The Bush effect

On his first visit to East Asia, President George Bush creates anxiety in the region with his hardline statements.

PRESIDENT George W. Bush was in Japan, South Korea and China on a six-day visit in the last week of February. It was his first major international visit after his State of the Union address, which sparked a controversy because of his characterisation of Iraq, Iran and North Korea as constituting an "axis of evil". He was supposed to have visited East Asia late last year, but the trip was postponed in the aftermath of September 11. The United States' relations with Japan, China and South Korea have changed since that day: the three countries had extended full support to Washington's war on terrorism. Japan and South Korea have been allies of the U.S. right from the Cold War days, and China's support to the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan has led to a thaw in bilateral relations.

Before September 11, relations between the U.S. and China were noticeably chill. The shooting down of a Chinese fighter jet and the forced landing in Hainan of a U.S. spy plane had led to months of bickering and an exchange of tough rhetoric. The U.S.' plans to install missile defence systems in China's neighbourhood also angered the Chinese leadership. It saw the plan to implement the concept of Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) in Taiwan as an attempt to get China enmeshed in a costly arms race. The TMD would have strengthened the hands of the secessionists in the breakaway province. After September 11, these and related issues seem to have been put on the back burner by both sides.

Washington has been less vociferous than usual about the Tibet and Taiwan issues in the past few months. There has also been little criticism of Beijing's handling of the Uighur secessionist movement in Xinjiang province. China has reason to be worried about the growing U.S. military presence in Central Asian countries, with which it shares long borders. The "axis of evil" tag put on Iraq, Iran and North Korea has not found many takers in Beijing. Even Tokyo, counted as one of Washington's closest allies, has reservations about the hardline, interventionist policies of the Bush administration. Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, for diplomatic reasons, did praise President Bush's "calm and cautious" approach to foreign policy. However, even Bush's open backing of Koizumi's economic and political policies has not helped the latter boost his national stature; his popularity ratings have continued to sag.

Japanese officials have been privately expressing scepticism about U.S. policies in the region. Though the Koizumi government has toughened its stance against the North Koreans with the tacit approval of the Bush administration, any talk of U.S. military action against North Korea and Iraq alarms Japan. In December, in a highly publicised incident, the Japanese Coast Guard sank a North Korean "spy boat", killing all on board. Pyongyang denied that it was involved in the incident in any way. The action, which brought back memories of old-style Japanese militarism, alarmed countries in the neighbourhood. The Japanese action had the full backing of the U.S., which has also signalled its approval for Japanese ships to patrol the Malacca Strait. The feeling in the region is that though Japan is growing weak economically, it is becoming stronger militarily.

Bush used his Tokyo visit to give Koizumi a helping hand in his efforts to revive the Japanese economy. The fear in Washington is that the vacuum created by an economically and politically weak Japan would be filled by a resurgent China. "Let us be blunt," Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz told a gathering in Washington. "As Japan continues to struggle with deflation and a growing overhang of non-performing loans and non-performing assets, its influence gradually declines."

Bush urged Koizumi to accelerate the structural reforms programme aimed at getting the economy out of recession. In one speech, he inadvertently referred to the "devaluation issue", causing Japanese stocks to tumble further. It was later clarified that he meant "deflation".

IN South Korea, Bush's "axis of evil" statement caused much discomfiture to President Kim Dae Jung. The new U.S. policy runs counter to Kim's "sunshine policy" towards the North. The sudden reversal of U.S. policy towards North Korea stunned Seoul. President Bill Clinton, during the last months of his tenure, was seriously considering visiting Pyongyang.

Clinton's Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was given a warm welcome by the North Korean authorities a few months before Clinton left office. But Bush's harsh criticism of the North Korean government after taking office has raised temperatures in the Korean peninsula. Many South Koreans were angered at what they perceived as an unnecessary provocation by the U.S. President. Before Bush reached Seoul, protesters had rampaged through the American Chamber of Commerce in the city, chanting slogans such as "Bush don't come".

There were other forms of protests too during Bush's visit to South Korea. A Member of parliament belonging to Kim's party denounced Bush as "evil incarnate" bent on ensuring that the two Koreas never united. The Socialist Party of Korea said in a statement that the U.S. President's remarks about an "axis of evil" had "provoked shock and anti-U.S. sentiment". More than 20,000 South Korean policemen, backed by military forces on full alert, were deployed in Seoul to keep the peace during the presidential visit.

Bush told the Japanese Diet (Parliament) that he was willing to carry the war against terrorism beyond Afghanistan. "We will deter aggression against South Korea," he said. At the same time he tried to pacify South Korean sentiments by stating in Seoul that the U.S. had no intention to invade or attack North Korea and that he supported President Kim's "sunshine policy". While stating that the U.S. sincerely wanted to reopen negotiations with North Korea, he could not resist the temptation to criticise Pyongyang from South Korean soil. "I'm troubled by a regime that tolerates starvation," he said.

DURING his two-day visit to China, Bush reiterated his wish to start talking with Pyongyang. Chinese President Jiang Zemin promised him help to pursue that goal. However, Pyongyang refused to acknowledge the new U.S. offer and described Bush as a "politically backward child" bent on overthrowing the government. The Chinese President said he concurred with Bush's desire to resume contacts with Pyongyang. "We also sincerely hope that the contacts between the United States and North Korea can be resumed," said Jiang at a press conference addressed by the two leaders. He did not elaborate on the role China intended to play in bringing about a resumption of dialogue.

The Chinese leadership also made it abundantly clear that they are against the Bush administration's plan to wage war against Iraq and to isolate Iran. The public reaction to the visit has been described as tepid and lukewarm, in comparison with the rapturous welcome Clinton received three years ago. Bush did not get too many brownie points when he asked the Chinese government on state-run television to allow the freedom of religious practice. He also suggested that the Chinese, who represent one of the oldest civilisations of the world, had a lot to learn from the U.S. way of life and value systems. Senior Bush administration officials for the time being stopped describing China as a "strategic competitor".

Bush said in Beijing that he supported the "one China policy" but he carefully avoided using the word "reunification" in respect to Taiwan. The right wing of the Republican Party, to which Bush belongs, unabashedly supports Taiwanese independence. According to his National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, Bush told Jiang that he "hoped for peaceful resolution across the Straits - that there should be provocation by no one, and that he intended to live up to the Taiwan Relations Act", which authorises the U.S. to defend Taiwan in case of an attack.

The other issue that came up for discussion during the President's visit to China pertained to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Washington has accused Beijing of exporting missile technology to countries such as Pakistan and Iran. Senior U.S. officials described this as one of the important issues that had the potential to have an adverse impact on the relations between the two countries. China denied exporting weapons with dual-use capabilities or violating any weapons agreement. Beijing had signed an agreement in November 2000 to halt missile-related sales that could help any country deliver nuclear, biological or chemical weapons.