The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) witnessed its first peaceful transfer of power since the country’s independence in 1960, in the elections held on December 30. The final results were officially announced in the second week of January. The outcome has surprised the international community. Western governments and media outlets had predicted that the outgoing President Joseph Kabila would ensure the victory of Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, the candidate of the ruling People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD), by misusing state machinery and rigging the elections.
The results proved otherwise. Felix Tshisekedi, the leader of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress, the biggest opposition party in the country, was declared winner. The country’s Election Commission credited him with getting the largest number of votes (38 per cent). Although international election observers felt the elections were far from fair and transparent, long lines of enthusiastic voters were seen waiting outside polling booths in the capital, Kinshasa, and other cities. Local pollsters and the West heavily favoured Martin Fayulu, a former Exxon-Mobil executive. According to the Election Commission, he bagged 34 per cent of the votes. Shadary trailed far behind.
Fayulu was initially the candidate of the united opposition. Tshisekedi, who had backed the agreement reached by opposition leaders at a meeting in Switzerland in 2018, broke ranks with them at the eleventh hour and decided to run on his own. His father, Etienne Tshisekedi, had waged a long battle against the Mobutu Sese Seko regime and later against Kabila. He died two years ago in Belgium. His body still lies in a mortuary there. Kabila did not allow the burial ceremony to be held in the DRC fearing that it had the potential to trigger a mass upsurge.
The Catholic Church, under the auspices of Episcopal Conference of Congo (CENCO), had deployed 41,000 election observers across the length and breadth of the chaotic country. The Church hierarchy has raised serious doubts about the election results. Electronic touch screen voting was introduced for the first time in the country where the majority of the people are not computer literate. Uninterrupted power supply is also a rarity in the Congo. There were frequent blackouts during the polling along with reports of ballot stuffing and police heavyhandedness.
Financial Times , in a report that is based on data obtained through an anonymous source in the Election Commission, concluded that there was massive fraud in the counting process and that Fayulu had secured 59 per cent of the vote. The government spokesman said that the Catholic Church, by unilaterally declaring Fayulu the winner, was breaking constitutional and electoral laws and was looking “to start a popular revolt that it will end up being responsible for”.
Elections in the DRC, a country with a population of more than 84 million people, were held at a time when a deadly outbreak of the Ebola virus had afflicted some areas. Rebel militias operating in several other areas did not allow voting to take place. The absence of a road or rail network in the country made the situation even more complicated. The United Nations Organisation Stabilisation Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, or MONUSCO, the largest peacekeeping force deployed in the world, has not successed in quelling the myriad uprisings that have bedevilled the DRC for the past three decades. There are more than a hundred militias operating in eastern Congo.
Crying foul, Fayulu and his supporters have demanded a recount. Fayulu claims that he won by a landslide and that he has been deprived of a sure victory by the machinations of Kabila and Tshisekedi. Many Western capitals have refused to recognise the results. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that “the declared results are not consistent with the true results”. The Kabila government’s spokesman retorted by saying that if the French Foreign Minister thought that Congo was a colony of France then he “just needs to name the President of Congo”. France has a dubious history in the region. Its troops and mercenaries had a big role in propping up the rapacious dictatorship under Mobutu.
There was even talk of bringing the issue to vote in the U.N. Security Council at the behest of the West. Russia and China, however, blocked the move saying that it would amount to interference in the internal affairs of the DRC. The United States State Department, however, warned the Congolese government that “those who undermine the democratic process” would be put on the U.S. sanctions list and “may find themselves not welcome in the United States and [would be] cut off from the U.S. financial system”.
Kabila’s allies, such as Angola and the Republic of the Congo, supported the call for a recount. Even the Southern African Development Council (SADC) seems to be in two minds about accepting the validity of the results. “A recount would provide the necessary assurances for the winners as well as the losers,” it said in a statement. Approval of the results by regional partners is essential for the stability of a Tshisekedi-led government.
Although Tshisekedi has been elected to the presidency, the Kabila-led coalition, the Common Front for Congo (FCC), has won the majority of the seats (288 out of 500) in Parliament. Tshisekedi’s party won only 46 seats. Fayulu, who came second in the presidential race, got 94 seats. Parliament decides who becomes the Prime Minister. The Prime Minster has considerable powers under the Constitution and he will, in all probability, be somebody close to the former President. Kabila was quick to accept the election results despite his party candidate’s defeat.
Tshisekedi, on his part, denied that there was any secret deal with Kabila in the run-up to the long- delayed elections. In his victory speech, he made it a point to emphasise that Kabila would be “an important partner” in his government, which will necessarily be one of “cohabitation”. Tshisekedi’s running mate, Vital Kamerhe, was the campaign manager of Kabila in a previous election. The SADC has recommended the setting up of a government of national unity that would include supporters of all the three main presidential contenders.
Kabila’s manoeuvres
The elections were originally scheduled to be held in 2016. Kabila was constitutionally barred from running for a third term. His attempts at changing the Constitution were thwarted by an international outcry. Kabila’s major regional allies, such as South Africa and Angola, also warned him against seeking a consecutive third term. The African Union (A.U.) also cautioned him against running again. In the third week of January, the A.U., in a surprise move, called for a delaying of the official announcement of the results. It said that it had “serious doubts” about the conduct of the elections. Congo’s Constitutional Court rejected the A.U.’s appeal on January 19 while endorsing the results put out by the Election Commission. The court said that calls for a “recount” were absurd and that Fayulu had not provided any evidence to prove his allegations about rigging.
The European Union (E.U.) had put many of Kabila’s close associates, including the presidential candidate Shadary, on its sanctions list. The West would not have accepted the victory of a stand-in for Kabila. As it is, Kabila continues to be the head of the PPRD and also the leader of the FCC.
Mineral-rich country
Kabila, however, was reluctant to hand over power to political rivals such as Fayulu, who had sworn to reverse his economic policies and launch anti-corruption investigations. The Kabila family, ensconced for more than two decades in power, has amassed a great deal of wealth and influence. The mineral-rich country, where the overwhelming majority of the people still live in extreme poverty, is also among the most corrupt in the world. Fayulu had the backing of Moise Katumbi, one of the Congo’s richest businessmen and currently resident in South Africa, and Jean Pierre-Bemba, a notorious warlord. Both of them were barred from running for the presidency. Katumbi has the backing of influential Western countries and business conglomerates.
Chinese companies had bagged many of the mining contracts in the past two decades. Many countries are vying with one another to exploit the untapped riches of the DRC, but the government in Kinshasa, like most of the countries in the African continent, prefers to do most of its business with China. The mining code introduced by the government last year has upset Western governments and mining conglomerates. The new law has hiked taxes and increased royalties. The DRC produces two-thirds of the world’s cobalt. It is said that the future of the electric car and cell phone industries depends on the DRC. The Congo has an untapped $24 trillion of rare earth mineral reserves.
After the fall of Mobutu, the dictator who had the backing of the West, the Congo witnessed one of the most brutal wars in recent history as neighbouring countries lined up on opposing sides in a bid to shape the DRC’s political and economic future. The SADC, which includes South Africa, Angola and Zimbabwe, backed the government of Laurent Kabila, the outgoing President’s father. Rwanda and Uganda were the main backers of the rebel forces who have looted vast areas of the country with impunity for years.
The horrific civil war in Rwanda had an adverse impact on the DRC. Hutu and Tutsi militias carried forward their bloodletting into eastern Congo. More than a million people were killed in the war. The Tutsi-dominated government in Rwanda, under the authoritarian Paul Kagame, had played a key role in installing Laurent Kabila in power. But the two soon fell out. The Congolese leader refused to play second fiddle to Kagame and take orders from tiny Rwanda.
The senior Kabila was assassinated in 2001 by one of his bodyguards and was succeeded by his eldest son, Joseph Kabila, who was only 29 years old at the time. He has been in power for the last 17 years. Kabila has not ruled out a rerun in the next presidential election. The Constitution only bars him from seeking a third consecutive term. Kabila, who is in his late forties, probably hopes that Tshisikedi will keep the seat warm for him for the next five years. Fayulu, meanwhile, insists that he is the “true President” elected by the people. He said that the Constitutional Court had “falsified and countered the truth of the polls to serve an unjust cause and perpetutate a regime our people hate”.
Political stability in the Congo may continue to be elusive for the foreseeable future.
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