Upping the ante

Increased attacks by Kurdish separatists and rising nationalist sentiment force the Turkish government to consider military retaliation.

A Protest IN

TURKEYS patience with the Iraqi government and the guerillas of the Kurdish Workers Party (Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan, or PKK) had been wearing thin, and the last straw was the killing of 12 Turkish soldiers on October 21 in an ambush by the guerillas, who also captured eight soldiers.

Nationalist sentiment, already at fever pitch due to the PKKs frequent attacks from Iraqi territory, went out of control after the killing. Massive street protests followed all over Turkey. The right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (Milliyetci Hareket Partisi, or MHP) has been in the forefront of these demonstrations. The offices of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (Demokratik Toplum Partisi, or DTP) were attacked in many cities.

The Turkish army, known for its uncompromising views on Kurdish issues, also started pressuring the government led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to resort to military action. Since late October, Turkey has massed 100,000 troops on the mountainous border with Iraq in response to the PKKs continuing attacks. Before the United States-led occupation of Iraq, the Turkish military had virtually defanged the PKK. With its leader Abdullah Ocalan imprisoned for life in a Turkish prison, the PKK appeared to be a dispirited lot. After the occupation the semi-autonomous Kurdish government was set up in northern Iraq bordering Turkey. The two Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, sharing power in this government, have been extending support to the PKK in its fight against Turkey.

The Iraqi Kurds, staunch allies of the U.S., are the only group in the country extending full support to the occupation forces. Washington is quietly supporting the push for a separate state by Iraqi Kurds. Top U.S. officials and Congressmen support splitting Iraq into three units on sectarian and ethnic lines. Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Barak predicted three years ago to the U.S. journalist Seymour Hersh that the only thing the U.S. could gain from its foolhardy invasion of Iraq was an independent Kurdish-run northern Iraq. The Kurdish leadership is also close to Israel. Israeli army advisers and intelligence agents are known to be active in northern Iraq.

The Turkish government will have to take these realities into account before it orders its army into northern Iraq to root out PKK guerillas, who are provided secure bases and sophisticated weapons by their fellow Kurds. Turkey has been warning the Iraqi government that its patience is wearing thin and that it is the latters responsibility to ensure that Iraqi territory is not used by the PKK to mount terrorist attacks. Ankara, of course, knows that the major responsibility lies with Washington as Iraq is under the U.S-led military occupation. Turkey says that most of the PKK camps are controlled by Massoud Barzani, a protege of Washington since the 1980s.

Erdogan has accused Barzani of being in a position of aiding and abetting the terrorist organisation in the region. Interestingly, the PKK is branded as a terrorist organisation by the U.S. But it is evident that Washington is tacitly supporting Kurdish separatism. It is no secret that the Americans are arming Kurds to wage war against Iran. The first Kurdish Republic of Mahabad was formed in 1945 on Iranian territory. The Soviet-backed enterprise was overthrown by the Shah of Iran with U.S. help in the same year.

Turkey gave Barzani as well as Iraqi President Jalal Talabani political sanctuary and even Turkish passports when they were fighting against Saddam Hussein.

Under the rule of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), the Kurds in Turkey have made tremendous strides in the past five years. Turkey has around 20 million Kurds, much more than Iraq, Syria or Iran. In the recent election, the AK Party got more Kurdish votes than the DTP. Ankara even seemed resigned to the creation of an autonomous or independent Kurdish Republic on its doorstep. The government was confident that given Turkeys economic and military clout, Iraqi Kurds would have no option but to coexist peacefully. As things stand today, most of the essential supplies for northern Iraq are sourced from Turkey. As much as 80 per cent of Kurdistans foreign investment comes from Turkey. Most of the construction work in the region is being done by Turkish companies.

Turkey also provides by air 70 per cent of the supplies for the U.S. army in Iraq. The Turkish military base of Incerlik is put to heavy use by the U.S. military for its activities in Iraq and Afghanistan and could play a big part if the U.S. decides to bomb Iran.

A Kurdish Workers

Given the realities of the situation, a full-scale invasion of Kurdistan by the Turkish army was never on the cards. Turkey would have lost much politically and economically. An invasion would have also led to a dangerous rupture with the West.

But Turks feel let down by their traditional friends in the European Union and the U.S. They feel that given their long-standing membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the West should have been more helpful. Turkish government officials point out that though the PKK has been branded a terrorist organisation by the E.U. and the U.S., its functionaries move around openly in Western capitals.

According to Article 5 of the NATO Constitution, an attack on a member-country is to be considered an attack on the entire membership and calls for collective defence. Turkey was among the original members of NATO and fought alongside the U.S. in the 1950-53 Korean War. Turkish troops today are deployed in Afghanistan to help U.S. and NATO forces.

Turks feel that the U.S. is adopting double standards in fighting terrorism. Turkish officials and commentators have said that Americans expect international solidarity when Al Qaeda attacks the U.S. but not when terrorism targets Turkey. A recent opinion poll held by the Pew Research Centre found that only 9 per cent of Turks hold a positive view of the U.S. In 2000, 51 per cent of Turks viewed the U.S. favourably. More than 80 per cent of the Turkish people today feel that the U.S. is their biggest enemy. The Turkish press reminded its readers that when a single Israeli was kidnapped by Hizbollah in Lebanon, the U.S. gave Israel the green signal to invade the country.

Senior Turkish officials have talked about making the U.S. pay a price. The U.S. is Turkeys biggest business partner, with $11 billion in trade last year. A senior aide to Erdogan, Egeman Bagis, said that Turkey might have to cut the logistical support to the U.S., which is crucial to its military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. Erdogan met many top Western leaders in recent weeks as talk of an imminent Turkish invasion of Iraq was getting louder.

After Erdogans meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush in the first week of November, all that the U.S. offered was to increase intelligence cooperation with Turkey in its fight against Kurdish separatists.

The Turkish air force has been targeting Kurdish rebel hideouts since late October, and the army has been involved in cross-border raids. Washington does not object to these limited activities but has strongly indicated that it remains opposed to significant military operations on the ground in northern Iraq.

Bush tried to give a helping hand to Erdogan by describing the PKK as the enemy of Turkey, a free Iraq and the USA. The U.S. seems to have persuaded PKK guerillas to cease their activities for the time being and instead focus on destabilising neighbouring Iran. A PKK spokesperson said that most guerillas had crossed over to Iran in anticipation of a Turkish invasion.

Iran and Syria, Turkeys neighbours, have both backed Turkeys plans to confront Kurdish separatists. Iranian Interior Minister Moustapha Pour Mohammadi said in the second week of November in New Delhi that his country fully supported Turkeys actions, including imposition of economic sanctions on northern Iraq. He said that the U.S. had entered Iraq on the pretext of eradicating terrorism. Instead, he said, it was nurturing terrorist cells inside Iraq against neighbouring countries.