Egypts meandering revolution has reached a critical juncture. The onus is now on the Islamists and the secularists to develop a culture of engagement to lay the foundation of lasting stability.
EGYPTS ISLAMISTS ARE CELEBRATING VICTORY IN A referendum over a controversial draft Constitution, which for three weeks had locked the nation of 80 million in street battles between supporters of President Mohamed Morsy and his secularist opponents. A day after the December 15 voting, the Muslim Brotherhoodthe Islamist group that has been Morsys ideological parentannounced that according to its own count, 57 per cent had voted in favour of the draft national charter. If this margin of victory is confirmed, the second round of referendum on December 22 will become largely irrelevant. High population centres, including Cairo and Alexandria, Egypts second largest city, voted in the first round. The largely rural vote that will be counted in the second phase is expected to support the charter, written by a 100-member Constituent Assembly that was dominated by Islamists.
The Egyptian people have spoken their mind, the Freedom and Justice Party, the Muslim Brotherhoods political arm, declared in a statement after the unofficial count. The Egyptian people have expressed their free will in the first stage of the constitutional referendum and have also proved to be highly aware; this is a genuine democratic process, it added. Even if the Brotherhoods claims are exaggerated, and the Islamist supporters barely manage to have their noses ahead in the contest in the first round, the chances are that they will, in the end, cross the finishing line with a credible margin.
The referendum is significant on many counts. Contrary to apprehensions of low polling when street protests were raging across Egypt, the voter turnout was surprisingly high. Across Egypt, voters waited patiently for hours in serpentine queues to reach the ballot box. In part, the high percentage of voting was possible because political formations looking past their deep ideological differences seemed to be working on a consensus that it was better to vote rather than to boycott the referendum.
The secularist opposition, which at first appeared inclined to stay away, decided to participate and reject the constitutional draft, which in its view did not guarantee equal gender and minority rights and fell short of assuring the freedom of expression. There were good reasons for their disenchantment with the charter. Critics point out that the document that was voted upon was hastily drawn and represented a rushed revamp of the old Constitution that served the regime of former President Hosni Mubarak. When the Christian and secular members left the Constituent Assembly in protest, the draft was finalised in an all-night session by the remaining members, most of whom were Islamists. Constitutional experts poring over the draft after it was passed faulted the document for its vagueness, especially regarding the protection of rights.
A working group at the United Nations has also slammed the charter for not being explicit in supporting womens rights. Kamala Chandrakirana, head of the U.N. Human Rights Councils working group on laws and practices that discriminate against women, expressed concern that very few women were involved in the drafting of the Constitution and that womens perspectives were grossly under-represented in the final draft. She urged the Egyptian government to ensure womens full and equal participation in all processes related to the political transition and incorporate their due role in shaping society.
Despite its deepening hostility towards the charter and the Muslim Brotherhood, the liberals and leftists decided to vote and reject the document. Just ahead of the referendum, the National Salvation Front (NSF), the anti-Morsy constellation, shifted its campaign from the streets to the media. On December 14, it ran half-page advertisements in newspapers, which rubbished the document by designating it as a constitution that divides Egypt.
A tweet from Hamdeen Sabbahi, a former presidential candidate and now a leading NSF luminary, reinforced the sense of urgency in the secularist camp to reject the constitutional draft. To every Egyptian, man and woman, listen to the voice of reason and conscience and say No [to the Constitution draft] to save Egypt and support of the nation.... Adoption of divisive draft constitution that violates universal values & freedoms is a sure way to institutionalise instability and turmoil, said Sabbahi on Twitter.
Egypts 10 per cent Coptic Christian community also came out in significant numbers to vote. This was significant, as young Coptic activists were at the front lines of frenzied protests ahead of the vote. A recent history of traumatic attacks on churches by Islamist extremists has turned large sections of the community wary, if not fearful, of the Muslim Brotherhood. But steering clear of a ghetto mentality, the Copts decided to vote, and possibly reject the charter.
The template for a full political engagement in the post-Mubarak Egypt was set by the Coptic Pope Tawadros II. Not only did he cast his ballot and set an example, but he urged all Egyptians to participate in the polling, regardless of their position on the constitutional draft. He pointed out that individuals could ballot according to their convictions but it was necessary for them to vote by stepping out of their homes. Women also seemed to come out strongly to vote, and their robust participation in Cairo was recorded by Egypt Independent, a local newspaper. Local media also reported a high turnout in the Sinai peninsula, the countrys tribal heartland, especially in the city of Al Arish.
The high voter turnout is particularly significant, if not a turning point in the Egyptian revolution. It shows that a troubled, violent and chaotic post-Mubarak transition, where Islamists, secularists, the military and the judiciary have jockeyed for power for nearly two years, has not alienated ordinary citizens. With a culture of electioneering setting in, there is now a good chance that Egyptians will shun violence and turn to the ballot box to bring about change, whenever required, in accordance with the wishes of a cross-sectional majority. Egypts fledgling democracy will be drawn into sharper international focus early next year when fresh parliamentary elections are due on the basis of the new Constitution.
ISLAMIST-SECULARIST DIVIDEWhile the Islamists are demonstrating their political ascendancy in post-Mubarak Egypt, they have to go a long way before they can earn the legitimacy and respect of the entire nation. Their challenge has grown bigger as the Islamist versus secularist divide has hardened over the last few weeks. The draft Constitution has been the source of high-pitched polarisation between the two camps. The secularists have been fuming after President Morsy tried to impose the charter on the rest of the country by arming himself with sweeping powers. A November 22 decree issued by him insulated the Constituent Assembly from judicial intervention.
The constitutional decree meant that no court order, in response to lawsuits, could dissolve the Assembly. By passing the decree, Morsy exposed himself to the charge that he had ambitions to become Egypts new dictator in the image of Mubarak. Soon after the decree was issued, Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei wrote on Twitter: Morsy today usurped all state powers and appointed himself Egypt's new pharaoh. A major blow to the revolution that could have dire consequences.
The fear of a counter-revolution under the watch of Morsythe imagined fledgling dictatorfuelled energetic protests, some of which went seriously out of hand. From Tahrir Square, the icon of the revolution, the area around the presidential palace became the focal point of a fresh wave of protests. The anti-Morsy revolt triggered a spiral of street battles with Islamist groups, which asserted themselves strongly in defence of the President. In the pitched battles fought with stones, Molotov cocktails and firearms, 10 people were killed and hundreds injured. The Muslim Brotherhood claimed that 35 of its offices, including its Cairo headquarters, were vandalised during the three weeks of protests.
With the wounds of the protests still raw, and the hostility between the two rival camps at its peak, Morsy has now the onerous task of marshalling all his leadership skills to bridge the Islamist-secularist divide. Unless he can find some middle ground with the secularists, Egypts polarisation is bound to heighten to ever dangerous levels. Without a compromise, the extremist factions among the Islamists are likely to grow even strongera danger that was starkly exposed during the recent clashes when hard-line Salafi groups joined the melee in support of the mainstream Brotherhood cadres battling their secular rivals. Ultra-conservative imams have urged people attending prayers to vote in favour of the draft. In Alexandria, an appeal in support of Morsy by a radical cleric triggered clashes that injured more than a dozen.
The ultra-conservative Islamist satellite networks have also been at the forefront in blaming Christians for the recent surge of violence. Those attempting to heal the rift between the Islamist and the liberal camps are likely to encounter the draft Constitution, in its present form, as a serious obstacle.
In a country that is almost evenly split between the religious and the secular, as demonstrated by the June presidential election that Morsy won by an uncomfortably narrow margin, the President may now have to reach out to the opposition, devise a mechanism in line with its core concerns and amend the Constitution.
There is yet another compelling reason for an emergency patch-up between the rival camps. While the 18-day Egyptian uprising that removed Mubarak was applauded for its peaceful protestation, violence crept in prominently during the recent spurt of clashes. The resulting lawlessness allowed the military, which had been pushed to the barracks and the margins, to step in from the shadows and once again emerge as a role player in the civil domain. In a statement during the peak of the clashes, the military warned of disastrous consequences should the stand-off between the two camps continue. It recommended dialogue as the best and only way to unify the country. Anything other than that [dialogue] will force us into a dark tunnel with disastrous consequences; something that we wont allow, it warned. Some supporters of the military expressed fears of a military coup by using paradoxical language. The Associated Press quoted Abdullah el-Sinawi, a prominent pro-military commentator, as saying: We dont want a coup, and the military itself doesnt want to return to politics. But if it is forced to interfere to restore security, it will. The reassertion of the military bodes ill for a country that has now a good chance of cementing its democracy, anchored in popular support and governed by civil institutions. Egypts liberal activists have also equally sound reasons to work out a modus vivendi with the Islamists.
By engaging the Muslim Brotherhood, the secularists have a chance of strengthening moderate factions within the group, which can otherwise slide across the Islamist ideological spectrum and bond with extremist Salafi groups with much greater intensity. There is another danger: by avoiding a working relationship with the Islamists, secularists can be drawn into a counter-revolutionary trap. Credible reports have emerged that pro-Mubarak forces, still seeking re-accommodation, managed to infiltrate secularist ranks during the recent protests and were at the front end of the violent activity. Their role could magnify if uncontrolled street clashes continue.
After the referendum, Egypts meandering revolution has reached a critical juncture. The onus is now on the Islamists and the secularists alike to develop a culture of engagement and rational compromisea necessary component of any maturing democracyto lay the foundation of lasting stability in post-Mubarak Egypt.
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