Confident state

Abdullah Guls election as President shows that a new Turkey is ready to assume an important role on the global stage.

in AnkaraAbdullah Gul at

THE election of Abdullah Gul as the new President has opened a new chapter in Turkish politics. Gul, who until recently was the Foreign Minister, won the election despite the undisguised hostility of the Army, which views itself as the sole guardian of the secular state. It opposed the candidature of Gul when his name was first proposed by the ruling Justice and Development (AK) party earlier in the year. The Army headquarters sent out an e-mail at midnight to warn the government of adverse consequences if it persisted with Guls candidature. The Europeanised Turkish elite, concentrated in the big cities, organised rallies before the last elections to protest against his candidature.

The AK leadership figured that the only way out of the impasse was to seek a new mandate from the people. In the elections held in July, the AK party got enough seats in Parliament to guarantee a victory for Gul on its own. The Army leadership, though not exactly reconciled to the new developments, had to bow to the inevitable.

Gul, who was sworn in as President in late August, is today the Commander-in-Chief of the Army. Turkey for the first time has a President who has a working-class background. Though initially an activist of the Islamist Welfare Party, which was briefly in power in the mid-1990s, Gul, along with Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, has eschewed Islamist rhetoric in favour of pragmatic policies. The AK leadership has reiterated time and again that it is steadfast in its commitment to secularism. Gul as Foreign Minister worked tirelessly to expedite Turkeys accession to the European Union. He was recognised as one of the most efficient Foreign Ministers in the region.

At the same time, it is clear that the AK party will adhere to its traditional cultural roots. The President said in one of his speeches that secularism was essential for social peace but added that it provided scope for different lifestyles. The wives of both the Prime Minister and the President insist on wearing the traditional headscarf. Under Turkish law, dating from the time of Kemal Attaturk, the founder of modern Turkey, the wearing of headscarves is not allowed in public institutions. One reason the Army objected to Gul occupying the presidential palace was that his wife insisted on making public appearances wearing a headscarf. At Guls swearing-in ceremony, she was conspicuous by her absence. Army chief General Yasar Buyukanit and his senior colleagues were also absent. The Armys top brass also refused to salute Gul during his official engagements in August and early September. In the second week of September, Buyukanit finally paid a courtesy call on the President and wished him a successful tenure.

There is very little the Army can do to reverse the course of politics at this juncture. Recent opinion polls have shown a 70 per cent approval rating for the AK government. In the election, the AK party got around 49 per cent of the votes cast, defying the incumbency factor. The economy is continuing to do well. Any intervention by the Army would be a fatal blow to Turkeys chances of joining the E.U. The new Cabinet is dominated by pro-E.U. politicians. The E.U., on its part, has been very supportive of Turkish democracy and has praised the way in which the AK party has governed. But the Turkish public is getting disillusioned with the E.U. The majority of people have begun to view the E.U. as a Christian club. A recent poll revealed that a significant section of the populace wants the government to explore other options.

Under AK rule, Turkey continues to have strong relations with the United States and its allies such as Israel. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is known to have a high opinion of the new President. As Foreign Minister, Gul worked overtime to soothe the hurt feelings in the U.S. after Turkey refused permission to American troops to invade Iraq through its territory in 2003. The ruling AK party had reluctantly approved the proposal to allow Turkey to be used as a major launching pad for the U.S. invasion, but Parliament had different ideas. Defying party whips, members vetoed the government proposal. In retrospect, most Turks feel that the move was justified. Turkey today is not being blamed for the mess in Iraq.

Turkey and Israel are strategic partners of long standing. In 1996, the two countries signed a military cooperation deal. Israel has signed lucrative military contracts with Turkey, which include the upgrading of hundreds of U.S.-made M60 tanks and dozens of combat aircraft. Turkey was on the verge of buying a large number of the indestructible Israeli-made Merkava tanks. But live footage of Hizbollah fighters in Lebanon destroying the tanks in the fighting in 2006 made the Turkish government have second thoughts and the contract has now been cancelled. According to a leading Turkish journalist, India will soon replace Turkey as Israels biggest partner in Asia.

Apart from Egypt, Jordan and Mauritania, Turkey is the only Muslim country to have diplomatic relations with the Jewish state. But in the second week of September, some strains in the bilateral relations surfaced after Israeli planes used Turkish territory on their way to bomb targets in Syria. Fuel tanks dropped from returning Israeli jets were found on Turkish territory. Some informed Turkish commentators this correspondent met in Istanbul suspect that the jets could have taken off from a base in Turkey. Since the 1980s, Turkey has leased a base in a sparsely populated part of the country to the Israeli Air Force for training purposes. Israel does not have sufficient air space for its large Air Force to exercise in and has to depend on other countries for this facility. This is one reason why the Israeli Navy is keen to exercise with its Indian counterpart.

Ali Babacan, the newly appointed Foreign Minister of Turkey, told the media that the incident involving Israeli warplanes was unacceptable. Turkey has lodged an official complaint with Israel and asked it for a quick response.

Prime Minister Recep

Those close to the AK government feel that Turkey could use its influence with Israel to help broker a peace deal with the Arabs. Turkeys relations with Syria, its immediate neighbour, have improved dramatically. Kurdish separatism troubles both Ankara and Damascus. Though Turkey and Iran continue to view each other with a degree of suspicion, relations between the two countries have improved in recent years. In the third week of September, U.S. Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns warned Turkey that sanctions could be imposed if the AK government went ahead with energy projects involving Iran.

Soon after his massive election victory, Erdogan sent Energy Minister Hilmi Guler to Iran. The two governments agreed to set up a joint company that would transport 35 cubic metres of Iranian gas to Europe via Turkey. Turkey has also agreed to construct three thermal plants in Iran. The AK party has rebutted allegations that this was part of its covert moves to take Turkey closer to the Islamic world. Turkish government officials said that the move was actually motivated by the desire to bring the country closer to the E.U. as closer links with Iran would make the country a strategic player in the energy sector as a corridor for the transportation of Iranian oil and gas to E.U. countries.

After meeting leading politicians, journalists and thinkers in Istanbul and Ankara, the impression this correspondent got was that a new Turkey, confident about its future, is ready to assume an important role on the global stage. The militarys long shadow over Turkish politics is slowly but surely disappearing. A new civilian Constitution is going to be adopted next year to replace the one drafted by the military after the 1980 coup. It envisages a Turkey where Kurdish will be taught in schools as a second language. The current Constitution only recognises a unitary Turkey. Until recently, expressions of a separate Kurdish identity and the use of the Kurdish language were prohibited. The new Constitution also proposes to lift the immunity long enjoyed by the military. At present, senior military officers can only be judged by military courts.

AK officials have said that issues relating to personal attire should not figure in the Constitution. The AK party, while reaffirming its strong commitment to secularism, also wants to ensure freedom for all religions and cultures in the country.

The new Constitution also proposes to curtail the powers of the President. Under the present Constitution, the President has wide-ranging powers, including the power to dismiss the government. The Cabinet has to be approved by him.

Professor Nukhet Hotar Goksel, vice-president of the AK and head of its social affairs division, said that the party was totally committed to the key principles enshrined in the Constitution relating to democracy, secularism and the rule of law. Goksel said that another priority of the party was to pass legislation that would make education accessible to people from all walks of life. The Prime Minister said that he wanted more women to participate in politics. More than 12 per cent of the AK partys membership consists of women. In Parliament their representation went up from 3 to 15 per cent this time. Goksel, who is also a leading academic figure in Turkey, expressed confidence that the government would last its full term. Our aim is to raise the standard of living of the Turkish people to European Union levels, she said.

Bekir Bozdag, Deputy Leader of the AK party in Parliament, said that the unemployment problem was the biggest challenge Turkey was currently facing. The government is gearing up to face the challenge by opening up the country to new foreign investments and diversifying its trade. Bozdag said that more than 600,000 new jobs had to be created annually to tackle the unemployment problem. He said a major reason for the AK partys good show in the recent polls was the economic policies it had implemented.

He stressed that it was wrong to label the AK as a moderate Islamist party. Remember, we got one out of every two votes cast in the last elections. We got votes from all walks of life, he said. The AK party, he said, rejected nationalism based on religion or region. We are conservative democrats but not on the side of the status quo, said Bozdag. He emphasised that his party did not have any links to or similarities with Islamist parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt or Hamas in Palestine. Our main problem is prejudice, he added. Bozdag said that even if the AK party forged links with moderate Islamists such as the Muslim League in India, it would only compound the existing prejudice against the party.

Harun Tokak, of the Journalist and Writers Federation, describes the current dominant trend in Turkish politics as democratic and in consonance with E.U. values. Tokak said that Erdogan had moved to the moderate centre. According to Tokak, the Armys role in Turkeys politics has had a negative effect. In todays world, it is unthinkable for an army to play such a role, he said. He was of the view that it was a good thing that the Army had now taken a step back. The AK party, according to him, did not want to impose Islam on the state. At the same time, he said that a democratic Islamic state was important in todays world.

Kerim Balci, a widely read columnist who writes for the Zaman newspaper group, one of Turkeys largest media groups, said that the country faced a lot of challenges in its neighbourhood. There seems to be a growing realisation in Turkey that an independent Kurdish republic carved out of northern Iraq could soon emerge. The government and many commentators do not seem to be unduly worried about this prospect. Balci is of the view that even if an independent Kurdistan emerges, it will have to depend to a large extent on Turkey for its survival. He pointed out that a short-lived Kurdish republic was first established in 1945. It was the Shah of Iran, helped by the Americans, who put an end to that experiment. Today, it is Turkish companies that are exploiting much of the oil and gas in the Kurdish areas of northern Iraq. The oil is already with Turkey, he said. He pointed out that Turkey had the largest Kurdish population. It has an estimated 15 million Kurds.

Balci said that Turkey under AK rule was much more sensitive to the Kurdish issue. Twenty-one Kurds opposed to the AK party and 80 belonging to it were elected to Parliament in this years general elections. Kurds today are fairly represented in the Turkish government. Balci said that the Armenian issue would create more problems for Turkey than the Kurdish issue. Turkey has not officially acknowledged the genocide and ethnic cleansing of Armenians that took place in the early 20th century. In recent months, the issue has been widely highlighted in the Western media.