provincial Assemblies, the defection law and emergency provisions continue to be suspended.

On November 9, in what is seen as a `deal' between the Musharraf regime and the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) as part of the efforts to get a pliable government, the Musharraf regime announced the lifting of the ban on `no-go areas' in Karachi. At a juncture when each vote counts, the MQM, which has 19 seats in the National Assembly and 30-odd seats in the Sindh Provincial Assembly, is a force to reckon with. The announcement of the lifting of the ban and on immediate rehabilitation of the `displaced families' came hours after MQM chief Altaf Hussain issued a statement from London urging President Musharraf to convene a round table conference of all parties to end the political deadlock. The MQM chief's statement marked a major shift in the position of the party vis-a-vis the October 10 elections. The party had accused the Musharraf regime of helping the religious parties win a number of seats in the National Assembly and demanded fresh elections under the supervision of the United Nations. In his order, Musharraf directed the Sindh government as well as the law enforcement agencies to ensure the rehabilitation of 1,200 families that were displaced from the no-go areas of Karachi in the early 1990s. The papers of November 18 reported two things side by side: "MQM puts off support decision" and "25 MQM men (the other group) held in crackdown" in no-go areas. In the first week of November, Hussain surprised political observers by announcing that he intended to end his 10-year exile in London and return to Pakistan at the earliest. It is unclear whether it was just one of his bargaining tactics.

But it was Benazir's PPP that was hit badly by the efforts at government formation. It lost a 10-strong contingent to the king-makers. At midnight on September 14/15, the dissident leaders chose to address a news conference expressing their support to Musharraf's efforts for the `transfer of power' to a political set-up. While they swore loyalty to Benazir, the dissidents emphasised that the people had voted the party to rule and not to fight with the military and sit in the Opposition. Dissident leader Faisal Saleh Hayat ridiculed those who were demanding the withdrawal of the Musharraf laws and reminded them that the entire election process was fought under those very laws. Benazir Bhutto cannot escape responsibility for the split because her dealings with the Musharraf regime in the post-election period were marked by confusion. A case in point is the much-discussed `Legal Framework Order' (LFO) or the Musharraf version of the Constitution of Pakistan. Except the PML(Q) and its allies in the GNA, all other parties are vociferous in their opposition to the LFO. Even the oath-taking on November 16 was preceded by protests against the LFO.

But the LFO has become a major bargaining chip. On November 13, Sujhat Hussain, parliamentary party leader of the `king's party', went on record as claiming that the alliance of religious parties had agreed on 22 of the 29 amendments made by Musharraf to the suspended 1973 Constitution and expressed hope that agreement on the remaining seven amendments would be reached over the next three days. It appeared that the development had brought the alliance of religious parties closer to the seat of power. The MMA and the so-called Grand Alliance of pro-Musharraf parties seemed closer to reaching an understanding on all contentious issues on formation of government. However it turned out to be no more than a ploy to drive a wedge between the religious parties and the ARD. Earlier, the `king's party' claimed to have come pretty close to an agreement with the PPP, giving jitters to the alliance of religious parties.

The decision about nominees for the post of Speaker and the election on November 19 would hopefully set the ball rolling at the national level, when the drama will move on to the Senate elections and the Provincial Assemblies.