Satellite salvo

A defiant North Korea launches a satellite into orbit, provoking predictable reactions of protest from its neighbours and the West.

THE successful launch of a North Korean satellite on December 12 is being generally interpreted as a message by Pyongyang to the international community that it is determined to chart its own course despite the decades of Western sanctions and military threats. The launch of a three-stage rocket carrying a weather satellite into space coincided with the first death anniversary of the former leader, Kim Jong-il. The year 2012 also marks the 100th anniversary of the birth of the countrys first President, Kim Il-sung. There were huge celebrations in Pyongyang after the authorities announced that the 90-kg satellite, Shining Star 3, had been successfully placed in orbit after years of endeavour.

In the last 14 years, several attempts at launching satellites had failed. In early 2012, a satellite launch failed dramatically and that too in full international media glare. Now, the West has chosen to ignore the success and has instead bitterly criticised the launch. The United States and its allies in the region have characterised the event as yet another illustration of North Koreas blatant disregard for international norms. The West has been claiming that the satellite launch was a barely disguised test for a long-range missile that could one day have the potential of hitting targets in the continental U.S. For many days after the launch, Western governments and media barely mentioned the satellite that was successfully placed in orbit. Initially, they talked of an object that the rocket was carrying.

North Korea, which has nuclear weapons, has proved several years ago that it is capable of launching intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The military first policy of the government in Pyongyang lays great stress on military deterrence. Riki Ellison, an American expert on disarmament, told The New York Times that the satellite launch was a resounding achievement for North Korea. The country has now become the 10th nation in the world to launch a satellite into space. The young North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, said in a statement that the launch further consolidated the countrys status as a space power. The countrys official news agency said that Kim had stressed the need to continue to launch satellites in the near future. In September 2012, a panel of top experts and scientists working for the U.S. National Research Council had concluded that a North Korean space launch posed no danger to Americas security interests.

The U.S. has large military bases in Japan and South Korea, both close military allies and implacable foes of the government in North Korea. Washington, Tokyo and Seoul have all been vociferous in their criticism of the North Korean satellite launch and have demanded additional sanctions on the country. The launch, statements from many capitals said, was a flagrant violation of the United Nations Security Council resolutions. The Security Council had passed a resolution calling on North Korea to stop its missile and nuclear programmes.

New Delhi too joined in the chorus of criticism against North Korea though India also had tested an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) in April 2012. The Obama administration had issued a mild statement at the time urging all nuclear capable states to exercise restraint regarding nuclear and missile capabilities and continue to discourage action that might destabilise the South Asia region. India, along with Israel and Pakistan, are all de facto nuclear powers. These countries, like North Korea, have not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) but they happen to be in the good books of the West. A statement from the Indian External Affairs Ministry described the North Korean launch as an unwarranted action that has adversely impacted peace and stability on the Korean peninsula.

Now the West wants the Security Council to impose additional punitive sanctions on North Korea, but China is most likely to veto any such move. Beijing has indicated that it will be more comfortable with a Presidents statement. The Presidents statement is considered a much weaker form of condemnation in the U.N. as compared to the imposition of sanctions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement that it regrets the North Korean satellite launch.

China had sent two high-ranking officials to Pyongyang this year to urge North Korea not to go ahead with its satellite launch. However, according to reports, it was Chinas behind-the-scenes diplomacy that prevented North Korea from going ahead with a third nuclear test. North Korea is said to have an arsenal of six to 12 nuclear weapons. It already has weaponised plutonium for up to five nuclear warheads. North Korea has also embarked on its own uranium enrichment programme.

Before the North Korean rocket blasted off to space, the U.S. and its allies in the region had put their armies on high alert. The North Korean launch came after the re-election of President Barack Obama and as Japan and South Korea were going to the polls. Right-wing parties in South Korea and Japan had made the North Korean satellite launch and the countrys alleged military belligerence a big electoral issue. The victory of the right-wing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the December 16 elections in Japan has been attributed to a large extent to the tough stance taken by the LDP leader, Shinzo Abe, on North Korea. Abe, who will soon be taking over as Prime Minister, had reacted angrily to the satellite launch. Japan should work together with the international community to adopt a new resolution in the United Nations to strongly condemn North Korea. The rocket launch was outrageous. The international community needs to impose harsh sanctions, he had said on the campaign trail.

Abe has been trying to stoke Japanese nationalism by playing up disputes with the countrys neighbours. He is a regular visitor to the Yasukuni Shrine, where the Japanese go to pay respects to their Second World War heroes. The other East Asian countries consider them war criminals. Nationalist fervour is not confined to the Korean peninsula; it is going viral all over East Asia. Japan is also embroiled in territorial disputes with South Korea and China.

Tensions in the Korean peninsula escalated dangerously after the election of Lee Myung-bak as the South Korean President five years ago. Under him, South Korea junked the sunshine policy that the two previous governments had implemented vis-a-vis North Korea. The policy of detente also involved giving North Korea generous amounts of aid and opening up channels of communication. Pyongyang had tacitly agreed to put its nuclear and missile programmes on hold in exchange for financial aid. The tough line adopted by President Lee boomeranged as North Korea toughened its diplomatic and military stance. In 2010, a military outpost in a South Korean island briefly came under shelling from North Korea. In the same year, a South Korean naval ship was allegedly torpedoed, killing around 46 sailors.

Conciliatory notes

Better sense seems to be prevailing now in the South Korean political establishment. Both the two leading candidates for the presidency say that they want better relations with the North. The right-wing candidate, Park Geun-hye, the daughter of the former South Korean military dictator Park Chung-hee, says that she wants to usher in an era of trustpolitik with the North. The Centre-Left candidate and the leading challenger, Moon Jae-in, has said that he will resume bilateral aid to the North without preconditions, if elected. North Korea has been demanding iron-clad guarantees from the U.S. that it will not be attacked. Pyongyang has been asking for direct talks with Washington to bring about the demilitarisation of the Korean peninsula. Technically, the two countries are still at war though open military hostilities ended in 1953.

The people of North Korea have been going through a very tough time for the last decade and a half owing to a variety of factors. The most important one is the punitive sanctions imposed by the West and the collapse of the Soviet bloc, North Koreas traditional trading partner. An unremitting cycle of drought and floods has complicated the problems for the country. After Kim Jong-un took over the leadership of the country following the death of his father last year, reports coming out of the country have indicated that the economy is showing signs of revival. Attempts at economic reforms patterned on the Chinese and even Singapore models are said to be on the anvil.

The government in Pyongyang had declared that 2012 would be a defining year for the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK). The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has said that despite the continuing drought and floods, North Koreas agricultural production increased by 10 per cent in 2012 though the country still faces a big food shortage. Malnutrition is also a problem. The new leadership seems to be working hard to improve the quality of life of the average citizen despite the adverse circumstances.

At the spectacular rally staged in Pyongyang to commemorate the first death anniversary of Kim Jong-il in the second week of December, Kim Ki-nam, a senior Politburo member, said that the successful launch of the satellite during turbulent times showed the determination of the country to make a strong dash for victory under the refined leadership of dear comrade Kim Jong-un.