Troubled transition

As Egypt treads between anarchy and stability, Mohamed Morsys acumen as President is bound to be tested. Will he emerge as a defender of the revolution or as a theocratic counter-revolutionary?

in Dubai

Like most modern revolutions known for their ebbs and flows until they settle into their new national moorings, the Egyptian revolution is also going through phases of turbulence. While the revolution has been largely faceless since the fall of former President Hosni Mubarak, the current President, Mohamed Morsy, is now emerging as its new, assertive symbol.

Morsy has drawn praise and brickbats alike because he has forced the issue of shaping the countrys transition from an era of authoritarian rule under Mubarak to an imperfect democracy steered by Islamists, who wield the maximum power in the country at present. At this critical juncture, the President treads a thin line that separates a strong revolutionary leader from a counter-revolutionary dictator.

Frustrated by repeated attempts by a liberal and secular opposition to stall the formation of a new Constitution, Morsy decided to bite the bullet. On November 22, he issued a decree that gave him sweeping powers, neutralising the challenge posed by 43 lawsuits that had been filed in the courts to trash the 100-member Assembly. The constitutional order elevated the Constituent Assembly, engaged in drafting the national charter, beyond the reach of the judiciary. This was a crippling blow to the secularists, who no longer could go to the courts to seek a ban on the existing Assembly.

The order also sacked Abdel-Meguid Mahmoud, the much maligned Prosecutor General. Mahmoud had earlier been targeted by protesters for his alleged role in protecting Mubarak-era remnants in the security forces. Talaat Ibrahim will now succeed Mahmoud. He will play a major role in the retrial that Morsy has ordered of all those who have been charged with killing or injuring protesters during the 2011 uprising. Morsy also declared that all officials facing allegations of terrorising protesters during Mubaraks rule would be made to retire. By promulgating his decree, the President sent clear signals of his intention to purge the system of Mubarak-era remnants. The big question that remains unanswered is about his own future plans. Given a chance, will he pack the administration with favourites from the Islamist camp or, instead, look for qualified technocrats to revamp Egyptian institutions in a non-partisan manner?

Soon after his inauguration, President Morsy consolidated his powers by successfully challenging the countrys military top brass, which had steered Egypts initial transition to democracy. Now, armed with his decree, he has taken on the judiciary. Once approved in a popular referendum, the new national charter will pave the way for fresh parliamentary elections. The decree also saved the Shura Council, the Upper House of Parliament, from dissolution.

The Muslim Brotherhood, Morsys parent organisation, defended the presidential edict. Ali Abdel-Fattah, a prominent Brotherhood member, told Ahram Online that the President has full rights as a democratically elected leader to initiate a declaration in the absence of a legislative body. Earlier, Morsy had told his supporters outside the presidential palace that his sole aim was to impart political, social and economic stability to the country through the decree.

Despite the reassurances, the move has ignited a political firestorm. Mohamed ElBaradei, the former International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief, tweeted: Morsy today usurped all state powers and appointed himself Egypts new pharaoh. A major blow to the revolution that could have dire consequences. He had earlier slammed Egypts meandering political process as the stupidest transition in history.

Mohamed Waked, founder of the National Front for Justice and Democracy, called the presidential ruling a pre-emptive measure aimed at preventing any potential ruling against the Assembly. Others criticised Morsys move as a judicial coup that made a mockery of the principle of separation of powersthe foundation of any democracy.

It is possible that Morsy underestimated the hostility that the declaration would invoke. He had timed it after a major foreign policy accomplishment. The Egyptian intelligence had played a central role in securing an honourable ceasefire for Hamas, which had been engaged for eight days in a war with Israel. His role in brokering the deal boosted his image not only at home and in the region but also in the rest of the world and earned praise from United States President Barack Obama. From Cambodia, where he had gone to participate in the East Asia summit, Obama sent his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Cairo. In the arc lights of the global media, Hillary Clinton thanked Morsy for his personal leadership to de-escalate the situation in Gaza and end the violence.

Clearly, Obama saw Morsy as another soft Islamistwith stark similarities to the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In Washingtons view, the two could play a strategic role of expanding Western influence in the region, including Syria, through the mobilisation of the trans-national Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas is also a Muslim Brotherhood offshoot. In line with Washingtons world view, Morsy now finds himself well positioned to moderate the groups position towards Israel.

However, the international acclaim did not enhance Morsys legitimacy at home, where it remained tied to more earthy bread-and-butter issues and demands for the strengthening of civil rights. But the Egyptian President was not finished yet. The judges were up in arms against the decree, but he reached out to them in a bid to defuse their revolt. It was with the intention of finding some common ground that the President met the judges for several hours. Morsys spokesman Yasser Ali clarified after the meeting that the powers conferred on the President by the constitutional declaration, which were interpreted by critics as a hasty power grab, were not all-encompassing. Morsy would be immune to judicial intervention on sovereign issues alone, he said.

Analysts say that the Presidents authority on sovereign issues implies that courts will not be able to dissolve the Constituent Assembly and the Shura Council, while other presidential decisions could be challenged before the courts.

It appeared initially that Morsy had achieved a compromise with the judiciary, which may have persuaded the President to yield ground only on peripheral issues, without touching the core elements of his new powers. On November 25, the apex Supreme Judicial Council signalled its intention to meet the President halfway. It said in a statement that Morsys decree should apply to sovereign matters, stopping well short of an outright rejection of the Presidents position.

Ali, the spokesman, said that during the meeting with the judges, Morsy expressed his appreciation of the judiciary, whose independence, he said, must be maintained because it was the last resort for the people to get their rights. The President also stressed that those accused of killing protesters would face retrials only if new evidence was produced against them.

Morsys overtures to the judiciary and the commitment that his decree would apply only to sovereign matters, however, did little to cool tempers among the secularists and their allies. On the contrary, the haste with which the new Constitution was being writtenin fact the draft was ready by the morning of November 30has fuelled anger against the government.

It was therefore not surprising that anti-Morsy demonstrators once again thronged Cairos Tahrir Square, joining those who had already established a permanent encampment at Egypts anti-establishment icon. The protesters began focussing on the mobilisation of opinion against the constitutional draft during the referendum that will now follow. Hamdeen Sabahi, a former presidential candidate from the Nasserite party at the Tahrir rally, said: Egypt will not be forced to choose between a dictatorial declaration and a rushed constitution written by a fraction of Egyptian society. Egypt will not bow down to the will of a few, he added. Along with Sabahi, a re-energised ElBaradei has been vocal in protests that have followed the presidential decreetheir exertions signalling the re-emergence of the opposition in a more organised form.

The two leaders have been joined by a veteran diplomat and another presidential candidate, Amr Moussa, to form what has been dubbed the National Salvation Front (NSF). Another new entrant to the influential group is Samir Morcos. His entry into the NSF is particularly damaging for Morsys image. Morcos was a presidential adviser, and as an insider, his rejection of the government carries much weight among people who do not belong to either ideological camp. Besides, Morcos is a respected Coptic thinker, and his denouncement of the Morsy camp, to that extent, can abrade ties between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Coptic Christians, who comprise nearly 10 per cent of Egypts population. With protests unabated and the judiciary divided, Morsy is moving with considerable haste to put the Constitution draft to popular vote and permanently change the script of the political discourse. In a show of strengthnecessary to deny his opponents psychological ascendancyMorsy called for a rally outside Cairo University on December 1. Crowds of supporters from the Muslim Brotherhood also converged in other cities, including Alexandria, the countrys second largest, and Assiut in the south.

The assembling of supporters mirrored the broad divide between the Islamists and the secularists. Morsys backers raised slogans with distinct Islamist overtones. Islamist [state] everywhere, shouted some, while others extolled the virtue of such a state to counter the forces of injustice and tyranny. Many chanted, God is great, people [support] the decisions of the President.

Later in the evening, Morsy played his trump card. Egypt would hold a referendum on the newly written draft Constitution on December 15, he announced. The declaration was suitably aired inside the Cairo International Conference Centre where 85 members of the Constituent Assembly had gathered. In a televised speech, Morsy praised the assembly for its diligence. The Constitution you wrote is comprehensive and represents all Egyptian people. It minimises the Presidents power and gives full respect to the independence of judiciary and legislative authority, observed the President. I am proud of you all for your efforts. I thank you on behalf of myself and my people who elected me as their President.

Fifteen liberal and Coptic members of the Assembly boycotted the meeting, but Morsy had laudatory words for them, too, for their contribution to the Constitution-framing process. Yet there have been warnings that a counter-revolution, led by people who had benefited under the Mubarak government, was lurking round the corner. In a speech to his supporters who had joined his rally, Morsy said: To the corrupters who hide under respectable cover, I say, Never imagine that I cant see you. Im on the lookout for them and will never let them go.

Morsys advisers acknowledge that recourse to the controversial decree was regrettable. But they add that the President had no other option as the revolution had been endangered by people who belong to the deep statethat includes Mubarak-era judges and some prominent media personalities. Packed with judges that were appointed by the old guard, the courts have an unflattering record of dissolving an elected parliament and disbanding the first Constituent Assembly formed after Mubaraks exit. An Alexandria judge affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood wrote on the groups website that the court spearheads a scheme for the demolition of the Egyptian state.

As Egypt treads between anarchy and stability, Morsys acumen as politician, ideologue and President is bound to be tested. The coming months will reveal whether the President, under the trying circumstances that he continues to encounter, will become a defender of the revolution or a counter-revolutionary with the DNA of a theocrat.