Contested verdict

Mexico's presidential election ends in a political stalemate with the left-wing candidate Lopez Obrador rejecting the preliminary result.

MEXICO seems to be heading for a political crisis in the wake of the closely contested July 1 presidential election. Its Federal Electoral Commission announced on July 6 that the official vote count showed that conservative candidate Felipe Calderon of the National Action Party (PAN) was ahead by a wafer thin majority. Lopez Obrador, the left-wing candidate representing the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), was shown trailing by 1,50,000 votes. Election officials admitted that around three million votes were not counted. They claimed that these votes were invalid. The Election Commission will only officially announce the result of the election on September 6.

Lopez Obrador has refused to accept the preliminary result. He said in the first week of July that it was clear that "there was manipulation" and that he and his supporters were "not going to sit back with our arms crossed". He called on them to start nationwide protests. "We are always going to act in a responsible manner but at the same time, we have to defend the citizens' will," he told a local television channel. Obrador is preparing to challenge the election result in court after it is officially declared. The PRD says that there is evidence of "double voting" in the strongholds of Calderon. As things stand now, Mexico seems headed for a political stalemate.

It is not surprising that most observers have noticed an uncanny similarity to the 2000 presidential election in the neighbouring United States, when George W. Bush won the presidency with the help of election officials in the State of Florida and the U.S. Supreme Court. Calderon is the favoured candidate of the Bush administration; plenty of expertise was sent from across the border to help him.

In contrast, Obrador was portrayed in the right-wing media as a radical in the mould of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Obrador went out of his way during the campaign to distance himself from Chavez. He said his political role models were Franklin D. Roosevelt and Mahatma Gandhi. His stated campaign priorities under the slogan "For the Good of Everyone, the Poor First" were to subsidise basic utilities for the poor and tackle unemployment. He also said that if elected he would renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

The Bush administration made it abundantly clear that the last thing it wanted was a leftist government in its backyard. The surge of leftist governments all over Latin America has been viewed with growing alarm. A statement printed in the conservative American newspaper The New York Post a few days before the Mexican election reflected Washington's deep-seated fears: "Chavez is a firm ally of Fidel Castro. Lopez Obrador could be the final piece in their grand plan to bring the United States to its knees before the newly resurgent Latin left."

In the months preceding the election, there was considerable mudslinging and muckraking against Obrador. The present government, headed by Vincente Fox, tried to debar him from contesting but capitulated under the threat of massive street protests. Nevertheless, Fox, who ended the monopoly on power of the long-ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), used the considerable powers of the office of the President to help Calderon at the polls. The President is supposed to maintain a neutral stance on election related issues, but with the campaign in full swing Fox was frequently heard commenting on the "dangers of populism". Obrador's campaign managers said that the President's regular interventions were in violation of electoral laws and alleged that what transpired was an "election by the state". The PAN put out a series of advertisements appearing in the print and electronic media describing an Obrador presidency as "a danger to Mexico". In addition, former Prime Minister of Spain Jose Maria Aznar, who is on a "crusade" against the progressive forces in Latin America, enthusiastically endorsed Calderon's candidacy during a visit in February.

Some Mexicans blame Obrador for the Left's failure to win the presidency decisively. Until May he was the overwhelming favourite, with approval ratings consistently above 50 per cent. Many had viewed his victory as a fait accompli. There was no doubt that the vicious American-style negative campaign against Obrador launched by PAN strategists had an impact. However, Obrador left himself open to criticism. Surprisingly, he absented himself from the first televised debate with Calderon and the other presidential candidates. Similarly, he did not forcefully rebut the canards that were spread about him.

The election has reflected deep fractures in Mexican society. Mexico has some of the highest levels of inequality in income and wealth. While one report suggests that it has more billionaires than France, 40 per cent of its 107 million inhabitants live under the poverty line.

There is also a north-south divide in the country's politics. The northern part of Mexico is a beneficiary of NAFTA and has been able to attract billions of dollars in investments from the U.S. Many American companies, attracted by cheap labour, have shifted their manufacturing facilities to Mexican towns near the border. Mexican sub-contractors for U.S. industry account for half the country's overall exports to the U.S. Ninety per cent of Mexico's exports are routed to the U.S. and 75 per cent of its imports are from the U.S. The agricultural south continues be in the grip of poverty. Cheap American farm products have further complicated matters. Obrador's promises of radically reforming the Mexican economy evoked a positive response from the voters in the south. Calderon got most of his votes from the more industrialised north.

Many Mexicans view the current events with a sense of "dj vu". In 1988, Cuahtemoc Cardenas, another left-wing PRD candidate, was cheated of victory. After he had notched up an almost insurmountable lead during the counting, there was a mysterious "computer breakdown". When the matter was rectified, the computers showed that the PRI candidate, Carlos Salinas, was comfortably ahead of Cardenas. Many Mexican and American officials acknowledge that it was electoral manipulation on a massive scale that prevented Cardenas from being President. Cardenas chose to concede defeat rather than provoke a confrontation with the authorities. PRD supporters seem to be in a less charitable mood this time around.