Clear choice

Pratibha Patil, the United Progressive Alliance's candidate for the presidential election, with UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi at the latter's residence in New Delhi on June 16.-

The possibility of the election of Pratibha Patil, the nominee of the Congress and the Left, as the 13th President is proving historic.

THE 13th presidential election, on July 18, is expected to conclude with a historic verdict promoting, for the first time, a woman to the highest constitutional office in the country. But before that would happen, the political dimensions of the electoral process have reached incomparable proportions on several counts. To start with, the run-up to the election has witnessed one of the most rancorous campaigns in the history of presidential polls in the country. Allegations of murder, bank scams and financial irregularities as well as controversies over the interpretation of customs have formed part of this campaign. And at the centre of it is Pratibha Patil, the presidential nominee of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the Left parties.

Even as the issues raised against Pratibha Patil captured more and more media space with each passing day, the campaign, being advanced essentially by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the principal Opposition force, was perceived as having an element that seeks to change the traditional character of the President's office. That the campaigners appealed to members of the electoral college to transcend their fundamental political affiliations and cross-vote for its candidate, Vice-President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, has been interpreted as an effort to create a rival centre of power to the Union government at the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

The incumbent President, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, contributed to the confusion and commotion in the preparatory stages of the election by expressing readiness to bid for another five-year term if there was "certainty" of his victory. Kalam's statement was in response to a request from the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA), the newly formed combination of eight regional parties, including the Samajwadi Party (S.P.), the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). This stance of the "People's President" shocked even his admirers because it was clear even before the election process started that the ruling UPA and the Left would not support his candidature. The President, however, did not persist with his offer and virtually announced his withdrawal from the election scene two days after he expressed his readiness to contest.

The run-up to the poll also witnessed regionalism being brought forward as one of the deciding factors in a presidential election. It was the Shiv Sena, the Maharashtra-based constituent of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) which advocated this line while deciding to support Pratibha Patil. Its leadership, including party chief Bal Thackeray and No.2 in the party Udhav Thackeray, made it clear that they were motivated by regionalism and provincial considerations in moving away from the NDA's common candidate, Shekhawat. The Shiv Sena's decision has upset the BJP and, by all indications, the 22-year-old alliance between the two parties is set to collapse. But the Sena seems unfazed. "The elevation of Pratibha Patil to the President's position is indeed a matter of Marathi pride and, at this moment, this is more important to us," Udhav Thackeray said. The BJP criticised its alliance partner's stand as it strengthened the anti-national and anti-Hindutva forces.

If one were to go by a calculation of votes that various parties have in the electoral college, the Shiv Sena's decision has tilted the scales decidedly in favour of Pratibha Patil. In the electoral college, which has a total of 10,98,882 votes, the Shiv Sena has 22,178 votes. A broad calculation is that the components of the UPA and the Left parties put together have 5.13 lakh votes; the NDA has the strength of over 3.54 lakh votes and the UNPA has about 1.05 lakh votes. The Shiv Sena's decision takes away about 20,000 votes from the NDA's basket and adds them to the UPA-Left combine's. Before the Shiv Sena switched sides, the UPA roped in the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which came to power recently in Uttar Pradesh with a massive vote. The BSP has 62,862 votes. UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi announced Pratibha Patil's candidature on June 14, two days after eliciting an assurance of "unconditional support" from Mayawati to the alliance's nominee.

The UPA leadership was engaged in a series of meetings with the Left parties right from the last week of May to agree on a name. The Left's consistent position throughout the talks was that it would agree on the name of a political personality (as opposed to apolitical figures such as Abdul Kalam) who did not compromise on secularism and had a sound understanding of national issues and constitutional matters. Many names, ranging from Home Minister Shivraj Patil to External Affairs Minister Pranab Kumar Mukherjee to veteran Kashmir leader Karan Singh, were suggested by the Congress.

While the Left did agree on Pranab Mukherjee's nomination, the Congress backtracked as Sonia Gandhi apparently thought that the External Affairs Minister was indispensable to the government. The names of Shivraj Patil and Karan Singh were not acceptable to the Left. By all indications, the compromise reached with the Left parties ultimately inspired the UPA leadership to come up with some "out of the box thinking" and it was this that led to the "sudden and unexpected" candidature of Pratibha Patil.

Initial responses to Pratibha Patil's candidature were overwhelmingly appreciative. The fact that her candidature has opened up the possibility of a woman becoming the President for the first time in the six decades of independent India was hailed by a large number of social and women's organisations. However, a number of developments in the following days tempered this sense of elation. These included Pratibha Patil's own statements of a controversial nature and a series of exposes and allegations that came up against her relatives, including her brother.

This context, undoubtedly, gave a fillip to some fresh initiatives from the NDA and the UNPA. It was the UNPA that first took centre stage with an offensive against Pratibha Patil's candidature. Describing her nomination as a "joke played on the nation by Sonia Gandhi", AIADMK leader Jayalalithaa and other UNPA leaders proposed a second term for Kalam. A number of UNPA leaders told Frontline that the "Third Front" had only meant it as a token gesture that would create a few ripples on the election scene. So sure were the UNPA leaders about Kalam's unwillingness to contest that Jayalalithaa, who apparently mooted the proposal to give a second term to a fellow Tamilian, did not attend the meeting the other alliance leaders had with the President.

Naturally, Kalam's response to the UNPA's plea to consider a second term surprised its leadership. The President, who had made it clear to a number of NDA leaders only a few months ago that he would present himself as a candidate only if there was a consensus among all parties, qualified it by saying that "I can accept a second term of presidency provided there is certainty about this". He added that he was willing to wait for a few days for this certainty to emerge.

Although it was not stated in so many words, it was clear that Kalam's insistence on "certainty" meant only a majority in the electoral college and not a unanimous election. Clearly, Kalam's reaction gave the UNPA leadership, as well as the NDA, an opportunity to corner the UPA. The NDA also got into the act and said it was ready to withdraw Shekhawat's candidature if the UPA too agreed on Kalam's candidature.

The debate went on for a couple of days, but the UPA and the Left parties refused to budge from their position. That settled the issue and Kalam withdrew, stating, he did not want to play politics.

Following the failure of its "second term for Kalam" mission, the UNPA also failed to agree on a common agenda for the election. It was left to individual parties to take their own position in the presidential election. This has put the UNPA constituents, especially the S.P. and the TDP, in a quandary. They cannot support Pratibha Patil because the alliance had described her as a "joke". They cannot accept Shekhawat because of his strong Sangh Parivar background; the minority Muslim vote is crucial to both parties and hence they cannot be seen as siding with a leader with a pronounced Hindutva orientation. Indications are that both parties would abstain from the election. The AIADMK and the AGP may be able to accept Shekhawat's candidature for his "impartial track record as Vice-President and Chairman of the Rajya Sabha".

In terms of votes, the S.P. and the TDP constitute a sizable chunk with 58,403 and 14,744 respectively. The AIADMK has 19,280 and the AGP has 4,908 votes. This means that even a shift of a section of the UNPA vote would not dramatically alter the situation. However, the BJP, as well as sections of the NDA that are firmly with the BJP, have some other calculations.

Shekhawat, reportedly, has wide-ranging personal contacts across parties and as a veteran politician who has held important positions such as Chief Minister, Union Cabinet Minister and Vice-President, he has been of help to people from different walks of life. A senior BJP leader told Frontline: "Shekhawatji has a lot of personal IOUs to encash."

Moreover, the fact that independent Members of the Legislative Assembly and Members of Parliament account for 72,000 votes is seen as a positive factor by the NDA. According to a senior BJP leader from Uttar Pradesh, if the NDA is able to garner these independent votes en bloc and get 45 to 50 MPs belonging to the UPA to cross-vote, the UPA's historic initiative could well be upset. Since, the presidential poll is conducted through a system of secret ballot and also because party whips are not operative in this election, members can resort to "conscience voting".

Former External Affairs Minister K. Natwar Singh provides a clear illustration of the potential of the NDA game plan. He is technically a Congress member of the Rajya Sabha and is obviously counted among UPA voters. But Natwar Singh was present for the filing of Shekhawat's nomination papers and has made it clear that he and his supporters (there are a few of his followers among MLAs in Rajasthan) would back Shekhawat. Natwar Singh campaigned for the S.P. in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, but since he has not joined the party he is not bound by the party's principles.

Similarly, two of the BSP's Lok Sabha members, Ramakant Yadav and Umakant Yadav, have fallen out with the party and are supporting the S.P. They could adopt a pro-Shekhawat posture. On the other side, the S.P.'s Lok Sabha member, Shafiq-ur-Rehman Barq, is unhappy with the party leadership and has moved closer to the Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which has declared its support to Pratibha Patil.

The Congress has understood this situation and sought to control the damage by moving for Natwar Singh's disqualification from the Rajya Sabha. As the Chairman of the Rajya Sabha, Shekhawat would have to give the verdict on the plea. Whatever the verdict, there is little doubt that the BJP and sections of the NDA are advancing the cross-vote game plan.

The NDA game has brought to the fore the question whether the ruling combine has a right to get its "man" elevated to Rashtrapati Bhavan. There is an argument that this right "is central to the very architecture of power envisaged in the Constitution". The Constitution does not envisage the Rashtrapati Bhavan as a rival centre of power, not even a rival source of influence. If an Opposition party or a combination of parties can ensure the victory of someone other than the one favoured by the ruling combine, then it would amount to a no-confidence vote against the government.

The NDA, on its part, argues that there is no such right as has been proved in the 1969 presidential poll when the Congress leader and Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi, asked her party voters to go for conscience voting. This resulted in the defeat of the party's "official" candidate, Neelam Sanjiva Reddy, and the victory of the "rebel" candidate, V.V. Giri. "There is the precedence of 1969," argue BJP leaders, "and in any case Shekhawat would make a much superior President than Pratibha Patil."

The NDA leadership knows that it does not have the numbers to get Shekhawat elected, but by turning the presidential poll into a political battle it has created some discomfiture for the UPA. And the allegations against Pratibha Patil and some of her misplaced pronouncements have only added to the discomfiture, although the lady from Maharashtra is expected to scale the victory post.