With dogged determination

Congress(I) president Sonia Gandhi at a rally in Anantapur district of Andhra Pradesh on March 10 as part of a three-day roadshow in the State. - INDRANIL MUKHERJEE/AFP

A survey commissioned by the Congress(I) predicts gains for the party in States where it has struck alliances, but a bleak outcome elsewhere.

THE Congress(I) is undeterred by the pre-poll surveys, which predict a bleak outcome for the party. Despite its obvious handicaps in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the two most crucial States in the Hindi belt, in a rare display of doggedness, the party has pulled out all stops to give the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a tough fight. It is obvious that the elections, apart from being a referendum on the performance of the NDA, will be interpreted as having given the popular verdict on the leadership of Sonia Gandhi. Naturally, the stakes for the Congress(I) president are higher than that for Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Although the Congress(I) has taken bold decisions, which could yield rich dividends later on, at the outset the party is at a disadvantage vis-a-vis the NDA. In Bihar, it has had to be content with the status of a junior partner in the multi-party alliance forged by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) president Laloo Prasad Yadav, which includes the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) led by Ram Vilas Paswan and the Communist Party of India (Marxist). Out of the 40 seats in the State, Laloo Prasad Yadav agreed to give the Congress(I) only four, far short of the 14 seats it demanded. As part of the seat-sharing arrangement, the LJP got eight seats and the CPI(M) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) one each, leaving the lion's share of 26 seats to the RJD. Upset with the high command's "surrender" to the RJD chief, State Congress(I) leaders kept away from the media conference held in Patna on March 27 by Laloo Prasad Yadav and Paswan to announce the alliance.

According to Congress(I) spokesman Kapil Sibal, the decision to accept the seat-sharing deal was taken in view of the larger goal of ensuring the unity of secular forces. Calling the deal a "disappointment", he said that it would ultimately pave the way for the defeat of the NDA in Bihar. Senior Congress(I) leaders point out that the party had only two seats in the dissolved Lok Sabha and since Laloo Prasad Yadav has been a vocal supporter of Sonia Gandhi, the party had little choice but to go along with him.

In Uttar Pradesh, the party's calls for an alliance have been rejected by both the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (S.P.). In order to lift the sagging prospects of the party in the State, Rahul Gandhi will be fielded from Sonia Gandhi's parliamentary constituency, Amethi, while she would shift to neighbouring Rae Bareli. The enthusiastic response Rahul Gandhi received on his first visit to Amethi on March 29 is a pointer to the support that the Nehru-Gandhi family still enjoys in the area. According to political observers, Rahul Gandhi's candidature would boost the party's prospects in three or four of the adjoining seats too. Whether the move will have any effect on the overall prospects of the party in U.P., however, remains to be seen. In any case, the party can take hope from the fact that even before Rahul Gandhi's candidature was announced, there was an upswing in the State in favour of the party, especially because of a visible shift among Muslims towards the party.

According to a survey that the Congress(I) commissioned in February to assess its overall political health in U.P., the party's vote percentage had risen to 16 per cent as against its vote share of 7 per cent in the last Assembly elections. Said a senior Congress(I) leader: "One-third of Muslims expressed the intention of voting for the Congress(I). They had not voted for the party in the last Assembly elections." According to the survey, the larger picture, however, is not quite rosy. It predicts that the Congress(I) is likely to yield ground to the Bharatiya Janata Party in its traditional strongholds such as the northeastern region, gaining little in the northern region where it continues to be weak.

Sonia Gandhi's roadshows in northern India have received good response. But roadshows being a new idea, party strategists are not sure how much of the support will be converted into votes. They are also not sure whether it was the right time for roadshows. "Obviously we can't achieve in two months what we should have striven for all these five years. But we are still trying," said a senior Congress(I) leader in the State, who is active in the party's strategic planning unit, which formulates the campaign plan..

There is room for scepticism within the party because according to the survey, which covered 160 parliamentary constituencies spread across the country and was conducted by a professional public relations agency and leaked to a select group of mediapersons, the party's prospects are not exactly upbeat. According to senior party leaders, the survey was "not quantitative but qualitative in nature". As per its findings, the party seems to be barely holding on to its present strength (it won 114 seats in 1999), while the BJP is expected to break new ground in some of the southern States and in the northeastern region.

Nevertheless, the Congress(I) has an edge in southern States such as Tamil Nadu, where it won two out of the 10 seats it contested in the last round, and Andhra Pradesh, where it won five out of 42 seats. It is likely to retain its existing seats in Kerala (eight) though the contest with the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is close, and win 18 out of 28 seats in Karnataka. In Karnataka the survey indicates that the BJP is likely to emerge as the principal Opposition party, dislodging former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda's Janata Dal (Secular). The four States, along with Pondicherry, account for a total of 130 Lok Sabha seats, of which the Congress(I) had won only 33 in 1999. This time it has already sacrificed the Pondicherry seat in order to save its alliance with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led front. Significantly, the survey indicates that all the gains likely to be made by the party would be the result of the alliances it has sewn up, with the DMK and the Left parties in Tamil Nadu, and with the Telengana Rashtra Samiti in Andhra Pradesh.

In Maharashtra, which accounts for 48 seats, the Congress(I) won 10 seats in the previous Lok Sabha elections although it did not enter into an alliance with the NCP. This time, the survey predicts, the Congress(I)-NCP alliance is likely to offset the anti-incumbency factor and steal a march on the BJP-Shiv Sena combine.

In West Bengal and Orissa, which together account for 63 seats, the party is expected to maintain the status quo, retaining three in the former and two in the latter. The survey rules out any anti-incumbency factor at work in both the States. In Assam and Jharkhand, alliances, the survey says, will make or break electoral fortunes. The Congress(I) is likely to suffer a setback in Assam, where it won 10 of the 14 seats last time, if the BJP allies with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). In Jharkhand, the Congress(I)-Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) alliance is likely to race ahead of the BJP. In Gujarat, an anti-incumbency factor is present but is not likely to raise the party's present tally, which is a dismal six out of 26 seats. In Punjab, where the Congress(I) has eight seats, the anti-incumbency factor could cost the party dearly.

In Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the situation that prevailed at the time of the Assembly elections in December 2003 remains unchanged, with the BJP remaining ahead. In fact the Congress(I) might find it difficult to save its tally of 20 out of a total of 65 seats. In Haryana, where the Congress(I) has no seat at present, the survey shows a swing in favour of the party. "The party will really have to try very hard to lose in Haryana," said a senior leader. In numerically crucial Bihar, the survey indicates that while the party might make some gains, thanks to its alliance with the RJD and the LJP, the BJP is likely to gain at the cost of the Janata Dal (United). According to the survey, the NDA has an edge over its rivals because of the Vajpayee factor and the Central government's achievements, especially better roads, and successes in matters of foreign policy. Although unemployment and poor performance in agriculture are seen as major failures of the NDA government, these seem inadequate to hold the NDA down. "Their biggest asset is having Vajpayee as their leader. Minus Vajpayee, the voters' intention of voting for the NDA goes down by half," said a party leader.

Notwithstanding the feedback, the party hopes to recover lost ground by aggressively exposing the NDA government's failures and projecting a new image of Sonia Gandhi through her roadshows. "The idea is to expose the NDA and show people that Sonia Gandhi is not what she is made out to be by the NDA," said a senior leader. That is why the party released a 55-page "charge-sheet" against the NDA government, called "Vajpayee Government: A Saga of Sins, Scams and Shame". The charge-sheet has an entire section listing the various scams that have come to light on matters relating to defence - Tehelka, killer MiGs, misuse of the Kargil cess, irregularities made in the purchase of equipment for the Kargil war and so on. Among other scams, the ones relating to UTI and Cyberspace Infosys Ltd., in which Vajpayee's foster son-in-law Ranjan Bhattacharya is named, figure prominently. Others that are listed include the petrol pump and gas agency allotment scams, the Judev expose, the HUDCO scam involving former Urban Development Minister Ananth Kumar, the plot allotment scam, and the medical procurement scam. Another section highlighting the failures of the NDA government lists issues such as unemployment, loot of public sector undertakings, farmers' suicides, communalisation of education, dismal state of education and health, and laxity on matters of national security. An entire section has been devoted to Vajpayee's shifting stands on various issues. Called "Vajpayee flip-flop", it lists issues such as Ayodhya, corruption, communal strife and employment. The party intends to make the booklet available to every household in the country and publicise it through advertisement campaigns in the media, through documentaries, posters and so on.

These talking points form the major portion of the party's manifesto as well. In the manifesto, however, the party has for the first time talked categorically about continuing with economic reforms, but simultaneously ensuring "local-level economic and social transformation" and carrying the growth into agricultural and industrial sectors. The manifesto promises "legal guarantee for 100 days of employment to every rural household" and "selective privatisation," which would ensure that disinvestment revenue is used for social development. The party plans to go ahead vigorously with Sonia Gandhi's "direct mass contact" programme in various States. She has already covered U.P., Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Andhra Pradesh, and intends to visit the remaining States in the days to come.

Although Sonia Gandhi's roadshows have met with enthusiastic response from the people, her initiative is not backed by the rest of the party organisation. "Once she has left a State, the party there should take it forward. Other leaders should keep in touch with the people, but sadly enough that is not happening. The result being, by the time elections come, her impact may fade away," a senior party leader in Lucknow said. According to him, there are elements within the party who do not like to see Sonia Gandhi emerge stronger. As a result there are even subtle attempts at sabotaging the roadshows, he said. "She has proved herself to be a leader, but without a party," remarked a senior party functionary at the Congress(I) headquarters in New Delhi. Given the situation, if the party increases its tally or even manages to save its seats, the credit would go entirely to Sonia Gandhi. If that is not the case, she could face troubled times ahead.