Sweep of hope

Published : May 04, 2012 00:00 IST

Aung San Suu Kyi arrives at the NLD headquarters in Yangon on April 2.-KHIN MAUNG WIN/AP

Aung San Suu Kyi arrives at the NLD headquarters in Yangon on April 2.-KHIN MAUNG WIN/AP

Myanmar: The country moves a step closer to full democracy following the NLD's emphatic victory in the recent round of byelections.

IT has been quite evident since the late 1980s that Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), will get an overwhelming majority in Myanmar if they are allowed to contest in free and fair elections. The results of the latest round of byelections, therefore, did not come as a surprise. Despite initial misgivings expressed by Suu Kyi, the elections in 45 constituencies on April 1 were held in a transparent manner, overseen by a large contingent of foreign observers and mediapersons. According to Myanmar's Election Commission, the NLD won in 43 of the 44 seats it contested, including the four seats in the capital, Nay Pyi Taw. In one constituency, the NLD candidate was disqualified. The candidate of the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party won there.

The victory in Nay Pyi Taw is significant as the capital is populated by government servants and military officials. The constituencies here were supposed to be strongholds of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the ruling party created by the military. Perceptive observers of the Myanmarese political scene fear that open-ended democracy of the kind practised in India would usher in identity politics. The minorities constitute more than 30 per cent of the population. Going by the present trends, this fear seems to be misplaced. But as multi-party democracy takes firm root, the minorities, most of whom have been at war with the Central government since the 1950s, are all likely to vote for their own ethnic parties. This could lead to fractious politics once civilians are fully in control. The military has tried to justify its rule by claiming that it is the only force capable of preventing the break-up of the country.

The NLD claims to have won 80 per cent of the votes polled nationally. The party, according to reports, did well in areas populated by ethnic minorities and even in Army bases. The national elections held in 2010 were rigged in favour of the Army. More than two-thirds of the 430 seats in Parliament are stacked with its supporters. Suu Kyi had asked her supporters to boycott the elections, which were internationally condemned as flawed. The next general elections are due only in 2015.

The NLD has asked for the Army-drafted Constitution to be rewritten so that the politics of the country can be fully free of military influence. Suu Kyi, speaking after the elections, said her party's priorities were to push for the rule of law and for peace in ethnic-minority areas that have witnessed insurgencies for decades.

Under the present Constitution, the head of state, the President, has to have an Army background. The President is also the only constitutional authority who has the power to choose the Cabinet and the appointees to the Supreme Court. The Constitution seems to have been inspired by the Indonesian Constitution that existed during the time of President Suharto. The Indonesian Army was guaranteed a sizeable veto-wielding presence in the country's Parliament from the 1970s.

The current civilian government in Myanmar is dominated by retired and serving military officers and their cronies. In the 1990 elections, the NLD won 60 per cent of the votes and 80 per cent of the seats in Parliament. The military junta at the time chose to ride roughshod over popular will. It imprisoned thousands of political activists and forced many more into exile to neighbouring countries such as Thailand and India.

The reform process in Myanmar, currently being anchored by President Thein Sein, a former Army general, with the active support of Suu Kyi, has been welcomed by the international community. But its strongest backers are in the West. United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was the first to congratulate the government of Myanmar on the successful holding of the April elections. Speaking in Istanbul, where she had gone to attend a Friends of Syria conference aimed at undermining the government in Damascus, she praised the people who had participated, many for the first time, in the election process. She also called for more reform efforts from the Myanmarese government. The Barack Obama administration seems to be working closely with the current Army leadership in Myanmar as the country prepares for meaningful power-sharing with the NLD. Suu Kyi described the election results as a triumph of the people and expressed the hope that this would signal the beginning of a new era.

Hillary Clinton was in Myanmar in December. It was the first official visit by a U.S. Secretary of State to the country in the last 50 years. In January, the U.S. announced that it was dispatching an ambassador to Myanmar, signalling that the diplomatic isolation of the military-led government by the West was almost over. In February, Washington announced that it no longer had any objections to World Bank funds flowing into the country. The West, according to most observers, is trying to cash in on the Myanmarese elite's wariness of what it perceives as the government's overdependence on China. Influential sections of the Army, along with the NLD leadership, now want the West to counterbalance the Chinese economic influence in the country.

In the old days, the Myanmarese government used to look up to India as a counterweight to China. In fact, in the late 1980s, a chauvinistic section of the media close to the Army leadership tried to paint Suu Kyi as a chapatti loving politician beholden to India. Suu Kyi now is more dependent on the West for political succour. Many of her recent statements indicate that she is not too happy with New Delhi after the Indian government, in the beginning of the last decade, decided to establish friendly relations with the military junta while she languished under house arrest.

New Delhi and Beijing have welcomed the new developments in Myanmar and have called for the lifting of the economic sanctions imposed by the West on the country. China, Myanmar's biggest trading partner and investor, called for the removal of all the punitive economic and political sanctions.

Steady ties with China

Relations between China and Myanmar remain steady despite the precipitate cancellation of a $3.6-billion dam project that was being built by a Chinese company. Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), at a summit meeting, had issued a call for the immediate lifting of the international sanctions on Myanmar so that the political reform process could be speeded up. Washington has announced that it will begin targeted easing of the sanctions. U.S. officials have said that agriculture, tourism, banking and telecommunications will be among the sectors chosen to relax sanctions. The NLD has supported the military government's blueprint for converting the country into a cheap labour platform for Western companies.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in a report released in January, predicted that Myanmar had a high growth potential and could become the next economic frontier in Asia. The government is drafting laws that will provide a five-year tax exemption for foreign investors, permit full repatriation of profits, and provide assurance against nationalisation of foreign-owned properties. Foreign investors will be allowed to buy property or lease land directly and will no longer need local partners.

The military-led government has also provided loud hints that Suu Kyi will soon join the government in a senior capacity. The NLD leader has so far insisted that she will not join the government in any capacity. The Army-led government will need her backing as it lays the groundwork for its ambitious privatisation programme. The NLD will be used as a safety valve as public sector workers and other ordinary citizens see their salaries diminish further. With the privatisation process already under way, many workers have lost their jobs.

The Obama administration seems to be taking carefully calibrated decisions on the issue of lifting the sanctions on Myanmar. It wants the military-led government to give the opposition led by Suu Kyi a more meaningful role in the running of the government and also to start peace talks with the various ethnic insurgent groups such as the Kachins, the Karens and the Shans. After the byelection results, leaders of the Kachin National Union, one of the biggest insurgent groups, met Thein Sein and Suu Kyi.

Most of the big insurgent groups, barring the Karens, while agreeing to a preliminary ceasefire, are demanding greater autonomy for their regions. The Karens, located in the north of the country, continue to attack government forces sporadically and have so far refused to enter into negotiations with the Central government.

Washington also wants verifiable termination of Myanmar's military ties with North Korea. The European Union has also indicated that it is on the verge of lifting all sanctions and is only waiting for the freeing of the remaining political prisoners.

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