New dynamics

Turkey: Under the AKP government, the country has fashioned its own foreign policy instead of slavishly following the West's agenda.

IT has been apparent to the West for many years now that the government in Ankara led by the Justice and Development Party (or AK Party) is not a pushover, unlike previous governments. Turkey, one of the original members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), is no longer afraid to stand up to the United States on issues that are vital to its national interests. In the past eight years, under the leadership of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the country has emerged as one of the key actors on the international stage.

Turkey first surprised the West when its Parliament voted to deny permission to the U.S. to use Turkish soil for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The latest manifestations of its independent foreign policy are the position it has taken on Gaza and its joint initiative with Brazil to find a solution to the U.S.-Iran standoff on the nuclear issue.

Turkey's strategic location at the crossroads of West Asia, Europe and Central Asia is being adroitly exploited by the AKP government. Oil and gas pipelines from Central and West Asia pass through Turkey to the energy-hungry West, giving the country immense economic and political leverage. It has strengthened its own energy security by dramatically improving relations with Russia and Iran. Russia and Turkey no longer see themselves as adversaries in Central Asia and the Caucasus. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkey, given its cultural and linguistic influence in the region, had tried aggressively to expand its influence as a proxy for the West. However, the country now relies on Russia for 60 per cent of its energy imports and on Iran for 30 per cent.

Under the AKP government, Turkey has fashioned its own domestic and foreign policies instead of slavishly following the West's agenda, as previous governments did. Today, Turkey's economy is the 17th largest in the world and leading economists predict that it has a good chance of making it to the top 10 by 2050.

The Turkish military, which until recently had virtual veto powers on key policy issues, has been cut down to size. There have been some attempts at destabilising the government by some cliques in the army in alliance with right-wing political elements. The last attempt by the military at staging a soft coup, on the pretext of safeguarding secularism, was nipped in the bud. Today, the military leadership is committed to defending the Turkish Constitution and the people's mandate.

Turkey has the second biggest army within NATO; it is the only country in the region today that can realistically challenge the might of the Israeli army. Like Israel, Turkey has benefited from its close relationship with the West since the late 1940s. Its army is as well-equipped as that of Israel. Tel Aviv has reasons to worry about its deteriorating relationship with Ankara. In October last year, Turkey cancelled Israel's participation in a military exercise. After the recent attack on the Gaza aid flotilla, Turkey announced that it would no longer allow the Israeli air force to use its airspace and cancelled several joint military exercises.

Given its small size, Israel has to use the airspace of other countries for training purposes. Israel and India continue to hold joint military exercises. Turkey has indicated that it will not buy Israeli weaponry and may be on the verge of cancelling lucrative military deals that have already been inked. It has also issued subtle warnings that the future of the U.S. military base in Incirlik may be jeopardised if Washington tries to isolate Ankara diplomatically or encourage Kurdish separatism. The Incirlik base is crucial for U.S. military operations in Iraq and the rest of West Asia.

Turkey, along with India and China, is one of the biggest buyers of Israeli weapons such as drones and missiles. Again, like India, it is led by a centre-right government. But unlike India, it is not scared to cross swords with the U.S. on contentious issues such as Iran and Palestine. Israel, in a desperate effort to repair its relations with Turkey, despatched a covert diplomatic mission in the last week of June. Turkish media have reported that Israel is ready to apologise for the killing of nine Turks on board the relief ship headed for Gaza and pay compensation. Turkey, however, has reiterated that relations can be back to normal only if Israel holds an international inquiry into the killings and lifts the blockade on Gaza. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, the architect of Turkey's new foreign policy, described the Israeli act as an example of state terrorism and compared it to the events of September 11, 2001.

Turkey, until now, was the Muslim country with the cosiest relationship with Israel. The strong military and strategic ties were first forged when Turkey was under the sway of its military and the pro-European elite. The relationship started fraying seriously after Israel's attack on Lebanon in 2006. At the time, Erdogan was engaged in behind-the-scenes diplomacy to start peace talks between Syria and Israel. He was extremely unhappy with the Israeli government when it reneged at the eleventh hour on its commitment to start talks with Syria and instead opted for an aggressive course.

It was the three-week-long Israeli attack on the hapless people of Gaza that irrevocably changed public opinion in Turkey against the Jewish state. The scene of an angry Erdogan walking out of a joint press conference at the Davos Business summit in 2009, after clashing with Israeli President Shimon Peres, boosted Turkey's profile in the Arab and Muslim world.

The AKP, under the leadership of Erdogan, first came to power in 2002. In 2007, it came back to office with a massive majority. The mandate gave Erdogan the confidence to start implementing the AKP's ambitious plans for the country. Taking a page from China's peaceful transition to big power status, the Turkish government decided to use soft power to advance its interests. The government said that its main foreign policy goal was to ensure zero problems with neighbours.

Today, Turkey's ties with neighbouring Syria are the best they ever have had. In the late 1990s, it was on the verge of waging war against Syria. Damascus had provided refuge to the Kurdish separatist leader Abdullah Ocalan at the time. It was only after Ocalan was told to leave Syria that Turkish troops withdrew from the border. Relations with Greece have improved dramatically despite the Cyprus problem. During his recent visit to Athens, Erdogan signed 21 agreements. The two nations, which were on the verge of war in the 1970s, are now talking about reducing their military budgets.

Erdogan visited neighbouring Armenia last year. Both sides have signed a peace treaty, ending almost a century of animosity. Though Ankara is reluctant to acknowledge the full extent of the killings in Armenia that took place in 1915 when the region was under Ottoman rule, most historians believe that more than a million Armenians perished. Turkey temporarily withdrew its ambassadors from France and the U.S. after legislatures there passed resolutions terming the atrocities against the Armenians as genocide.

Turkish historians and politicians refuse to use the word genocide while disputing the numbers of those killed in the pogrom. Turkey and Armenia also disagree on the dispute regarding the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Ankara supports the claims of Azerbaijan, which claims the territory that is currently under the control of Armenian separatists. But these differences have not stopped the two countries from starting negotiations to reopen their borders and establishing trade and diplomatic relations. Turkey also has managed to mend relations with Iran. The continuing efforts by Ankara in cooperation with Brasilia to find a solution to the Iran nuclear issue is an illustration. Davutoglu said in early June that the country's position on Iran was dictated by the need to defend regional peace, global peace, and national interests.

Relations with neighbouring Iraq are also good. The initial fears in Ankara that the Kurds in northern Iraq would become the epicentre of an independent state seem to have disappeared. Relations with the autonomous Kurds of northern Iraq have improved to such an extent that Turkish oil companies are among the biggest among those operating there in the energy sector.

At the same time, the Turkish Army does not hesitate to stage cross-border raids in hot pursuit of PKK guerillas, who have once again escalated the fight for a Kurdish homeland. As many as 12 million Kurds live in Turkey and another five million live in Iraq. Syria and Iran also have sizable Kurdish minorities. Turkey is positioning itself to play an important role in Iraq once the Americans leave.

Zero problems with its immediate neighbours and former rivals could provoke a diplomatic backlash from the West. France and Germany were in a way responsible for Turkey opting for a new foreign policy course after they prevented its entry into the European Union. In 2002, over 70 per cent of the population supported E.U. membership. But now only half the population is in favour of joining the E.U.

The U.S., which was a strong backer of Turkey's entry into the E.U., is now worried about the active role the country is playing in West Asian politics. Right-wing politicians in the U.S., such as Liz Cheney, a Republican and the daughter of former Vice-President Dick Cheney, want Turkey in a new axis of evil. Liz Cheney said that Turkey was intent on destroying America's closest ally in the region Israel.