`We are close to becoming a stable population'

Interview with Jayant Kumar Banthia, Registrar-General of India and Census Commissioner.

One of the singular aspects revealed in Census 2001 - both in the provisional results and in the final results released in July 2004 - is the declining child sex ratio. Although the sex ratio for the total population showed a marginal improvement, the deterioration in the juvenile sex ratio in the past decade has seized the attention of demographers, social scientists, gender specialists and women's movements. Meanwhile, the United Progressive Alliance government's commitment to population stabilisation, as reiterated in its Common Minimum Programme, has raised apprehensions about its impact on the survival of the girl child. Jayant Kumar Banthia, Registrar-General of India and Census Commissioner, spoke to T.K. Rajalakshmi on some of the findings in Census 2001. Excerpts from the interview:

Census 2001 has been given the final shape. What are the main findings after the compilation of the final results?

One of the main findings is that population growth, for the first time since Independence, has shown major signs of decline. In all the decades up to 1991, we were growing faster and faster, almost touching an annual rate of growth of 2.2 per cent. For the first time, in 2001, it came down to 1.93 per cent. The current growth rate, according to SRS data, would be 1.68 [per cent] or so. This is a positive sign. The percentage decadal growth of the country has declined from 23.9 per cent during 1981-991 to 21.5 [per cent] during 1991-2001. Thus there is a fall in its decadal growth rate by 2.3 percentage points, which is the sharpest decline since Independence. The implication of this is that fertility decline has set in across the country, especially in the Hindi-speaking belt. It is a little slow in northern India as a whole but it is settled. It is an irreversible process; we can say that we are getting close to becoming a stable population.

Secondly, the overall population sex ratio has improved. Maybe if looked at in isolation, it is nothing extraordinary. This means that given a chance, women have a high survival rate. The sad part of the story is that the life expectancy of women in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar is still lower than that of men. The bad news in the provisional results was a sharp decline in the child sex ratio. The final results also show the same. In 1991, only one district had a child sex ratio below 850. This was Salem [in Tamil Nadu]. But in 2001, we find the number of districts in the past 10 years has gone up to 49. Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Gujarat and the plains of Himachal Pradesh are clearly showing bad signs. In the provisional results, Rajasthan could have claimed that its situation was marginally better but now we find the district of Ganganagar also showing similar trends as observed in Haryana and Punjab. This should ring alarm bells. In Maharashtra, the situation is bad from Jalgaon to Kolhapur. Seven States are now showing clearly that the girl child is not safe.

Salem has improved but in districts around it, such as Dharmapuri, things have worsened. We did a further analysis of the child sex ratio among the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. This is also something new. We found it was much better as compared to the general population. But in Punjab and Haryana the girl child is uniformly discriminated against. A further analysis of wards within cities like Faridabad (Haryana), Delhi and Agra (Uttar Pradesh) also shows a uniform deterioration of the sex ratio.

Another first in Census 2001 is that female literacy has improved tremendously. The actual number of illiterates has declined sharply. But the decline among women is much less compared to that among men.

It is said that the demographic transition has already begun. Fertility rates are on the decline and there is no need for an aggressive population stabilisation programme.

Population stabilisation is important. A population of a billion is no joke. It is a scenario where the number of births is equal to the number of deaths. We are adding some 11,000 families every day. There are around two crore births every year as compared to one crore deaths. The population is unlikely to stabilise below 135 crores. We cannot step up deaths. We are in a population momentum and this takes the numbers further and further. But we are a democratic set-up, and we have to respect the people's choice.

Given the adverse child sex ratio, what are the ramifications for the girl child if population stabilisation programmes are put in place? Most of the programmes are targeted at women and it is feared that this will only worsen the sex ratio further.

That is the sad part. The problem starts with the universalisation of marriage. Once married, a person has to produce a child. And then there is the added pressure for a male child. Now we have a situation where States that are deficit in women are bringing in women from other States and often it is by foul means. This can lead to social crimes. There is this example of Iran that I would like to mention. Despite being an Islamic nation, the rate of fertility [there] came down very fast. No coercive methods were used, neither was a policy of delayed marriages followed. What they did was to improve the quality of services, especially primary health care for women as well as ante-and post-natal care. In the late 1990s, there were more women in [Iranian] universities than men.

Precisely. It is argued that if development indices and standards of living improve, family sizes would automatically shrink. A lot of development indicators have also emerged from Census 2001, including the fact that more than three out of every five households do not have access to latrines.

Yes. This is true. Nearly 45 per cent of India's households do not have access to electricity. That is terrible. If parents want to teach their children beyond 6 p.m., they will be unable to do so. For almost 12-14 hours, if a typical Indian household has to be in darkness, it is definitely a problem. About 65 per cent of households use firewood to cook food, which means that women inhale the fumes, which cause a host of respiratory problems. We are still to make the transition from basic housing to conventional housing. A conventional household would include a room, electricity, bathroom, kitchen, latrine and drinking water - in the premises. Not more than 45 per cent of the households fall in this category and most of them are concentrated in the urban areas.

It is learnt that the Census office is compiling data on sex ratio at birth. Would this reveal more details about the child sex ratio and the prevalent discrimination?

We decided that we could not wait for the next Census to tell the nation what has happened to the girl child and our women. The best way was to monitor it at birth. Unfortunately, it is still not good news. Things do not seem to be improving in Gujarat, Haryana and Punjab, although the PNDT [pre-natal diagnostic techniques] Act has been enforced much more vigorously in the past three to four years - especially in Haryana. Despite some people becoming more proactive, there are far too many people who are unable to accept the girl child graciously.