A mandate for moderates

The victory of the multi-racial front led by Abdullah Ahmad Badawi by a huge majority signifies a positive shift in Malaysian politics in favour of the moderates.

in Singapore

ABDULLAH AHMAD BADAWI, a supposedly `soft' political leader, called snap general elections several months ahead of the due date, in a bid to emerge from the shadow of his celebrated and controversial mentor, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad. The massive mandate which Abdullah succeeded in crafting for the governing Barisan Nasional (B.N.) coalition surpassed all pre-poll predictions of a sweeping victory for this multiracial front in the diverse Malaysian society with an Islamic core. However, the outcome of the March 21 elections is not entirely surprising. It points to the emergence of a qualitatively new fluidity in the politics of Malaysia, a key South-East Asian state.

The B.N. now has 198 members in the enlarged Parliament of 219 seats. A mandate of this magnitude raises the question of whether Abdullah has the political capability to meet the expectations of the people. While his vast and varied experience in politics and public administration should stand him in good stead, the leadership qualities that he brings to the highest office in the country remain untested. The decision to seek a mandate of his own, after having been in power for only a few months following Mahathir's retirement last year, was perhaps influenced by the need to prove the quality of his leadership.

It is certain that Abdullah himself did not anticipate the kind of massive margin that he has secured. On the eve of the polls, his most committed aides had placed the number of "black constituencies", seats that the B.N. might not win, at around 30.

The Abdullah `wave' has to be seen in the context of the fast-fading `magic' of the Mahathir phenomenon, if not the very relevance of his `legacy'. The obliteration of the `Anwar factor' (the 1999 elections saw a surge in popular support for former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim) in the elections, boosted Abdullah's political stock further, while the rout of the fundamentalist Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) in the parliamentary arena was the icing on the cake.

Mahathir's governing ideology, which considerably galvanised the majority Malay community, should not be confused with his abrasive political style, a style that had on several occasions won him international recognition and on others led to his alienation from the West. His rift with the West widened on issues such as the catalytic effect of Western investments in developing countries and the destabilising impact of the subsequent flight of such capital. In his later years in office, Mahathir was both wooed and detested by the West for his firm stand against terrorism and firmer stance against the Western theory of the Islamic `roots' of international extremism.

Above all, Mahathir alienated a sizable section of the Malay community itself by the manner in which he dismissed Anwar Ibrahim, who rose to be his political challenger, from the post of Deputy Prime Minister in 1998. The arrest of Anwar on charges of corruption and sexual misdemeanour and his subsequent judicial trials and imprisonment saw a deep erosion in the Mahathir `magic' in the parliamentary polls of 1999. However, at the time of the recent elections Mahathir had receded into political oblivion and consequently Abdullah managed to stave off any negative impact resulting from his links with his one-time mentor. Significantly, it was Anwar's exit from government that led to the induction of Abdullah as Deputy Prime Minister in the late 1990s and eventually as Mahathir's successor to the post of Prime Minister last year.

The conscious move by Mahathir to let his successor try and carve a niche for himself and the fading impact of the "Anwar factor" proved crucial in the 2004 general elections. During the 1999 elections, the perception that Anwar had been treated in an `unfair' manner led to the rise of his wife, Wan Azizah, as leader of the newly formed Keadilan party and also to the PAS' electoral success. The PAS had struck a tactical deal with the imprisoned leader's supporters, who either snapped their links with or remained as estranged members of the B.N., especially its main constituent, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO).

In the 2004 elections, in contrast, Azizah barely managed to win, and the PAS' "vote bank" shrank dramatically. The PAS narrowly retained power in the Kelantan province but lost control of the Terengganu provincial legislature. The PAS had won both in 1999. The parliamentary drubbing that the fundamentalist party, which makes no secret of its ultimate national agenda to establish an Islamic state, received, is significant. Together, ethnic Chinese, Malaysian-Indians and other non-Malays match the total population of Malays. The Chinese and ethnic Indian communities are almost entirely non-Muslim.

Why did the PAS fare so poorly in 2004? The fading memories of the Anwar episode and the political exit of a strong-willed Mahathir only partly explain the outcome. About the politics of Islam in South-East Asia, `insiders' have generally concluded that "Islamists have little to contribute to the struggle to fashion appropriate development models for the Muslim world in the 21st century".

The emerging politics of Islam in Malaysia involves keeping the country on the globalisation track without losing sight of the cultural ethos of the country's slender Muslim majority. During the later years of Mahathir's rule, the PAS was able not only to capitalise on the `sympathy' for Anwar but also to champion the `cause' of political Islam, which was projected to be under `threat' from `globalisation'. For all his attempts to play a modern-day Socrates on the theme of Western predominance, Mahathir did not shy away from the positive aspects of globalisation. This was seen by the PAS as an opportunity to promote its Islamist agenda in a general milieu of discontent among Malay Muslims.

For the first time since 1999, the PAS found itself up against Abdullah, who brought into play his own strong political and social background as a potential custodian of the legitimate interests of Muslims. In this respect, Abdullah differs from Mahathir, who was generally seen as a leader on the fringes of the politics of Islam despite his advocacy of a moderate and modern Muslim identity.

Now, the centre of gravity of Abdullah's politics, too, is widely recognised to be moderate Islam, which can be consistent with Malaysia's social diversity of religions, including Hinduism, an ancient influence on South-East Asia. However, what distinguishes him is his political identity as an insider vis-a-vis the Malay community. While these factors explain his electoral triumph, the question is whether the re-coalescence of the divided Malay voting bloc will have any impact on the Mahathir doctrine and on the unity of the B.N. across the racial subdivisions.

`Mahathirism', as expounded by K.S. Nathan and other informed observers of Malaysian politics, involves the kind of "multiracial coexistence" that would not threaten the political predominance of the Malays, "a moderate and progressive Islam" in contrast to the kind advocated by the PAS, and "economic growth" based on partnerships among Malaysia's various groups and its key trading allies.

For Abdullah, who is schooled in this kind of political ideology, which helped re-invent Malaysia during the Mahathir era, the main ground reality has more to do with the potential dynamics within the B.N. rather than the principles of the agenda itself. The long-time political leader of the Malaysian-Indian community, Samy Vellu, and the leader of the ethnic Chinese within the B.N. fold, Ong Ka Ting, have retained their old portfolios in Abdullah's post-poll Cabinet. Also retaining his rank as Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister is Najib Tun Razak, an UMNO stalwart and the son of a former Prime Minister. Given the UMNO's pre-eminent position in post-poll B.N., one of Abdullah's tasks is to ensure that his allies in the parties representing the minorities do not feel marginalised or alienated.

As for major new issues, the anti-corruption theme, which Abdullah made a political mascot of, figured prominently in the campaign. Not properly articulated were the anti-terror issues and the suspicions of a possible Malaysian corporate link in the nuclear proliferation chain that was revealed to have been masterminded by the Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan and his associates. However, as Abdullah, now a regional leader to reckon with, reaches out to the international community, these and other issues will be in the reckoning.