Surge in reverse

Published : Jul 31, 2009 00:00 IST

Jubilant Iraqi soldiers in Basra, Iraqs second largest city, on June 30, following the pullout of U.S. troops.-NABIL AL-JURANI/AP

Jubilant Iraqi soldiers in Basra, Iraqs second largest city, on June 30, following the pullout of U.S. troops.-NABIL AL-JURANI/AP

THE United States-backed government in Iraq declared a national holiday on June 30 to mark the formal withdrawal of American occupation troops, six years and three months after their invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Government-sanctioned celebrations were widespread as the last of the U.S. soldiers retreated from the cities and towns to the sanctuary of their bases.

Walls were festooned with slogans describing the occasion as national sovereignty day and independence day as the Iraqi police and army took control of security in the urban areas.

Some of the U.S. military bases, such as the ones in Baghdad and Mosul, actually fall within city limits. American forces have been told to keep a low profile and make large-scale troop movements only in the stealth of the night. More than 120,000 American soldiers, along with 132,000 U.S. military contractors, of whom 36,000 are U.S. citizens, remain in Iraq belying the claims of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that his forces can handle security matters on its own.

Maliki is trying to portray the troops withdrawal as the end of American occupation. He did not mention that around 50,000 U.S. trainers would remain embedded with Iraqi security forces until the U.S. forces completely withdrew from the country. Iraqs Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani was more circumspect. June 30 is not an historical end point to be celebrated by political philosophers; it is the beginning of a highly uncertain chapter in Iraqi democracy and selfgovernance, he wrote in The Washington Post.

One of the leading resistance groups, the Islamic Army of Iraq, issued a statement which said that if anyone had the right to celebrate victory it should be the resistance groups. They are the ones who brought the occupation to a despicable defeat, the statement said. The Association of Muslim Scholars, which has taken an uncompromising stance against the occupation, issued a statement calling upon Iraqis across the spectrum to keep up the resistance. Opposition leaders said Iraqis should continue their resistance until the last U.S. soldier left the country.

Both the Islamic Army, known to have close links with Saddam Husseins Baath Party, and other militant groups called on Iraqis to desist from sectarian killings. The radical Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr described the pullout as a mere media event. He highlighted the continuing presence of American military personnel, including intelligence agencies and security contractors, in Iraqi cities. Sadr said Iraqis wanted American withdrawal from all aspects of Iraqi life, not just on the military front.

The U.S. has invested huge amounts to build gargantuan bases in Iraq. The Al Asad base, the biggest one, was built at a cost of more than $100 million.

Under the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) signed between the U.S. and the Iraqi governments, all U.S. combat troops have to leave Iraq by the middle of next year. By 2011, even the U.S. trainers and advisers have to quit the country. The SOFA agreement is, however, silent about the status of the military contractors after 2011. They may very well stay on after 2011.

Senior American officials and politicians as well as some prominent Iraqis have started demanding that the U.S. forces should be allowed to stay on for an indefinite period. The U.S. Army Chief of Staff, Gen. George Casey, told the Washington media in late May that the Pentagon was planning for a reality scenario in which the U.S. would have combat troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan for at least 10 years more.

Other U.S. military commanders said recently that the American military presence in Iraq could last for another 15-20 years. Article 27 of the SOFA agreement allows U.S. forces to undertake military operation or any other measure inside Iraqs borders in the event of any internal or external threat or aggression against Iraq. The commander of the U.S. forces in Iraq, Gen. Ray Odierno, told reporters on June 30 that we want to make sure that we have enough forces on the ground to ensure good, legitimate and credible elections. Elections are scheduled to be held in January. Odierno was earlier quoted in the American media as saying that between 30,000-50,000 American troops may remain in Iraq beyond the 2011 deadline.

Iraqis are due to hold a referendum on SOFA on July 30. According to an opinion poll, 73 per cent of all Iraqis oppose the presence of foreign troops on their soil. If the majority vote is against SOFA, then the U.S. will have to accelerate the withdrawal of its troops much before their scheduled departure in 2011. Washington is pressuring the Maliki government against holding the referendum.

In the run-up to the withdrawal of the U.S. soldiers from the populated urban areas, insurgents had set off bombs. June was the bloodiest month this year for Iraqi civilians as well as American and Iraqi soldiers. Many of the Kurds in the north of the country and the Sunnis are wary about the prospects of a Shia-dominated security force roaming the streets of Baghdad, Kirkuk and Mosul.

The virtually autonomous, Kurdish-dominated northern part of the country has been functioning as an American protectorate. Iraqi Sunnis have no love lost for the American occupation forces, but they fear that they could now be targeted for more sectarian attacks. Maliki has established a network of security agencies that report directly to his office as he prepares to contest the elections scheduled for 2010.

Maliki saw it fit to open up Iraqs massive untapped oil and gas reserves to foreign bidders on national sovereignty day. Iraq was among the first countries to nationalise the oil industry, and this earned it the enmity of the West. The fields offered for exploitation by foreign countries hold about 43 billion barrels of crude reserves. Iraq has proven oil reserves of 112 billion barrels and an estimated 150 billion barrels of untapped oil. It has the potential to emerge as the second biggest oil-producing country after Saudi Arabia. It is no surprise that big oil companies such as Shell, Exxon, BP and Total are making a beeline for Iraq.

Iraqis do not want control of their oil to revert once again to foreign companies. Oil workers unions have registered a strong protest against the governments move to privatise the industry. Under pressure from the unions and nationalist politicians, the government has decreed that foreign oil firms will not get a long-term share of Iraqs oil. Instead they will be allowed to work in the country for the next 20 years with a 75 per cent stake in the operations. But many Iraqis continue to be critical of this oil policy. They argue that Iraqis have the expertise to exploit their hydrocarbon resources themselves. They also feel that the government is not doing enough to stop the Kurdish Regional Government from signing lucrative contracts with foreign oil companies, bypassing the central government in Baghdad.

The withdrawal of the American troops marks the end of the military surge that former U.S. President George W. Bush had ordered to meet the military and security challenges posed by the Iraqi resistance forces. President Barack Obama has already signalled that the new U.S. administrations first priority is Afghanistan. That country is now witnessing an American troop surge of its own.

The troop surge in Iraq did not bring any succour to the millions of displaced people there. Iraqs refugee crisis has been described as the biggest in the region since 1948. The professional middle class in Iraq has voted with its feet, preferring to live in refugee camps or work abroad. The country still lacks electricity, water and sanitation services.

The United Nations estimates that 4.7 million Iraqis have been turned into refugees since the American invasion in 2003. The refugees are unwilling to return mainly owing to the prevailing security situation a legacy of the U.S. occupation.

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