A vote for peace

Chechens enthusiastically vote for a new Constitution and an end to the bloody conflict with Russia.

ON March 23, the war-weary people of Chechnya gave an overwhelming mandate for peace by voting en-masse in favour of a Kremlin-sponsored referendum that sought to bring peace to the region and end years of bloody conflict. Belying all expectations, over 80 per cent of the 540,000-strong electorate voted in the ballot. The Chechen Election Commission declared that 95.5 per cent of the votes cast were in favour of the referendum and the new Constitution. Only 4.1 per cent of the voters supported radical Chechen elements. The voters also approved two other laws, on electing a President and a Parliament for Chechnya.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the results had resolved the "last serious problem facing the territorial integrity of Russia". He added: "The results of this referendum are positive. They were expected to be positive, but the figures have even surpassed our most optimistic expectations. This means that the people of Chechnya have made their choice for peace and development together with Russia." The Kremlin's new policy on Chechnya envisages a comprehensive road-map to peace. Elections for a new regional government will be held soon and a federal treaty will be signed to delineate clearly the republic's division of powers with Moscow. Although the new Constitution promises to give Chechnya "wide autonomy", it is not quite clear whether it will become a reality. Further, the first clause of the Constitution states that "the territory of the Chechen Republic is indivisible and is an integral part of the territory of the Russian Federation". Despite the fact that Chechnya is being brought firmly under a Kremlin-backed Constitution, this development does give the war-ravaged state an opportunity to return to normalcy.

The task of bringing back normalcy to Chechnya will prove to be a tremendous challenge for Russia and the Chechen people. Chechnya's newly appointed Prime Minister Anatoli Popov said: "The referendum can be considered as having taken place, that is, as of today, the republic is functioning under the approved Constitution. Now, in front of us all - the government, the administration, the people - stands a great amount of work to be done on the future creation of stability that will provide the basis for normal life." The presidential and parliamentary elections may be held as early as December this year, and only after this will the massive task of reconstruction begin, which would be the real test of the Kremlin-initiated peace plan.

ANALYSTS point out that the massive support for the referendum owed a lot to the growing war-weariness among the population. Long years of war and lawlessness have taken their toll, and there is a growing yearning for stability and normal life. Despite the fact that the majority of people want peace, radical elements will not be silenced fast. Sporadic incidents of militant violence are expected to occur, with the rebels continuing with their destabilising activities in a bid to prove that they have not been sidelined. However, analysts insist that the real worth of the referendum lies in the fact that it gives Chechnya a unique opportunity for peace. The return of civil governance to Chechnya could ultimately help evolve a new socio-political culture and an elite class, which in the long run could facilitate the return of normalcy. Robert Bruce Ware, an expert on Caucasian affairs and an Associate Professor at the South Illinois University of Edwardsville, observed recently: "Over the next five to 10 years, a new Chechen social order and new elites will slowly form around economic shifts that will develop following the entrenchment of the new administration and the consequent expansion of federal subsidies for the republic." Progressively, this new order will push Chechen radicals to the side and promote pragmatic and moderate elements. The consolidation of this new order may be the best hope for long-term stability in the republic." Perhaps, in the development of this new socio-political order lies Chechnya's best bet for peace. Ware, added that the natural process of subsequent budgetary transfers from Moscow and humanitarian aid, which follows established patterns of top-down flow of economic resources, would coalesce around the new administration and gradually consolidate its authority. This would automatically result in the marginalisation of radicals and promote pragmatists and moderates. Currently, new elite groups are emerging both in the region and among the Chechen diaspora in Moscow. Some of these groups are more pragmatic, more focussed upon preconditions for legitimate economic development, and more suspicious of radicalism than their predecessors. Ware pointed out that the consolidation of this new order may hold the best hope for ensuring long-term stability in Chechnya.

The overwhelming mandate for peace makes it clear that the current mood in the state favours pragmatism and peace. Ordinary Chechens were the sufferers, caught between a hard-line policy of Moscow and the virulent militancy in the state. The choice before Chechens was rather slim between continued war and a hand-shake with Moscow and the promise of self-governance. It is not surprising that the people favoured the latter. Further, the radical experiment failed in Chechnya, with the disastrous regime of former President Aslan Maskhadov. Chaos followed Maskhadov's regime, under which the Constitution was changed twice in less than three years and a moderate secular state was converted into a radical one based on Islam. Lawlessness prevailed even as the state grew increasingly radical, and Maskhadov failed to control his warring war-lords. Things turned worse in the summer of 1999, when a prominent war-lord raided the neighbouring Russian province of Dagestan, plunging the state into a war with Russia.

For the Chechens the referendum marked a new start, despite the fact that a large number of people may have little faith in Russia. The referendum held out the opportunity for state-building in Chechnya, where institutions of law and governance have deteriorated over the past decade as the socio-political environment got reduced to one of heightened strife among Chechen clans and conflict with Russia. As Chechnya heads to elect its own government, the monumental task of building a workable administrative infrastructure will also be addressed. The Kremlin did take serious steps to conciliate Chechen public opinion in the run-up to the referendum Putin instructed the military to dismantle checkpoints; Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov pledged to compensate Chechen families for property lost in bombing raids; Chief of the General Staff Anatoly Kvashnin announced a new stage of troop withdrawals; and top electoral official Anatoly Veshnyakov visited the Chechen capital Grozny to inspect preparations for the referendum. Perhaps the most generous step was the announcement by Vladislav Surkov, a senior Kremlin deputy, at a meeting in Grozny with the Chechen leadership and the heads of Chechnya's districts, that Vladimir Putin was ready to grant Chechnya extensive autonomy within Russia. Surkov said: "In future, an agreement to be concluded between the federal centre and the Chechen Republic may stipulate extremely flexible schemes for the existence of the Chechen Republic as part of the Russian Federation. Acceptable forms can be found even for those who haven't until now wanted to see themselves as part of Russia." These words were perceived by people as an invitation to the rebels to take part in the referendum. Further, in the run-up to the referendum, Putin gave several hints of an impending amnesty to the rebels. He has already called on officials in Chechnya to start drafting a law on amnesty and lay the groundwork for substantial autonomy. The exact terms of the amnesty are not yet clear but they are expected to be better then the amnesty Russia already offers to rebels who lay down their weapons. Putin called for these moves at a crucial meeting with the head of the Chechen administration Akhmad Kadyrov on March 27. The amnesty is widely expected and desired by the public in Chechnya. Although critics of the referendum believe that it will not work and can plunge the nation afresh into a civil war, Putin seems to have acted fast by directing his administration to work on a comprehensive amnesty and peace plan. A total of 3,000 rebels surrendered when the first decree on amnesty for Chechen rebels was announced by Putin in 1999. It is clear that the next few months will prove critical for Chechnya and for Putin's peace package.