A thaw and many threats

The militants' determination to up the ante and the government's tough response threaten to vitiate the atmosphere in Jammu and Kashmir before the visit of General Pervez Musharraf to New Delhi.

WITH Pakistan's Chief Executive General Pervez Musharraf deciding to respond positively to Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee's invitation and visit India in July, a thaw is evident on the bilateral relations front. Home Minister L.K. Advani has been optimistic about the proposed talks between the two leaders. "All the signals are positive," he told the media in the third week of June. The Indian government is particularly pleased with Musharraf's advice to the conservative Islamic clergy in Pakistan to desist from making irresponsible statements against India. Before he was admitted to the Breach Candy Hospital in Mumbai for his knee surgery, Vajpayee said that it had generated a lot of goodwill in India.

Pakistan Foreign Minister Abdul Sattar has said that there is need for both countries to get out of the "time warp" they are caught in so that they can make progress in the talks. The Indian Foreign Office is not too happy with this comment. Its spokesperson said that India was never in a time warp and had "always sought dialogue, reconciliation and normalisation of relations with Pakistan".

The government has launched a tough anti-insurgency drive, which was evident from the flushing out of militants from a mosque in the third week of June. But the drive seems to have given the hardliners in the All Parties Hurriyat Confe-rence (APHC) the upper hand. The Hurriyat leadership, which had publicly announced the suspension of its agitation programmes until the Musharraf visit was over, did an about-turn. On June 15, after Friday prayers in Srinagar, the APHC called for a Statewide agitation against "state terrorism" and the "desecration of mosques" by the security forces. The government responded by placing senior APHC leaders Abdul Ghani Bhat and Syed Ali Shah Geelani under house arrest.

The APHC had earlier called upon the militants to observe restraint in their activities against the security forces in Jammu and Kashmir. In the second week of June, the Hurriyat decided to suspend temporarily its agitation against "state terrorism". After Musharraf's visit was announced, it had called off a series of agitations it had planned in the Valley "so that the forthcoming talks on Kashmir will not be disturbed or derailed in any way". Although the Hurriyat spokesperson blamed the Special Operations Group (SOG) of the Jammu and Kashmir Police for the grenade attack on the shrine of Sheikh Noorudin Noorani at Chrar-e-Sharief on June 8, he did not call for a general strike. Four women who were among the worshippers were killed and about 60 injured in the attack. Geelani had criticised the "jehadi groups" for fostering a climate of violence in the Valley.

Recent events have shown that militant organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba are determined to up the ante as the momentum for the talks builds up. The number of attacks by the militants has increased since Musharraf's visit was announced. The jehadi groups in the Valley and in Pakistan have criticised Musharraf's decision and his request for a peaceful environment in the Valley before the high-level talks begin in July.

In May, militants who were holed up in a mosque in Sopian in southern Kashmir were allowed safe passage by the security forces after a stand-off that lasted over 20 hours. A few days after the Chrar-e-Sharief episode, six militants entered a mosque at Kokernag, 70 km from Srinagar. One SOG officer was killed when they opened fire from inside the mosque. The siege by the security forces ended when the militants were killed in the gun battle that followed a 40-hour stand-off. According to an Army spokesperson, the security forces did not violate the sanctity of the mosque. He said that sharp-shooters killed two of the militants and the rest were killed after being smoked out of the mosque. According to Army officials, four of the militants belonged to the Lashkar-e-Toiba and two to the Hizbul Mujahideen. Reports from the Valley, however, say that the security forces stormed the mosque. The Hurriyat alleged that the mosque had been destroyed and "strongly condemned the army action". Spokesmen for the militants claimed that they had entered the mosque to pray and returned the fire when they came under attack.

Diplomats fear that the government's tough stance against militants could escalate the violence in the Valley, which could vitiate the atmosphere before the talks. They say that the government could have considered giving "safe passage" to the militants.

The Army has signalled its determination to keep the militants at bay. It has reportedly sought two months to eliminate them. It appears that the government would prefer to hold talks with Pakistan from a position of strength. Advani, who has been chairing Cabinet meetings in the absence of the Prime Minister, is said to have given the green signal to the Army to storm the mosque at Kokernag. The use of mosques for terrorist activities does not seem to have gone down well with the people of the Valley. The Hurriyat has appealed to the militant groups against using mosques for their operations.

The leadership of the Hizbul Mujahideen in Jammu and Kashmir has said that it would halt its operations if India and Pakistan adopted a "realistic" approach to the Kashmir issue. Abdul Majid Dar, its "chief commander", said recently that he did not expect any breakthrough at the Vajpayee-Musharraf talks. He said that the Hizbul Mujahideen's course of action would be based on any joint statement they would issue after the talks. The Hizb wants any such statement to acknowledge the Kashmir dispute and contain an assurance that it will be solved according to the wishes of the people of Jammu and Kashmir.

Will a situation of cordial bilateral relations emerge in the near future? Islamabad had indicated that the construction of a gas pipeline from Iran to India through Pakistan would be an excellent confidence-building measure (CBM). Besides, such a pipeline would provide Pakistan with an economic incentive to normalise relations with India. Officials in New Delhi have indicated that the prospects of transporting Iranian natural gas through the Pakistan land route have dramatically improved. The preparatory work on the overland route had been put "on a fast track", they said. A detailed report on the Indo-Iranian project is expected in a few months. According to them, the Iranian government has taken up the responsibility of getting Islamabad to fulfil India's requirements in this connection, especially ensuring the security of the pipeline. For the past 10 years, Teheran has been telling New Delhi that the pipeline through Pakistan is the most feasible route and had given security guarantees. Reports from Islamabad say that India and Pakistan are likely to sign a memorandum of understanding in this regard during Musharraf's visit. Pakistan is also likely to waive import duties on more than 200 Indian products under the South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement (SAPTA).

Indian officials favour the concept of a "porous border" along the Line of Control (LoC). They have mooted the idea of a regular bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. Allowing the people of Kashmir to move across the borders freely will be a great boon for families that were affected by Partition. This will also facilitate free movement of goods.

Indian officials have not yet indicated any change of stance on the question of Siachen. Pakistan wants India to withdraw from the position it currently holds on the glacier. Both sides had almost clinched an agreement in 1992 on simultaneous withdrawal from the desolate heights which, according to many military experts, are of little strategic significance.

With Musharraf coming with an "open mind" and Vajpayee promising to get off the beaten track, there are hopes that at least a small beginning will be made to break the long-standing impasse. The Pakistani side feels that the onus is on India. "Kashmir is like a house that has been occupied illegally by a tenant. It is for the tenant to make the first move," said a Pakistani diplomat.