The Irish Republican Army decides to end its 30-year-old armed struggle and pledges to surrender arms, signifying another milestone in the Northern Ireland peace process.
HASAN SUROOR in LondonIT had been in the offing for several months but, as British Prime Minister Tony Blair noted, there had been so many "false dawns" that nobody familiar with the volatile Northern Ireland politics was prepared to wager a bet until the announcement was actually made on July 28.
Even sceptics acknowledged that it was a truly historic moment when the Irish Republican Army (IRA) released a grainy video of a "volunteer" declaring that the IRA had decided to end its 30-year-old armed and bloody struggle. It was a signal that the "war" was over and, henceforth, the IRA would pursue peaceful political means to achieve its goal of a united Ireland. (Apparently, Northern Ireland is already abuzz with jokes about "pre-war" and "post-war" Belfast.)
The statement, widely noted for a clarity not associated with previous pronouncements by the IRA, committed the organisation to "put its arms beyond use" in a "verifiable" way under the supervision of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning headed by John de Chastelain, a former Canadian Army officer.
Responding to calls for transparency, the IRA said in the statement that independent witnesses from Catholic and Protestant churches would be invited to see the decommissioning. It stressed that the idea was to "enhance public confidence" in its commitment to decommissioning and said it was keen to "conclude this as quickly as possible".
The key passage of what Blair described as a statement of "unparalleled magnitude" was: "The leadership of Oglaigh nah Eireann [IRA] has formally ordered an end to the armed campaign. This will take effect from 4 p.m. this afternoon. All IRA units have been ordered to dump arms. All volunteers have been instructed to assist the development of purely political and democratic programmes through exclusively peaceful means. Volunteers must not engage in any other activities whatsoever."
The reference to "any other activities whatsoever" is particularly significant in the context of allegations that IRA volunteers have been engaged in criminal activities such as smuggling, intimidation, bank robberies, spying on political rivals and physical violence.
Gerry Adams, leader of IRA's political wing Sinn Fein, was pointedly asked whether the IRA's decision to cease its armed campaign also meant that it would not engage in any "criminal" activity. He retorted: "Which part of the statement that asks volunteers `not to engage in any other activities whatsoever' do you not understand?"
For Tony Blair and his Irish counterpart Bertie Ahern, both of whom put in enormous effort in pushing the Northern Ireland peace process forward, the IRA's decision is a personal triumph. They lost no time in hailing it, while acknowledging that it would take time to rebuild the trust damaged by more than three decades of discord.
A visibly pleased, almost breathless, Blair, speaking in Downing Street shortly after the IRA's announcement, said it was a day when after many "false dawns... peace replaces war".
"It is what we have striven for and worked for throughout the eight years since the Good Friday Agreement," he said, adding that he hoped it would mark the beginning of a new "future" in which memories of "futile violence" would be forgotten.
Blair noted that the statement was of a "different order" from anything heard from the IRA in the past and created circumstances for the restoration of the provincial government suspended nearly three years ago following allegations of spying against the IRA.
In a joint statement later, Blair and Ahern called it a "momentous" development and underlined the fact that it amounted to "the end of the IRA as a paramilitary organisation" - something which the British and Irish governments had been "working towards since the cessation of military activity in 1994".
Even hardline Unionists, who insist that the IRA must wind up altogether, have been forced - even if grudgingly - to recognise the significance of the move though Ian Paisley, leader of the hawkish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) - the largest Unionist group in the provincial assembly - said it would "judge" the IRA's words by its actions in the months to come.
Moderate unionists, represented by the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), have been more generous in welcoming the IRA's gesture though they wished it had come sooner. They believe it has come too late for moderate unionism to retain the majority support of the Protestant community, which, in the last assembly elections, went over almost entirely to the DUP. Yet, they are happy that the IRA has finally come on board, removing a major hurdle in reviving the peace process, which has been in a limbo over the issue of IRA decommissioning.
THE IRA's decision represents a seismic shift in its strategy. For, despite several acts of decommissioning, it had, until now, remained opposed to giving up arms completely. This had caused a virtual breakdown of the 1998 Good Friday agreement under which it was obliged to destroy all its weapons through a verifiable process.
After what amounts to a steep climbdown - just short of a surrender - by the IRA, no responsible Unionist leader can afford to be seen to play the spoilsport. Indeed, having got Gerry Adams to deliver his part of the bargain, the British and Irish governments will not allow Unionists of any hue to wreck the deal. In a sense, the ball is now in the Unionists' court. A major issue on which they are likely to come under the same sort of pressure that was brought on the Republicans, is the cessation of loyalist/unionist paramilitary activity, which is believed to have reached alarming levels.
In their joint statement, Blair and Ahern made clear that they expected all paramilitary violence on both sides to cease.
"We... expect all parties to use their influence to bring loyalist paramilitary and criminal activity to an end, including the full decommissioning of weapons," the two leaders said. The statement emphasised that the two governments were "committed" to the full implementation of the Good Friday Agreement and that the responsibility for it lay on all communities and leaders of all political parties.
"We urge all political parties and everyone with a genuine interest in bringing peace and stability to Northern Ireland to join us in our determination to ensure continued and rapid progress," the statement said.
The message that nobody would be allowed to wreck the peace process was reinforced by Peter Hain, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. Even as he called upon the Republicans to translate their words into action he also reminded the Unionists of their "responsibility" to respond "positively" to the "new environment".
As he pointed out, a lot of work remains to be done and much would depend on how quickly the IRA follows up its statement with action on the ground, starting with "verified acts" of decommissioning.
Moreover, London and Dublin will be watching closely how the IRA deals with criminal elements in its ranks, such as those who were responsible for the 26-million bank robbery in Belfast last December. On the political front, there would be pressure on Sinn Fein to start engaging with the new policing set-up - the Police Service of Northern Ireland, which has replaced the discredited Royal Ulster Constabulary. This is important in order to restore public trust and confidence in state institutions, especially among the Catholic community. So far, Republicans have been reluctant to cooperate with Sinn Fein on grounds that it does not address fully their concerns, but they would now be under pressure to fall in line.
On its part, the British government has already started dismantling a contentious army watch-tower in the sensitive Republican-dominated South Armagh area, as part of the proposed process of demilitarisation - a key plank of the Republican campaign, and a commitment made in the Good Friday Agreement. But before London moves further, it would expect matching steps from the IRA and the Sinn Fein to push the peace process forward.
In its statement, the IRA acknowledged that there was "considerable energy and goodwill for the peace process" and emphasised that its decision to give up arms presented an "unprecedented opportunity" to utilise it.
Seldom before has the IRA so publicly and unambiguously acknowledged the support that exists for the peace process. But Northern Ireland watchers are keeping their fingers crossed, insisting that they would believe that peace has arrived only when it really does.
There is still a long road ahead and even if the two sides stick to the proposed time-table, it is expected that the suspended assembly and the power-sharing executive will be restored only by late next year. But, as Peter Hain wrote in The Guardian: "If the promise of this statement is carried through, Northern Ireland will be on the verge of a breakthrough that will give the lie to the idea that divisions are so profound, distrust so ingrained and hatred so embedded that there could never be a settlement. There can be. There must be - and it cannot come too soon."
Brave words, given the unpredictable nature of Northern Ireland politics, but for once Hain's optimism is rather widely shared.
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