Colombian calm, for now

An immediate resumption of civil war is averted in Colombia as the Andres Pastrana government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia sign a ceasefire agreement.

AN almost palpable sense of relief descended over all of Latin America after the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) agreed on a time-table for salvaging the flagging ceasefire talks. Until the third week of January, there were all indications that the civil war would re-ignite with all its previous fury. President Andres Pastrana even announced that he was ending the talks with the FARC leadership and gave the guerillas 48 hours to withdraw from the "demilitarised zone", which was under rebel control. The Colombian Army even ringed the zone, ready to launch an offensive.

Pastrana assumed office in 1999 promising to end the four-decade-long strife. In order to kick-start peace talks, the President then gave the FARC control over an area the size of Belgium. This zone has since come to be known as "Farclandia". The guerillas already had de facto control over a large swathe of territory - comprising 40 to 50 per cent of Colombia.

But ever since the talks started three years ago, those opposed to the peace initiative have been gaining the upper hand in the government in Bogota. The United States, in the last two years, has given the Colombian military one of the biggest aid packages in recent history. In order to make things difficult for Pastrana and other well-meaning Colombian leaders who are for a peaceful solution to the civil war, the Army has been propping up right-wing militias.

Since 2001, the Army has been maintaining surveillance over the "demilitarised zone", which according to the FARC leadership went against the terms of agreement it had signed with the government. Three former members of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) were arrested by the security forces three months ago after they returned from the zone, on charges of training the left-wing guerillas in the use of sophisticated military equipment and in urban guerilla warfare.

Meanwhile, the talks between the government and the FARC reached a virtual dead-end as both sides remained inflexible on several issues. There was no sign of a ceasefire agreement although there was a highly publicised exchange of prisoners between the two sides in 2001.

At the same time, the paramilitaries, with the connivance of the armed forces, began cleansing the guerilla strongholds in the north using brutal methods, taking a leaf out of the tactics adopted by the right wing in Central American countries such as Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua in the 1970s and the 1980s.

The agreement between the FARC and the government on the "demilitarised zone" was due for renewal on January 20. Colombians were waiting with bated breath for the outcome of the tense negotiations, which had shown signs of breaking down on several occasions. Even as the talks were on, FARC members had raided a jail in a government-controlled town and freed many of its fighters. Earlier a government military patrol was ambushed, killing around 20 soldiers. Therefore, the agreement reached less than four hours before the deadline expired, calling for the immediate resumption of ceasefire talks, was viewed widely as a welcome step. The first week of April is the new deadline set for the spelling out of the terms of the ceasefire. Both sides have also agreed to the participation of an international verification commission. Priority will be given to quelling the escalating violence by the right-wing paramilitary groups and putting an end to the kidnappings by the rebels. The FARC has been held responsible for the spate of kidnappings that has been a feature of Colombian politics for more than a decade. Many of those kidnapped were released either on payment of ransom or in exchange for FARC prisoners.

In a nation-wide address, Pastrana described the accord as "an important step". With international monitors in place, the "whole world will be a witness to whether FARC and the government are keeping their word", he said. Pastrana also announced that he was extending the "demilitarised zone" until the second week of April. An important concession made by the FARC was that it no longer insisted on a halt to surveillance by the government of its "safe zone" as a prelude to peace talks. The rebel leaders were satisfied with Pastrana's guarantee of their safety within the zone.

Envoys from 10 countries, including Cuba, were among those who helped facilitate the accord. The United Nations special envoy to Colombia, James LeMoyne, also played an important role in averting an immediate resumption of the civil war, although the accord called only for more talks and not an actual ceasefire. All the same, the involvement of outside parties is an important development for Colombia as it is for the first time that the intensely nationalistic country has accepted third party mediation to resolve its internal conflict. According to LeMoyne, the FARC leadership wanted the 10 countries, the U.N. and the Catholic Church to remain involved in the negotiations, which are aimed at a lasting ceasefire.

Several countries in the region feel that a new upsurge in violence is not good for any of the parties concerned. The FARC has also been getting a bad press for the kidnappings it is alleged to have orchestrated. There have been regular demonstrations against this particular tactics of the Colombian guerillas. The right-wing militias seem to prefer massacres to kidnappings.

The FARC may have softened its stance owing to international pressure. The European Union (E.U.) put pressure on it to join the negotiations, threatening to stop issuing visas to FARC functionaries. The Mexican government had signalled that it would close the FARC office in Mexico City if it did not resume negotiations. The FARC leadership is no doubt aware that influential sections of the military along with their right-wing allies are spoiling for a fight. In the last two years, the strength of the paramilitaries has increased to 10,000. The strength of the FARC guerilla army is said to be around 18,000, but they are battle-hardened.

THE Bush Administration is said to favour a decisive battle against the leftist guerillas. American military advisers and senior Colombian military officers were against Pastrana's offer of a safe haven for the guerillas, arguing that the FARC would misuse the facility to train its forces, stage attacks and hide kidnap victims. Washington has also been claiming that coca cultivation in Colombia has increased since the creation of the safe haven. Washington has provided the Colombian armed forces with modern helicopters and sophisticated surveillance planes in recent months. The Bush Administration has promised Colombia an additional $300 million in aid over and above the $1.3 billion given in 2000 by the Clinton Administration.

The signing of the accord was greeted with joy by the inhabitants of the "demilitarised zone" and its capital, San Vicente del Caguan. FARC leaders had provided an efficient and corruption-free administration ever since the area came under their control. If the talks had broken down, the Army and the militias would have swooped down on the city. The right-wing vigilantes under the umbrella of the United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC) would have invariably targeted civilians in the safe zone as being sympathisers of the guerillas. Many people had started leaving San Vicente for more secure surroundings.

Violence claimed more than 3,000 lives in 2001, and 35,000 people are estimated to have died in the last 10 years. Had the talks failed it would have led to more bloodletting. The guerillas would have once again taken the battle into the urban centres and substantially added to the body count. Already Colombia has the world's highest incidence of death owing to violence - 80 per 100,000 people. In the circumstances, the prospect of an all-out civil war would have been alarming. Both the government and the guerillas appear to have realised this.