Strategic moves

PRESIDENT Barack Obamas decision to suspend the plans to set up new missile bases in the Czech Republic and Poland is being viewed as the first important foreign policy step by the new United States administration. The George W. Bush administration had, in 2002, announced with fanfare that it planned to install a new anti-ballistic missile silo in Poland and a radar base in the Czech Republic. In August 2008, five months before the Bush administration went out, the U.S. signed agreements with the two countries to operationalise the bases in 2012. The outlandish rationale for this given by the neoconservative administration was that the bases were essential to counter the alleged threat that Iran posed to European security.

The Obama administration, too, insists that threats to Europe from rogue states continues to exist. However, Obama, in his live television address in the third week of September, said that his administration would continue to depend on proven, cost-effective missile systems using existing bases and sea-based interceptor systems. He said that it was necessary to deploy a defence system that best responds to the threats that we face. Such a system, he said, would take the form of a stronger, smarter and swifter defence of the U.S. and its military allies.

The President did not, however, spell out the details of the new plan or its possible location.

Robert Gates, the U.S. Defence Secretary, who held the same post in the previous administration, also emphasised that the U.S. had not completely given up its missile defence plan for Europe. Speaking after Obamas announcement, Gates said that the Pentagon was still in negotiations with Poland and the Czech Republic on the deployment of SM-3 missiles on their territory from 2015. The U.S., Gates went on to say, would continue to deploy its proven missile defence systems in Europe.

The SM-3 missile system is designed to shoot down missiles in their terminal flight phase. This is also the one that the U.S. is developing for sale to Israel. The U.S. has also assured Poland that it would implement the Bush administrations promise of installing Patriot missiles on its territory.

There were few takers for the Bush administrations missile bases plan even among Washingtons staunch allies in western Europe. For the record, Obama continues to insist that Moscows fear about the missile defence system was entirely unfounded. The Obama administration has also claimed that the decision to wind up the Czech and Polish bases had nothing to do with Russias strong protests. In his September 17 speech, Obama stated that his new missile defence architecture for Europe would be more comprehensive than the previous [Bush] programme.

West Europeans generally viewed the Bush administrations move as an unnecessary provocation against Moscow. Vladimir Putin, then Russian President, reacted angrily when the decision was first announced. Russia threatened to make countermoves that had the potential to re-ignite another missile race and a Cold War.

To call Washingtons bluff, Moscow made an offer, to build a missile shield jointly in Azerbaijan to counter any threat from Teheran. But the Bush administration, to the alarm of many close European allies, gave the impression that it was determined to go ahead with the missile bases project close to Russias borders.

Many West European countries that Donald Rumsfeld, former U.S. Defence Secretary, had dismissively referred to as old Europe, have forged strong economic links with Russia, especially in the energy sector. The Bush administrations desire to consolidate the special relationship with East and Central European countries, described by Rumsfeld as the new Europe, has always been viewed with deep suspicion by Moscow.

The expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) to Russias doorstep was construed by Moscow as part of Washingtons game plan to militarily encircle the country. The plan to put anti-missile bases in Poland and the Czech Republic was the proverbial last straw for Kremlin.

The political instability triggered by the colour revolutions in eastern and central Europe, manipulated by Washington, has the potential to disrupt the gas flows to western Europe. When Russia temporarily stopped the supply of gas to Ukraine in the winter of 2005-06, many West European countries were also adversely affected.

It was, therefore, no surprise that Obamas decision was welcomed by West European capitals in particular. Russia too has welcomed the decision but has so far reacted cautiously, mainly because the Obama administration has not spelt out in detail what its plans for missile defence really are.

The Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, during his recent visit to New York to address the U.N. General Assembly, described the U.S. decision to scrap the missile shield as a constructive step in the right direction that deserves a positive response from the international community. Medvedev also said that his government would now reverse its decision to place Iskander missiles in the Baltic region.

The White House has said that the decision to scrap the missile defence programme was not taken under pressure from Moscow but was based on inputs from the American military establishment. The U.S. military has belatedly concluded that Iranian missiles are not much of a threat after all. At the same time, the Obama administration says that the U.S. has to be prepared for all eventualities. Hence the talk of developing alternative missile systems to protect Europe from the missiles of rogue nations.

National missile defence has become a theology in the U.S., not a technology, said Phillip Coyle, an expert on the subject, who used to supervise weapons testing for the Pentagon. Obamas right-wing Republican opponents have used words like sell-out and capitulation to describe the junking of the missile bases programme.

Indications are that the Obama administrations move was dictated by the urgent need to bring Russia on board on issues connected with Afghanistan and Iran. Obama had also promised to press the reset button to improve the frayed relations with Moscow.

Reports in the U.S. media suggest that Obama, during his recent visit to Moscow, acknowledged Russias concerns about the U.S. military and political moves in its backyard. The building of the missile bases and the fostering of colour revolutions in central and eastern Europe by the U.S. are of particular concern to Russia. In return, Washington expects Moscow to be of more help in its war effort in Afghanistan. The Russian government recently allowed the U.S. Air Force to use Russian airspace to ferry military supplies to Afghanistan.

That the Obama administration wants Moscows cooperation in its bid to further isolate Iran on the issue of uranium enrichment became all the more evident during the recent U.N. General Assembly meet and the G-20 summit. Irans announcement that a new pilot plant was under construction for uranium enrichment came in for criticism from the Russian President. Iran has emphasised that the second plant that it is building is under Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) specifications.

The U.S. decision to roll back the missile shield has come just before the scheduled October 1 talks between Iran and the Iran Six nations the U.S., the United Kingdom, France, China, Russia and Germany. The Iranian government has said that it will not waver in its quest to harness nuclear energy for peaceful purposes guaranteed under the NPT.

As of now, Russia is sticking to its position on Iran. Speaking soon after Obamas announcement, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, said that additional sanctions against Iran would be a serious mistake. But Medvedev, while addressing a joint press conference with Obama in New York, seemed to be keeping his options open. He said that sanctions, while being rarely productive, were sometimes inevitable. China, on the other hand, has stuck to its stance that more sanctions against Iran will be counter-productive.

Meanwhile, the Iranians have reasons to be concerned on another front. The Obama administration, after scrapping the proposal to deploy missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic, has now announced its decision to sell $7.8 billion worth of Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile batteries to Turkey, Irans next-door neighbour. The White House has said that this is a shift in strategy from fixed missile defence positions in eastern Europe towards a more flexible and adaptable system that is focussed on short-range and mid-range Iranian missiles.