A vote in Venezuela

The country's Opposition parties succeed in getting a national referendum ordered to decide the future of Hugo Chavez's presidency but have failed to agree on an alternative set-up in case they win.

THE Venezuelan government announced in the second week of June that a national referendum would be held on August 15 to decide the future of the presidency of Hugo Chavez. The Opposition has been agitating on the streets for months demanding the recall of the President. The whole of the past year was marked by clashes between pro- and anti-Chavez protesters on the streets of the capital, Caracas. The Opposition has tried all possible methods, most of them unconstitutional, to get rid of the dynamic Chavez. It resorted to more and more desperate measures after it became clear that Chavez was determined to bring about revolutionary changes in the country.

The most devious attempt to subvert the democratic process in Venezuela was the United States-supported military coup in April 2002. Chavez said recently that he had "expected" to be killed in the first 24 hours of the coup, when he was detained at a secret location. That coup was thwarted by sections of the Venezuelan Army with popular support on the streets.

The new Constitution, drafted at Chavez's initiative and overwhelmingly approved by the people in 1999, has a provision for the recall of a popularly elected President midway through his or her term. Chavez was keen on the provision because in recent Venezuelan history many elected Presidents had become corrupt and venal almost immediately after assuming office. The Venezuelan constitution is the only one in the Western hemisphere that allows for the recall of a popularly elected President. The opponents of Chavez have now tried to exploit this clause.

Before finally opting for the referendum, the oligarchs, who dominated Venezuelan politics before the arrival of Chavez on the political scene, tried to paralyse the oil sector on which the country's economy is dependent. Chavez was determined to use the revenues generated from oil exports to improve the social sector. Despite Venezuela being a top oil exporter, most Venezuelans continue to live in poverty. The wealthy had managed to corner the resources of the state for their own benefit. "The political and economic divisions of my country did not start with my election in 1998. My country has been socially and economically divided throughout its history. Venezuela is one of the largest oil-exporting countries in the world - the fourth largest supplier to the U.S. - yet the majority of the Venezuelans remained mired in poverty," Chavez wrote recently in a signed article.

Chavez stressed that the real reason why the elite wanted to get rid of him was his efforts to dedicate a substantial portion of the oil wealth to improving the lives of the poor. He pointed out that in the past six years the government had doubled its spending on health care and tripled the education budget. After Chavez took over, the infant mortality rate has fallen while life expectancy and the literacy rate have shot up; 1.5 million Venezuelans have been taught to read and write. Two million people are now studying beyond the sixth grade. 300,000 students from the poorer sections of society have been given scholarships. Land, tractors and credit are given to campesinos (peasants). Medical care has now been brought to the doorsteps of the poor. People's markets have been constructed where goods are sold at prices 10 times cheaper than those prevalent in the supermarkets of Caracas.

Cuban doctors have lent a helping hand in the medical field as they have done in other countries, such as Haiti and South Africa, on the basis of international solidarity. They live and work among poor Venezuelans in the interior areas. The Opposition has chosen to interpret the presence of Cuban medical personnel as yet another illustration of an alliance between Cuba's President Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez. For that matter, Chavez has never hidden his admiration for Castro. Cuba is the first country he visited after becoming President. Chavez has also been critical of the policies adopted by the George W. Bush administration after the events of September 11, 2002.

The steep rise in oil prices in the international market in recent months helped the beleaguered Venezuelan government to spend more on the health and education sectors. Chavez's reforms, inspired by his pan-American "Bolivarian" ideology, have been viewed with deep suspicion not only by his domestic opponents but also by the Bush administration. They feel that Chavez has committed the cardinal sin of trying to establish a new social order in the country by getting rid of the old order which had given American capital total access to all of Venezuela's resources.

To drum up two million signatures that are necessary for a "recall" referendum, the Opposition initially resorted to dubious measures. It used the mass media to spread the canard that Chavez was a dictator. Unsubstantiated stories about Chavez aiding and supplying arms to Colombian rebels were bandied about.

The country's television and newspapers are owned by the elite. Their credibility has taken a beating ever since they supported the abortive military putsch against Chavez. The Opposition, aided and abetted by Washington, had forged many of the signatures required for the recall. Venezuela's National Electoral Council, which Chavez had described as being "as independent as the Federal Election Commission of the United States", concluded that more than 375,000 recall petitions were forged and found another 800,000 faulty.

However, the Opposition continued to insist that Chavez was avoiding a "recall" vote on various pretexts. Chavez then asked the Organisation of American States (OAS) and the Carter Centre to observe the signature verification process. Chavez had said in the last week of May that he would "relish the opportunity to once again win the people's mandate".

On June 9, Francisco Carrasquero, President of the Electoral Council, announced that the Opposition had finally gathered more than 2.54 million signatures. It crossed a constitutional hurdle, as more than 20 per cent of the electorate had signed the "recall" petition.

The Opposition, however, is still not fully satisfied. It is now insisting that the referendum be held on August 8 instead of August 15 as announced by the Electoral Council. If the referendum were to be held on August 8 and the Opposition were to succeed in removing Chavez, then according to the Constitution fresh presidential election would have to be held. But if the vote takes place on a day close to August 19, there is a hitch. On that day, Chavez completes four years of his term and after this date the Vice-President of the republic will take over in case the President has to demit office. The Electoral Council has stated that the change in the dates was necessitated by the need to install new electronic touch-screen voting machines. The machines, manufactured in the U.S., would eliminate fraud and make the voting process more transparent.

Chavez has been dismissive of the Opposition's claims that the days of the Bolivarian revolution are numbered. To recall Chavez, the Opposition has to win more than the 3.7 million votes that the President received in the 2000 elections. Chavez has said that he would use the referendum as an opportunity to isolate further and expose the Opposition, which sponsored the short-lived coup of 2002 and the economically debilitating general strike of 2003. He has emphasised that the coming battle would be a decisive one. Washington will not remain an idle spectator as the political future of the world's fifth largest oil producer is being decided. The U.S. is the biggest purchaser of Venezuelan crude oil. The referendum will also be the last opportunity for the oligarchs to continue clinging on to their wealth and privileges.

Chavez has brought back hope to the lives of the majority of the 24 million people of this diverse country. From available indications, there is little doubt that the machinations of the Opposition and its sponsors in Washington will be thwarted. Chavez has pledged to abide by the result of the referendum. The Opposition, on the other hand, has only a single-point programme - that of ousting Chavez. It has no clear ideological platform and could not even agree on a common candidate to replace Chavez in the unlikely event of his removal.