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Dr. Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate, has formally joined active politics, triggering waves of speculation in Bangladesh.

HAROON HABIB in Dhaka

THE 2006 winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, Dr. Muhammad Yunus, formally joined active politics in February. The aim of his new party is to establish a new trend in Bangladeshi politics by doing away with the "legacy of violence".

Earlier he had sent two open letters to the people to gauge their support for his plans. Yunus said: "Enthusiastic response from the people has led me to decide on floating the new political party." Launching the party, he said: "Today I formally announce my party Nagarik Shakti [Citizens' Power].... I can't keep myself away from politics. It's high time I did something."

Bangladesh is now under a state of emergency, a desperate measure undertaken to prevent the holding of the general elections scheduled for January 22. The alliance led by Khaleda Zia's Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) had, in connivance with the former caretaker government led by President Dr. Iajuddin Ahmed, planned it to be a one-sided affair. The emergency also saw the installation of a new caretaker government on January 12 led by the former Governor of the country's Reserve Bank, Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed.

Without the emergency, the Election Commission would have conducted the elections, and the BNP, along with its fundamentalist ally Jamaat-e-Islami, would have come out victorious in the absence of others in the fray. Yunus was out of the country when these events took place. Many people had high hopes that he would speak out against such an unjust and managed electoral game. Unfortunately, he did not.

Since Fakhruddin Ahmed assumed power, a remarkable change has taken place. Backed by the country's military, the interim government has begun a crusade against the crime and corruption that bedevils the nation's politics. The joint forces of the military, the police, the Bangladesh Defence Rifles (the country's border security force) and the elite Rapid Action Battalion have rounded up thousands of alleged criminals and godfathers of crime and corruption. On top of this, the government has arrested a few dozen top-level politicians, from both the BNP and the other major political party, Sheikh Hasina's Awami league. The people's reaction to these drastic steps has largely been positive. New laws are in the offing to disqualify corrupt politicians from taking part in elections while the process of ensuring the quick trial of those arrested is under way. Political activities are banned under the emergency.

The Nobel laureate, who has been the most vociferous critic of politicians, said his politics would be the politics of unity, peace and honesty and would be secular, promote good governance, be free from corruption and nepotism and ensure gender equality and a bright future for youth. The slogan Yunus has chosen for his new party is Bangladesh Egiae Chol, or "Go ahead Bangladesh". He stated that his politics "would in no way be subservient to foreign powers" and pledged to realise the dreams of the country's liberation war. Yunus also declared that his Nagarik Shakti party would contest all 300 constituencies in the next parliamentary elections.

Floating a political party is a constitutional right, and therefore a party like the Nagarik Shakti should have received unqualified ovation. But Bangladesh's current political scene is somewhat complex; therefore, the much talked about political journey got mixed reactions, if not direct opposition.

Apart from the Nobel Prize, Yunus has received many international awards and honorary degrees. He is the blue-eyed boy of the corporate world for his innovations in the field of investment and marketing of finance capital and technology among the poor. But after he joined politics, he is facing criticism.

Yunus has a good network in rural Bangladesh because of his Grameen Bank. He has also become enormously popular after getting the Nobel Prize. But a politician's popularity is a very volatile commodity. Many of Yunus's well-wishers told him that before he entered politics, he should have considered these questions: Can he reach the rural people as a politician? Will the Bangladeshi public be happy to see him as a politician? Will he be able to overcome volatile political practices?

Bangladesh is a young democracy with a highly polarised political system. Its politics is largely influenced by the three `Ms' of money, muscle power and misuse of authority as rightly said by Fakhruddin Ahmed. The use of religion in politics over the last three decades has raised vital questions about the future of true democracy in Bangladesh.

Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have also emerged as influential operators. One of the bones of contention between NGOs and the growing number of Islamist parties has been the increasing visibility of women in the public sphere.

Corruption is endemic in Bangladesh, and the greed of a section of the people seems to be limitless. This ominous trend is primarily the outcome of the military and pseudo-democratic rulers who made the practice of ideology-based politics difficult.

Therefore, a person like Yunus may not find it easy to do well in politics. Grameen Bank is part of village life and because of its work millions of people do not starve anymore, but that may not be enough to get Yunus votes or to get people to join his new party. Perhaps, the people are more interested in seeing Yunus as a political institute rather than as a politician. But a section of the people still predict that he will succeed in politics because he has "never failed in any mission". Many people who respect Yunus for getting the Nobel Peace Prize said that it is not right for him to enter politics as "politics is a difficult and different process".

"Is he being planted in politics by mentors outside the country?" asked some political observers. Many teachers and students of Dhaka University boycotted the convocation ceremony on February 28 in protest against Yunus attending it. This is possibly the first ever protest he has received as a politician. Scepticism runs deep. If his mentors are firm, he may succeed, some analysts have remarked.

Those who support him and his new party, however, believe that Yunus will be able to save the country from the grip of evil gangs that have hijacked good governance and replaced it with rent-seeking, nepotism, pursuit of easy money, and so on.

As the popularity of the traditional politician is on the wane, Yunus thinks the time is ripe for joining politics. The ground reality is also favourable for him as many people have become disillusioned with the two main parties.

Aspirants to a role in the new party, particularly when most corrupt politicians are on the run, believe Yunus, now 67, has built an instant political base. Though many people say that without massive manipulation from behind the scenes his party would go down the same way as several others have, Yunus is smart enough in this regard.

Political analysts say that in the weeks ahead Yunus will find that he has strong opposition to his plans from both the Awami League and the BNP. The Islamist parties have reacted negatively to his plan, and the Left parties are already dead against him. Therefore, it is not possible to predict the future political situation in Bangladesh even if Yunus's party gains some influence. In any case, Yunus's entry into politics may bring about a qualitative change in traditional politics.

In a democracy, the Chief of the Army Staff does not normally make a public statement. But Lt. General Moeen U. Ahmed said that the armed forces were assisting the government in its fight against corruption. "No martial law exists. The President has declared emergency under a compelling situation.... The armed forces are only assisting the civil administration."

Lashing out at dishonest politicians without naming anyone in particular, Lt. Gen. Moeen said,

"The corrupt, whoever he is - politician, business magnate or bureaucrat - will not be spared."

The caretaker government, as its first step, released a list of the top 50 corrupt politicians and businessmen. New lists will be released in phases.

Fakhruddin Ahmed's administration has already taken certain significant steps, including separating the judiciary from the executive. It has also restructured the Election Commission, reconstituted the Anti-corruption Commission, and continued the drive against adulteration, hoarding and land-grabbing. He said his administration was pledge-bound to create a democratic environment to hold parliamentary polls "at the earliest possible time". On February 27, he said that a specific time frame was not possible because the reforms were being carried out for free, fair and credible elections.

While reforms and the crackdown on crime and corruption are widely acclaimed, many people are of the view that it would have been better if Fakhruddin Ahmed could spell out the tenure of his administration and the time frame for holding the next general elections.

While major political parties are pressing for a definite time frame for the elections, Yunus is strongly in favour of giving the government more time.

But the question is: Will the government finally succeed in its massive drive against crime and corruption? Many fear that if Fakhruddin's caretaker government fails, Bangladesh may plunge into disaster.

There are some intellectuals who are critical of Yunus. They have said that Yunus should first clarify his ideological position. He has so far not cleared his position on the `war criminals' of the 1971 liberation war and the Islamist militants who have threatened the liberal democratic culture of Bangladesh.

They have also questioned Yunus's micro-credit scheme and argued that a micro-credit system cannot be a means of poverty alleviation because it is deeply linked to capitalism, which helps poverty continue. The micro-credit system has rather created institutional opportunities for global capital financing, they say.

Yunus is strongly in favour of giving Chittagong port to the private sector. With such privatisation, Bangladesh can be an open space for global corporate bodies, people argue. Strongly criticising Yunus for terming loans as a "basic human right", one leading Bangladeshi intellectual said loans could never free people from poverty; rather they would leave them indebted.

Dr. Qazi Kholiquzzaman, president of the Bangladesh Economic Association, said the actual interest rate of Grameen Bank was much more than 20 per cent. Its clients were even forced to reduce family expenses to repay the instalments, he said. As a result, the financial situation of a major portion of loan receivers remained at the same level or their condition deteriorated, he argued.

Professor M.M. Akash of Dhaka University said that Grameen Bank had always claimed that its recovery rate was 92 to 98 per cent, but it was actually lower in many cases. He said that Yunus would not be able to stand against global capitalistic forces. "Grameenphone [a mobile phone company founded by Yunus, which is the largest one in Bangladesh] is legally owned by rural women, but in fact a Norwegian company owns its major share," he said.

Speculation is rife that a section of civil society wants a "third force" to emerge to run the country, through a newly orchestrated political process. Is Yunus trying to lead that "third force"? The answer is still not clear.

Analysing the present political situation, a senior commentator wrote: "The problem is that most of the people we see now in politics are not politicians. They are either businessmen or retired bureaucrats or mastans [hoodlums] who have turned politicians overnight by virtue of their muscle power, money or position. It is probably high time that the political leaderships took a close look at the matter and redeemed their strategy."