China bogey

GOING by the incessant barrage of anti-China rhetoric appearing in the Indian media for the past several months, it is a surprise to many observers that Sino-Indian relations still remain on an even keel. Some Indian newspapers and television channels event went to the extent of predicting that China would launch another attack on India within the next decade.

The government was at one stage forced to clamp down on the propaganda that was being fed to a willing section of the media after a front-page report appeared in one of Indias leading dailies claiming that two Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) personnel had died in an alleged skirmish along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). When the story turned out to be patently untrue, the government threatened to take legal action against the journalists who filed the report.

Earlier, sections of the Indian media had highlighted an article by an obscure Chinese blogger that suggested that India was a fragile state. The Chinese state-run media, despite the spate of anti-China articles appearing in the Indian media, have been careful about printing articles that have an overtly anti-India content. The focus of the Chinese government since the late 1990s has been on strengthening economic and cultural links with India. Today, China has emerged as Indias biggest trading partner.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had to issue a statement clarifying that there had been no untoward incidents on the LAC and that relations with Beijing continued to be good. Indian Army chief General Deepak Kapoor, who had earlier harped on the growing Chinese strategic threat, told the media in the third week of September that there was no cause for alarm along the LAC.

Indian officials have said that minor transgressions along the LAC by both sides, while on patrol duty, have been routine. Home Minister P. Chidambaram said that navigational errors could have led to the minor violations along the LAC. Chidambaram pointed out that unlike on the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan, no infiltration or violence took place along the LAC.

The Indian military establishment has been crying hoarse for some time about the growing Chinese military threat. Every move by China in the region is being viewed with suspicion. Chinese help for the upgradation of ports in Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka has been interpreted as moves to encircle India with a string of pearls.

This theory was first propagated by a right-wing think tank in the United States. Former Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon said recently that there were no Chinese naval bases in the region despite all the talk about the string of pearls. Both Myanmar and Sri Lanka have asked India for help in developing important ports. Chinese diplomacy, despite the pinpricks, remains focussed on ensuring the countrys peaceful rise as a superpower in the coming decades.

The phenomenal growth of the Chinese economy has helped Beijing modernise its armed forces. Of particular concern to India has been the expansion of the Chinese navy and air force. Chinas major preoccupation is still the U.S. and its military allies such as Japan. India is also being increasingly viewed as being part of the U.S.-led alliance in the region. Indias participation in the Quadrilateral naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal along with the U.S., Japanese and Australian navies have been taken note of in the region.

The interception of the North Korean ship in August is another example of the close coordination between Washington and New Delhi on proliferation-related issues. Both China and Russia remain steadfastly opposed to the U.S.-sponsored Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI).

Recently, the chief of the Indian Air Force, Air Marshal P.V. Naik, said that China was among the serious geopolitical challenges the country faced. He said that Indias aircraft strength is inadequate and just one-third the strength of Chinas air force. He said that it would take at least three years for the situation to change as India was in the process of augmenting its inventory. His immediate predecessor, Fali Major, had gone to the extent of saying that China posed a greater threat to India than Pakistan.

India has upgraded military airfields along the LAC and moved squadrons to Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh in Jammu and Kashmir. In June, New Delhi announced the deployment of 60,000 additional troops, along with two squadrons of Su-30 MKI strike aircraft, near the LAC.

K. Santhanam, former Director of the Defence Research and Development Organisation, who is in the media spotlight after his claims that Pokhran-II was a failure, said that India needed a credible nuclear deterrent against China. Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat has also started talking about the so-called threat from China.

The heavy investments China has made in Africa and Latin America make it imperative for that country to have a strong maritime fleet. Chinas navy, which has more than 300 ships, could in the next decade become the biggest in the world. India views Chinas attempts to expand its influence to the Gulf of Aden as an intrusion into its own traditional sphere of influence.

The outgoing Indian naval chief, Admiral Sureesh Mehta, in a speech delivered in August, conceded that India was in no position to match hard power capabilities. At the same time, he said that it was important to counter the growing Chinese footprint in the Indian Ocean region.

Many in Indias foreign policy and defence establishments want to ride on the coat-tails of the U.S. to combat the rising Chinese influence in the region. India has pointedly refused to admit China in the 33-member Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS). The IONS initiative is New Delhis brainchild. Indian officials say that China has no locus standi to be a member as IONS membership is restricted to states in the Indian Ocean littoral.

Until early 2008, senior Indian foreign policy officials used to play down stories of friction in Sino-Indian ties. But the mood in South Block seems to have changed suddenly. The same officials claim that China is now a threat to the countrys strategic interests. One of the important factors cited to support this theory is the rise of the Maoists in Nepal.

According to the officials, during the brief period the Maoists were at the helm of affairs, there were a series of high-level visits by Chinese delegations offering generous amounts of financial and developmental aid to the Himalayan state. Another cause for heartburning is the increasing importance Washington has bestowed on Beijing in its efforts to reverse the economic meltdown and solve issues relating to the Korean peninsula and Iran.

Another controversy generated by the Indian media with some help from the officialdom was in connection with Chinas attempt to block an Asian Development Bank (ADB) loan of $2.9 billion to India. The loan included funding for a $60 million water management plan for Arunachal Pradesh. The Chinese objections related to the loan component for Arunachal Pradesh, a disputed territory.

India managed to obtain the loan after a vote in the ADB board. As China continues to lay claim on the State it routinely takes measures to maintain the legality of its claim at the negotiating table.

For some time now, China has made it clear that it is prepared to barter large swathes of territory it controls with India in exchange for Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh. The voluble Minister of State for External Affairs, Shashi Tharoor, in an interview to a television channel, described the Chinese vote in the ADB as outrageous. The Indian side had to resort to back-channel diplomacy to mollify the Chinese side.

Zhan Yan, the Chinese Ambassador to India, had a meeting with senior Indian Foreign Ministry officials in the third week of September after reports of the alleged skirmishes and the ADB loan were highlighted in the Indian media. Another topic that could have come up for discussion was the impending visit of the Dalai Lama to Tawang. Tawang is considered the second holiest place for Tibetan Buddhists after Lhasa. It is unlikely that the Chinese government has taken kindly to the Indian government giving permission to the Tibetan spiritual leader to visit Tawang. The meeting with Indian officials was requested by the Chinese Ambassador.

The Tibet issue has been a major irritant in bilateral ties. China has been accusing India of giving a platform for the splittist Dalai Lama. The anti-China protests staged by Tibetan activists in the run-up to the Beijing Olympics had gone out of hand, causing embarrassment to the Indian government and anger in Beijing. After the serious riots in Lhasa earlier in the year, Chinese public opinion, according to reports in the Western media, has been highly critical of the Dalai Lama and those states supporting his activities.

The Indian government signalled in the second week of September that it wanted bilateral ties to be further strengthened. Indian officials have said that particular attention will be given to economic ties. The officials said that Chinese companies would be allowed to bid for projects in sensitive sectors on a case-by-case basis.

The Indian government also wants to encourage Indian companies to engage in joint ventures with their Chinese counterparts in key sectors such as oil and gas exploration. India and China along with Malaysia have a joint stake in one of Sudans largest oilfields. Indian officials have said that the government will do its best to remove Chinas apprehensions about Indias intentions in the light of recent events.

The officials have said that the talks to resolve the thorny border dispute will be pursued in all seriousness. The 13th round of negotiations between the two sides was held in August. The next round could revolve round the actual demarcation of the border. During the last round, both sides agreed to establish a hotline between the two Prime Ministers.

The only other hotline India has at that level is with the Russian Prime Minister.