One-horse race

Zimbabwe: Robert Mugabe says he is open to a deal with the opposition if the latter recognises the second round of presidential poll.

A NEW chapter in Zimbabwes tumultuous politics has opened after the victory of President Robert Mugabe in the second round of election held in the last week of June. Mugabe won 85 per cent of the votes cast. His challenger, Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), opted out of the race in the final lap.

The turnout was low as the election, for all practical purposes, had become a one-horse race. Tsvangirai, claiming that his party workers and supporters were being physically targeted by armed militias supporting the ruling Zimbabwe African National UnionPatriotic Front (ZANU-PF) Party, dramatically announced his withdrawal from the contest just five days before the scheduled date of polling and took refuge at the Dutch embassy in Harare.

From there Tsvangirai wrote a letter to The Guardian newspaper urging foreign military intervention to solve the countrys long-running political crisis. He later denied issuing such a call but the British newspaper stood by its story and the authenticity of the letter. The Times (London), reported on June 24 that the United Kingdoms Ministry of Defence had in place two contingency plans for military action in Zimbabwe. Tsvangirai had written: We do not want armed conflict, but the people of Zimbabwe need the words of indignation from global leaders to be backed by the moral rectitude of military force.

Tsvangirais political somersaults have not endeared him to the leaders of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (A.U.) though he remains the darling of the West. At the A.U. summit in Sharm al-Sheikh in the first week of July, Mugabe, fresh from his election victory, was received with full honours by his Egyptian hosts and fellow leaders. Only a handful of African leaders spoke out against the conduct of the election. The A.U. as well as key SADC leaders have all along been urging a mediated settlement to the political impasse in Zimbabwe. The A.U. resolution on Zimbabwe at the end of the summit called on Mugabe to initiate a dialogue with the opposition for the creation of a government of national unity.

Mugabe has been saying for some time now that he is open to a deal with the opposition provided it recognises the legitimacy of the presidential poll. Tsvangirai and his faction of the MDC want to relegate Mugabe to a figurehead President. Tsvangirai wants to be appointed Prime Minister with all executive authority vested in his office. This idea has emanated from Western capitals.

Mugabes spokesperson, George Charamba told reporters in Sharm al-Sheik that the Kenyan model was unacceptable to the ZANU-PF. After a blatantly rigged election in Kenya at the end of last year, the ruling party agreed to the creation of the post of Prime Minister. The winner of the election, Raila Odinga, then became the Prime Minister. In the first round of the election in Zimbabwe, the opposition won more votes than the ruling party.

Zimbabwe is among a handful of African countries that scrupulously conduct elections every five years. Mugabe had lost a referendum on constitutional amendments in 2000. Charamba, reacting to statements from Western capitals, told the media that the West could go hang a thousand times. They have no basis, no claim on Zimbabwean politics at all. Among those who spoke out against Mugabe at the A.U. summit were leaders from Kenya, Nigeria and Senegal. Mugabe told Nigerian President Umaru YarAdua that the elections in Zimbabwe were much cleaner than the one held in Nigeria last year.

Tsvangirai was criticised by members of his own party when he chose to leave Zimbabwe in a huff after his claims of an outright victory in the first round were rejected by the election commission. He had initially talked about not participating in the second round but pressure from within his party made him change his mind. Tsvangirai crisscrossed the country and campaigned freely but chose to withdraw just five days before the election. Unlike the first round in March, incidents of violence were a daily occurrence when campaigning for the second round started.

The ZANU-PF and the MDC constantly traded charges of inciting violence. The ZANU-PF had set the countrys war veterans (those who fought in the liberation struggle) loose. The war veterans and their families were the biggest beneficiaries of the land re-distribution programme started by the government in 2000.

Tsvangirais refrain on the campaign trail was that no amount of violence or intimidation would stop the opposition from romping to victory. Senior MDC officials have told the media that Tsvangirais leadership flaws and tactical miscalculations have only prolonged the crisis in their country. In the rough and tumble of African politics, nothing has been achieved by being a cry baby, a senior MDC official told The Independent. His decision to seek the protection of the Dutch embassy has only strengthened the general impression that he is a pawn in the hands of former colonial powers. After spending a few days as the guest of the Dutch Ambassador, better sense prevailed on Tsvangirai and he returned to his home in Harare.

After the unexpected electoral setback that the ZANU-PF received in the first round, it became a do-or-die situation for the party, which was at the forefront of the liberation struggle in southern Africa. Leaders of other liberation movements who are in power in neighbouring countries such as Angola, Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa, were keenly watching the developments unfolding in Zimbabwe. The prospects of a Western-backed trade union leader like Tsvangirai coming to power was viewed with alarm. They fear that the principles that the liberation movements such as the South West Africa Peoples Organisation, the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, the Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) and the African National Congress fought for would be compromised.

They have not forgotten the bloody insurgencies that the West had thrust on them by arming counter-revolutionary groups such as the Mozambican National Resistance and the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola. Mozambique and Angola are still recovering from the ravages of those wars.

Most Africans realise that all talk about democracy emanating from Western capitals is duplicity of the worst sort. The U.S. was the biggest backer of apartheid South Africa and white-ruled southern Rhodesia, as Zimbabwe was known before independence. Today it is the strongest backer of authoritarian regimes on the African continent. Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast and Rwanda are examples.

Then there is the land issue, which is a highly emotive one in the region. The unedifying prospects of the white farmers coming back to reclaim their land in Zimbabwe is viewed with anger by the black majority. Land reforms are yet to be undertaken in a major way in South Africa, where the rich white farmers own the best land.

Mugabe first attracted the wrath of the West when he announced in 2000 that his government would redistribute the land owned by the white farmers, who had blindly supported the white supremacists who were in power until 1980. As much as 70 per cent of the most fertile land in Zimbabwe was owned by white farmers, who constituted only 1 per cent of the population.

At the same time, SADC leaders are trying their best to defuse the crisis. South African President Thabo Mbekis quiet diplomacy is continuing despite brickbats from the West and the MDC. Mbeki told a South African radio that Mugabe was committed to a government of national unity. He also did his bit at the A.U. summit to block the efforts of the West to bring the Zimbabwe issue to the United Nations Security Council. South Africa currently chairs the Security Council.

However, the powerful trade union movement in South Africa, Cosatu, has criticised Mugabe and the ZANU-PF. Jacob Zuma, whose emergence as ANC chief was due mainly to support from Cosatu, has also been critical of the way Mugabe has handled the political crisis. Zuma, who was in Delhi in June, however, made it clear that he was speaking as head of the ANC and not on behalf of the South African government. He said that the ANC as a fraternal party had every right to advice as well as criticise the ZANU-PF.

Zuma is no doubt aware that Mugabe still enjoys iconic status among grassroots supporters of the ANC. There is a growing clamour for land reforms in South Africa too. Zimbabwe had provided sanctuary and support for ANC leaders such as Mbeki during the liberation struggle. An ANC youth leader accompanying Zuma told this correspondent that three living world statesmen he admired the most were Nelson Mandela, Fidel Castro and Robert Mugabe.

The U.S. is still pushing for U.N. sanctions against Zimbabwe. China, a permanent Security Council member, has stated that Zimbabwes problems should be left to its people to solve. The George W. Bush administration is also opposed to a power-sharing deal in Zimbabwe. Mbekis spokesperson said that SADC and A.U. leaders will continue to work with the Zimbabweans and we are convinced that the challenges would be resolved. In the first week of July, Zimbabwean Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu said that the government was ready for dialogue with whoever for the sake of national unity of Zimbabwe.

The ZANU-PF leadership, especially its security apparatus, has not been able to agree on a road map for a post-Mugabe transition. A senior diplomat belonging to the SADC told this correspondent that the 84-year-old Mugabe had expressed a desire to quit politics and lead a retired life six years ago. He wanted to write his memoirs.

According to the diplomat, Zimbabwes powerful security establishment could not agree on a successor. The old man reluctantly stayed on at the helm of affairs. It is not a secret that sections of the ZANU-PF have colluded with the MDC. The MDC was surprised by its performance in the first round of elections when it narrowly missed out getting more than 50 per cent of the votes cast.

The people of Zimbabwe are no doubt unhappy with the conditions they are living in. Inflation, currently running at 100,586 per cent, has made the official currency almost worthless. Zimbabwe is the only African country with a negative growth in gross domestic product. Its economy has shrunk by more than a third since 1999 with the unemployment rate hovering at 80 per cent. The West has put all the blame for the countrys misfortune on Mugabe, conveniently forgetting its role in triggering the decline of Zimbabwes once robust economy.

Since 1998, Zimbabwe has been labouring under Western-inspired sanctions. That year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) implemented undeclared sanctions on the country on the issue of debt repayment. Structural adjustment loans and credits to Zimbabwe were formally suspended in 1999. In 2000, the International Development Association, a multilateral development bank, suspended all forms of lending to Zimbabwe.

The Bush administration further tightened the screws on the country by passing the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act. The Act decreed that Zimbabwe could do business with international financial institutions only after it pulls its troops out of the Democratic Republic of Congo and follows Western diktats on how to run the countrys economy and politics. The Act also approved American funding for Zimbabwean opposition groups. The European Union followed suit by imposing smart sanctions, which included travel bans on senior Zimbabwean officials.

The World Bank and the IMF have since the early part of this decade been actively lobbying with states and institutions against extending financial credit to Zimbabwe. For a nation that has to import all its oil, 40 per cent of its electricity and most of its spare parts, the sanctions had a devastating impact. Companies started closing down at a rapid rate, fuelling unemployment and an economic collapse.