A historic union

Ten more states join the European Union, but underlying the momentous event are worries about a threat to its cohesion given the constituents' varying perceptions of political and economic issues.

THE entry of 10 new members into the European Union (E.U.) on May 1 has been described as a momentous event. With the latest expansion, E.U. membership has gone up to 25. The new members are the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, the Republic of Cyprus and Malta. The inclusion of former communist states in the E.U. has formalised their political and economic partnership with the West. The E.U.'s size has now increased by almost a quarter, and its borders extend to Russia. Some of its parts are now closer to Damascus than to Brussels.

Today the E.U. is the world's single largest trading bloc. This is quite an achievement considering the fact that the concept of European integration came up in 1951 with the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community consisting of Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. The next expansion was in 1973 when Britain, Ireland and Denmark joined the community. Greece, Spain and Portugal followed in the 1980s. In 1995, Sweden, Austria and Finland joined what came to be called the E.U.

Big celebrations in the capitals of all E.U. member-states marked the historic expansion. In a speech, Prime Minster of Ireland Bertie Ahern reminded fellow Europeans that they must "never forget that from war we have created peace. From hatred we have created respect. From division we have created union". The new members have the option of joining Europe's borderless "Schengen" zone by 2006. Some of the new members such as Hungary, the Czech Republic, Cyprus and Poland have imposed temporary restrictions on the right of E.U. citizens from the rich member-states to acquire property on their territory.

The general belief in the new member-states is that May 1 has opened the door to future prosperity. However, there is a perceptible wariness among the residents of the prosperous parts of Europe. Fear is rife of an influx of East Europeans looking for work. Warnings about waves of Romas (gypsies) descending on Western Europe are a common in sections of the media. After the latest expansion, the E.U. will be a little less prosperous, at least in the short run. The per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of the new member-states is only about 40 per cent of the existing E.U. levels. Germany and Italy, which make substantial contributions to the E.U. budget, fear that they would now have to contribute more. Other original members such as Portugal and Spain worry that the bulk of the E.U. investments will be diverted to the new member-states in Eastern Europe. Concerns are being raised about the number of nationalities and languages in the expanded E.U., which would make the task of meaningful integration more difficult. There are more than 20 official languages spoken within the E.U. today.

Equally relevant is the possibility of the E.U. becoming politically less cohesive. As things stand, there are perceptible differences among the major E.U. nations. While France and Germany opposed the United States' military intervention in Iraq, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom supported it. The majority of the new members from East Europe were also enthusiastic supporters of the invasion of Iraq. In fact, most of them sent troops to Iraq to underline their solidarity with the George W. Bush administration. Their support and eventual participation in the Iraq war led U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to claim that "new Europe" (meaning the East European countries) was with Washington. Now that the E.U. has expanded, the pro-Washington tilt in the community could only become stronger, given the influence the Bush administration wields in the capitals of many of the new member-states.

DESPITE the end of the Cold War and the emergence of Europe as an economic powerhouse, the E.U. still looks up to the U.S. as the ultimate guarantor of its security. The E.U. allowed the U.S. to emerge as the ultimate arbiter in the Balkans despite the fact that the war there was initiated by some prominent West European powers. The international community hoped that the E.U. would play a responsible role commensurate to its size and economic clout on the world stage. Several developing countries, especially those whose economies were being undermined by the U.S., viewed the introduction of the euro as a positive step in this direction. Many hoped that the E.U. would play a key role in checking the hegemonic behaviour of the U.S. in the international arena.

In recent years, there have been some coordinated moves by Germany, France and Belgium to steer a more independent course in issues relating to foreign policy. Their governments have also developed a working relationship with Moscow. However, on important issues such as Iraq, they failed to make the E.U. adopt a clear and defining position. The E.U. has allowed itself to be virtually reduced to the role of a spectator despite being part of the West Asia Quartet that worked out the "road map" to achieve a peaceful settlement of the Palestinian question, as the Bush administration in tandem with the Israeli government led by Ariel Sharon continues trampling on the rights of Palestinians. Other members of the Quartet are Russia, the U.S., and the United Nations. The group has the required legitimacy and an international mandate to find a just and lasting solution to the Palestinian issue. Recently, despite the European Parliament voting to condemn the incarceration of detenus in Guantanamo in Cuba, the E.U. refused to support a Cuban resolution at the UN Human Rights meet in Geneva that condemned the illegal and inhumane detention of foreign prisoners in the U.S.-controlled base. .

The Athens Declaration of 2003, which signalled the expansion of the E.U., explicitly stated that new and old members "are determined to work at all levels to tackle global terrorism and stem weapons of mass destruction". The Declaration also pledged "its support to the United Nations and its efforts to assure international legitimacy and global responsibility". The international community, especially the developing world, hopes that the E.U. will be able to assert its identity and stand up to the U.S. "hyper power". The widespread expectation is that the leading powers in the E.U. will play the role of catalysts for the political resurgence of the continent. Otherwise, as an editorial in the French daily Le Monde noted, the 25-member community will keep moving "forward like a duck without a head".

The E.U. leadership has openly articulated the need for the E.U. having its own military capability, the first step to which is the drafting of a new European Security and Defence Policy. A decision has been taken to raise a corps level military force of around 60,000 personnel. Washington is not happy with the prospects of the E.U. having an independent fighting force and would prefer the latter to operate through the proposed North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Rapid Response Force to be set up by October. This force would reach a strength of 20,000 by 2005 and will be deployable at five days' notice. The Europeans are sceptical about the role of NATO, which is dominated by the U.S. Recent events have shown that any attempt by the Europeans to influence NATO decision-making have not been appreciated in Washington. The recent expansion of NATO by including a host of East European nations has further strengthened Washington's hands in the organisation.

Many challenges lie ahead for the E.U. One of the immediate ones relates to the pending admission of Turkey. Turkey has been waiting in line for a long time. Washington has been putting pressure on the E.U. leadership to expedite the process of Turkey's admission. However, many of the key E.U. players continue to be wary about the prospects of an Islamic country becoming an E.U. member. They are afraid of the demographic consequence of such a move. Already there are an estimated three million Turks working in Europe and Turkey's membership could alter the balance of power in the E.U. Turkey's population is projected to outstrip that of Germany, the most populous country in the E.U., in the near future. Some estimates forecast that by 2010 Muslims will account for 10 per cent of the population within the E.U. in its present form. The other fear, which is rarely openly articulated by the E.U. leadership, is that the Christian character of Europe will be threatened if Turkey too joins.