Lula's victory

Brazil: Dilma Rousseff encashes on her predecessor Luis Inacio Lula da Silva's popularity to become the country's first woman President.

DILMA ROUSSEFF'S decisive victory in the run-off for the Brazilian presidency on October 31 is a thumping endorsement of the outgoing government's policies. She was picked as the candidate of the Workers' Party (PT) by President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, who during his two successive terms in office turned Brazil into a development model for the region and the rest of the world.

Dilma Rousseff will be the first female head of state of South America's most populous and powerful country. A trained economist who has not held an elected office before, she was made the Minister of Mines and Energy in 2003. Impressed with her efficiency and hard work, Lula da Silva promoted her as his Chief of Staff during his second term.

Dilma Rousseff, a cancer survivor, is the child of a Bulgarian immigrant. While in her teens, she was a member of a Marxist guerilla group seeking to overthrow the military dictatorship that was in power from 1964-1985. She was incarcerated and tortured for more than three years in the 1970s for this.

Riding on the coat-tails of Lula da Silva's popularity he enjoys an unprecedented 80 per cent public approval rating Dilma Rousseff was expected to sail through in the first round of the presidential contest held in the first week of October. But an unexpectedly strong showing by Marina Silva, the candidate of the Green Party, robbed her of an outright victory in the first round itself. Many of PT's traditional voters opted for Marina Silva, a former Minister in the Lula government, and she took nearly 20 per cent of the votes. An evangelical Christian, she attracted strong support from evangelical groups for her strong anti-abortion stance. Jose Serra, Dilma Rousseff's main challenger from the centre-right Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB), came second with 33 per cent of the votes in the first round.

Opinion polls, which had predicted a landslide victory for Dilma Rousseff in the first round, were way off the mark. Marina Silva was expected to poll only around 8 per cent of the votes. She stayed neutral in the run-off, but the final results showed that most of her supporters eventually shifted their support to Dilma Rousseff despite Jose Serra and the PSDB focussing on the abortion issue. Christian evangelical groups from the United States have made tremendous inroads into predominantly Catholic Brazil. However, in the final analysis, it was bread-and-butter issues that mattered to the electorate.

The fears that the Green Party's vote would be transferred en bloc to Jose Serra in the run-off were misplaced. Lula once again personally took charge of Dilma Rousseff's slightly faltering campaign and swung the electoral tide back in favour of the PT. Dilma Rousseff won with 55 per cent of the votes. Lula's popularity also ensured that the coalition led by the ruling party got a working majority in both houses of Parliament.

Impressive turnaround

In retrospect, it has been an impressive turnaround for her. When her candidature was first announced last year, her popularity rating was in the single digits. Until last year, many had considered Jose Serra a shoo-in for the presidency. A political veteran, he had contested against Lula four years ago and is the popular Governor of Sao Paulo State, the economic powerhouse of Brazil. But he turned out to be a lacklustre campaigner. He tried to emulate the tactics of the Republican Party in the U.S. by campaigning on issues that had emotional appeal among conservative Christians.

Not that Dilma Rousseff set the campaign trail on fire. It was Lula's decision to hit the road jointly with her before the October 31 run-off election that probably turned the electoral tide. Lula's record in office was in itself a selling point and Dilma Rousseff promised the electorate that she would protect his legacy. The Brazilian economy is doing much better now than it did under the eight years of PSDB rule. Per capita income grew by 23 per cent from 2002 to 2010 as against 3.5 per cent in the previous eight years. Unemployment is at an all-time low of 6.2 per cent. The minimum wage adjusted to inflation grew by 65 per cent during Lula's presidency.

Another important social achievement in the past eight years was the poverty eradication programme called Bolsa Familia (family grant), which provided cash grants to poor families on condition that they send their children to school and follow health immunisation programmes. It has benefited more than 13 million families and also helped bring down illiteracy. The government's fiscal policies have facilitated the lifting of more than 19 million people from below poverty line to middle-class levels. Government subsidies have helped many poor Brazilians build their own homes.

Dilma Rousseff, as Lula's Chief of Staff, supervised the growth acceleration programme (PAC), which involved the distribution of financial aid to the impoverished parts of the country. Brazil trails Chile, Uruguay and Argentina in per capita income, but in terms of its economy, it is currently growing at a much faster rate than those countries.

Speaking immediately after the final results were announced, the 62-year-old Dilma Rousseff acknowledged the key role played by Lula in her historic victory. She hinted that Lula would continue to play an important role in guiding her government. I will be knocking on his door often, which I am sure will always be open, she said in her victory speech. She also reiterated her commitment to end absolute poverty in the country. We cannot rest when Brazilians go hungry, while families are living on the streets, while poor children are abandoned, the President-elect said.

Continuity in foreign policy is also a given. Lula's foreign policy initiatives put Brazil on the international centre stage. His last grand gesture was the joint initiative with Turkey to stave off punitive sanctions and the possibility of war against Iran. The Barack Obama administration in the U.S. did not take kindly to this and to other steps taken by Brazil in the global arena. Brazil has also been supportive of the governments of Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador, which have taken a strong stance against U.S. policies in the region. From the beginning of his term in office, Lula was a steadfast backer of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, the standard bearer of the anti-U.S. bloc in the region. One of the first things he did after being elected to office in 2002 was to rush much-needed gasoline supplies to Venezuela. That country was then reeling from fuel shortages caused by a strike sponsored by right-wing parties.

Jose Serra had criticised Lula's foreign policy, especially his close relations with the leftist bloc of nations in Latin America. On the campaign trail, he faulted the Brazilian government for not recognising the regime that was installed after a military coup in Honduras last year. He accused Venezuela of giving sanctuary to the guerillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) battling the Colombian army. He also questioned the rationale of Brazil joining Mercosur, or the Southern Common Market, the trade bloc that aims to integrate South American economies and promote independence from the U.S. The other members of this grouping are Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. Venezuela is on the verge of joining it.

Brazil is also a major moving force behind Unasur, or the Union of South American Nations. This regional grouping, modelled after the European Union, was founded in 2008. It seeks to unify Latin American nations into one bloc and make it more significant than the Organisation of American States (OAS). The U.S. and Canada are members of the OAS.

Jose Serra, on the campaign trail, said that Brazil was limiting its economic options by identifying too closely with the radical regimes in the region. Eighty per cent of Brazil's exports now go the South American market. Dilma Rousseff is an avowed supporter of Latin American integration. She said that Brazil should strengthen ties with all our South American neighbours through solidarity, not through imperialism. Washington wants to roll back the pink revolution that has swept many parts of the continent. Today, Washington is left with only a few dependable allies in the region to do its bidding. A victory for the opposition in Brazil would, therefore, have been welcome news for the U.S.