A victory and a warning

Roh Moo-Hyun of the ruling Millennium Democratic Party, who has consistently criticised the U.S. policy towards North Korea, wins the South Korean presidential election.

THE Presidential election held in South Korea on December 19, 2002, was one of the most closely contested in the country's history. The winner was Roh Moo-Hyun of the ruling centre-left Millennium Democratic Party. He defeated Lee Hoi-Chang, the candidate of the conservative Grand National Party, despite the slight edge many people thought the opposition candidate had following the last-minute withdrawal of support to Roh by his key alliance partner, Chung Mong Joong. Chung, a wealthy industrialist who belongs to the family that controls the Hyundai business conglomerate, had withdrawn his candidacy in favour of Roh in the last week of November after opinion polls showed that the latter was better placed to stave off the challenge by the conservative forces. Chung had gained a lot of popularity as a result of his successful supervision of the World Cup in football in South Korea.

But a speech by Roh during the closing days of the campaign, in which he said that "if the United States and North Korea start a war, we will stop it", angered Chung. It was interpreted as a warning to Washington. While withdrawing support, Chung said that he considered the U.S. an ally "which had no intentions of fighting North Korea". Roh, perhaps taking a lesson from the successful election campaign of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of Germany, pursued the electoral strategy of tapping the mounting anti-U.S. sentiment among South Korean voters.

On the other hand, the position of Lee on emotive issues such as inter-Korean relations and bilateral relations with the U.S., was a throwback to the Cold War days. He said that his first priority if elected would be to isolate North Korea diplomatically and economically, echoing the Bush administration's position. Lee said: "The sunshine policy has failed. For the past five years we have been catering to North Korea but what did we get in return? What we got was nothing but North Korea's nuclear ambition," Lee said at an election rally.

Until the end of November, the 65-year-old Lee enjoyed a comfortable lead in the opinion polls. In the last couple of years, a series of financial scandals had buffeted the administration of Kim Dae Jung. Two of his sons were jailed for accepting millions of dollars in bribes from businessmen. Until late November it seemed that the Grand National Party was all set to recapture power, riding an anti-incumbency wave.

However, in the last couple of weeks, domestic issues were overshadowed by developments in the region. The acknowledgement by North Korea that it had re-started its nuclear programme once again raised tensions in the peninsula to dangerous levels. Many people in South Korea are of the opinion that Washington contributed substantially to the situation

The outgoing President, Kim Dae Jung, ushered in the "sunshine policy" towards the North at the beginning of his term five years ago. It was beginning to pay diplomatic dividends. But George Bush in his "State of the Nation" message earlier in the year named North Korea as part of the so-called "axis of evil", in the process undermining Seoul's efforts to engage Pyongyang.

The new President-elect has pledged that he would continue with "the sunshine policy" despite Washington's obvious unhappiness. He seems to be of the opinion that the policy of isolation of North Korea being propagated by the U.S. could lead to war or to the chaotic disintegration of the country, which could have disastrous consequences for the South. "Dialogue and engagement is the best way to make North Korea abandon its weapons of mass destruction. If you go in the opposite direction and avoid dialogue, there is the risk of creating a very dangerous situation,", Roh has said.

Observers feel that if the U.S. has its way in Iraq, the next target is likely to be North Korea. This issue, along with Korean-U.S. relations, had taken the centre stage during the campaign. South Korea witnessed its largest anti-U.S. demonstration in the past 25 years calling for the total withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Korean peninsula. Relations with the U.S. have been at their lowest ebb in the last 50 years. Roh believes that Seoul should be allowed to run its own foreign policy and not be dictated to by Washington on its policy towards Pyongyang. He wants the countries of the region to come closer. South Korea has become the biggest exporter to China, replacing the U.S.

Roh may have plans to go in for closer strategic relations with China, a prospect that is clearly not relished by Washington. In the early 1990s, Roh had called for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Korean peninsula. It was also for the first time that the Korean electorate was offered a real choice. In earlier elections, opposing candidates had very little difference with regard to foreign policy or ideology. Criticism of U.S. policy in the region was almost unheard of. Roh, on the other hand, had been a critic of the continued U.S. military presence in South Korea. There are 37,000 U.S. troops permanently based in the South.

That the Americans have outlived their acceptability in the Korean peninsula is clear from the various anti-U.S. incidents in South Korea, including sit-in agitations at American bases and an attack on an American soldier. Leading Korean politicians and intellectuals demand a reappraisal of the close political and defence relations with the U.S. This was something unthinkable until a few years ago. Public opinion was inflamed by the recent death of two Korean schoolgirls, who were run over by a U.S. military truck. The lenient treatment meted out to the soldiers involved in the accident by U.S. military courts has not helped matters either. Under existing agreements, U.S. soldiers cannot come under Korean jurisdiction. On the campaign trail, Roh said that if elected he would press for a radical revision of the security ties with the U.S.

Roh, whose origins were humble, is a self-made man. Compared to Lee, who was a sitting High Court Judge, Roh is a self-taught man who has specialised in human rights. His down-to-earth image appealed especially to voters below the age of 30. A generational divide was evident in the electoral outcome. Roh, who won the elections by a few percentage points, was the choice of the younger generation while those over 50 voted for the conservative candidate. The older generation still feels indebted to the U.S. for the political, economic and military favours in the past, real and imagined. Roh won 48.9 per cent of the vote compared to Lee's 46.6 per cent.

Soon after the result was declared, Roh said that there would not be any serious rethink about the presence of U.S. military bases in the country at this juncture, and added that he valued the country's strategic relations with the U.S. However, indications are that Roh would not be a mute spectator if the U.S. prepares to wage a war against the North. He had stated on several occasions during the election campaign that he wanted a more balanced relationship with the U.S. and that South Koreans would no longer blindly support U.S. policies against North Kroea. Without Seoul's cooperation, it would be extremely difficult for the Bush administration to mount credible military pressure on North.

President George Bush, however, telephoned the President-elect and congratulated him. He still has not congratulated the German Chancellor on his re-election in September. The Bush administration preferred a regime change in Germany and South Kroea, but the people decided otherwise.