Uttar Pradesh byelections a litmus test for opposition parties

The December 5 byelections are significant because of what the results portend for the opposition.

SP President Akhilesh Yadav with Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohia) leader Shivpal Singh Yadav during a campaign for the Mainpuri Lok Sabha byelection on November 20. | Photo Credit: PTI

With the 2024 general election on the horizon, political parties are warming up for the great fight by campaigning with gusto for the December 5 byelections in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP returned to power in the State in 2022 despite the prognosis that the farmers’ agitation of 2021 would alienate the Jats—an important vote base concentrated in the western part of the State that aligns with Haryana.

The byelections are being held in Mainpuri (Lok Sabha seat), and Khatauli and Rampur (Assembly seats). The first seat fell vacant with the death of the Samajwadi Party (SP) patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav on October 10, and in Khatauli BJP MLA Vikram Singh Saini had to resign following his conviction by a trial court in the Muzaffarnagar riots case. The Rampur election was necessitated by the conviction of SP MLA Azam Khan on October 28 in a 2019 hate speech case. The results will be declared on December 8.

The BJP retained the Gola Gokarannath Assembly seat in Lakhimpur Kheri district, the byelection to which was held on November 3. The death of the sitting BJP MLA, Arvind Giri, necessitated the election. It was a direct contest between the BJP and the SP, but the sympathy votes that the latter hoped to get on account of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s death did not materialise. Aman Giri, the former MLA’s son, defeated Vinay Tiwari by more than 30,000 votes.

Neither the Bahujan Samaj Party nor the Congress has fielded any candidates for the three poll-bound seats, making the election a straight fight again between the BJP and the SP. Since 1989, the Congress has lost nine Assembly elections.

Legacy matters

For the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, the SP has fielded party chief Akhilesh Yadav’s wife, Dimple Yadav. Even though she has lost Lok Sabha byelections twice, in 2009 and 2019, SP leaders are confident of her win this time in Mulayam Singh Yadav’s constituency.

Her opponent is Raghuram Singh Shakya, with the BJP continuing the trend of fielding Shakyas, one of the dominant communities in Mainpuri. Counted among the backward castes, the Shakyas are next only to Yadavs in the constituency. Recently, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav appointed former MLA Alok Shakya, son of the former SP MLA Ram Avtar Shakya, as the new district president of Mainpuri.

Mainpuri has remained with the SP for nearly two decades now. The BJP did not win the seat even in the aftermath of the Babri Masjid demolition. Like Rampur, it is dominated by Yadav and Muslim voters, the SP’s support base. According to sources, the Congress has decided not to contest in honour of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s legacy.

In this year’s Assembly election, the SP failed to stop the BJP’s victory for a second consecutive term despite several political experiments and favourable factors. In June, the BJP also won the byelections in the SP bastions of Rampur and Azamgarh.

BJP’s village

However, winning the Khatauli seat will be a challenge for the BJP. The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) candidate here is Madan Bhaiya, a well-known personality from Ghaziabad (west UP) who is hailed as a Robin Hood figure by the people. The BJP candidate is Vikram Saini’s wife, Rajkumari Saini. Vikram Saini helped the BJP win this seat twice, in 2017 and 2022.

Rajkumari Saini of BJP campaigns in Khatauli’s Bhaleri village on November 21. | Photo Credit: Ismat Ara

Vikram Saini held several outreach programmes in his former seat: Khatauli’s Bhaleri village, dominated by the Saini and Prajapati communities, considered to be traditional BJP voters, is referred to as “BJP ka gaon” (BJP’s village). Out on bail now, Saini announced at a campaign for his wife on November 21 that his conviction in the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots case by a lower court was unfair to the people of the constituency who had elected him for five years.

He referred to SP candidate Madan Bhaiya as a “bahubali” (strongman) and “outsider”, who he alleged could never solve the problems of the people. The BJP has repeatedly used the “outsider” tag for Madan Bhaiya in Khatauli.

Vikram Saini spoke throughout the campaign while his wife remained silent. He claimed that the byelection is about mahila shakti (women’s empowerment), at which someone from the audience quipped, “Kaam toh aap hi karwaoge” (The work will be ultimately done by you), and he smiled.

This seat has never had a female MLA, pointing to the dismal participation of women in the politics of the region. Speaking to Frontline, Saini said he was confident that his wife would win the election.

The general mood was slightly different. Rishi Bal Singh, a villager from the Thakur community, said, “While Saini has installed three handpumps in Kawal village, from where he hails, the issue of water supply in Bhaleri, which is just a few kilometres away, remains unresolved.” Others complained of bad roads that have not seen repairs in a long time. But Singh added, “While Saini has not done much work, he will still get votes because of his party.”

In Khatauli, the Jat and Gujjar votes are likely to split in equal measure between the BJP and the RLD, while the Muslim vote is likely to go to the RLD. Caste groups such as Sainis, Kashyaps, Brahmins and Thakurs usually vote for the BJP. Since the BSP is not in the fray, the Dalit vote is also likely to shift towards the BJP. But RLD chief Chaudhary Jayant Singh is campaigning in full steam, holding nukkad sabhayein (street-corner meetings) in villages to connect with voters.

Rampur on the radar

In Rampur Sadar, the candidate selection by the SP has disappointed many. Someone from the family of senior leader Azam Khan, who is a record 10-time winner from the constituency, was expected to be the candidate, but the final nomination papers were filed by Asim Raza Khan. He is up against the BJP’s Akash Saxena, son of former Minister Shiv Bahadur Saxena.

Except in 1996, Azam Khan has won all other Assembly elections in Rampur since 1980. Considered close to Azam Khan, Asim Raza Khan had lost the Lok Sabha byelection to BJP’s Ghanshyam Lodhi in June 2022. Lodhi is an OBC leader and former aide of Azam Khan.

SP leader Azam Khan being welcomed by supporters after his release from Sitapur Jail in Rampur in May 2022. | Photo Credit: PTI

In the 2022 Assembly election, Khan proved his political clout once again when, despite legal challenges, he won from jail, defeating Saxena by nearly 55,000 votes. With Khan out of the picture now, the BJP has upped the ante in a fresh bid to make an impact in the Muslim-majority constituency through outreach programmes for pasmanda (backward) Muslims.

Khan suffered a huge setback when his confidant and media in-charge Fasahat Ali Khan Shanu switched to the BJP on November 21.

According to Sharat Pradhan, a political analyst and journalist based in Lucknow, the byelections are crucial for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. “The BJP managed to win more than 60 per cent of the 126 seats in western UP in the 2022 Assembly election despite the focus of the SP-RLD alliance on the region. Western UP is especially important because of the riots of 2013, which had split the Jats and Muslims. Now the BJP wants to capture the majority of the Jat vote,” he said. “The opposition will be doomed in 2024 if they are unable to bring the BJP’s numbers down,” he added.

Pawan Sharma, professor of Political Science at Chaudhary Charan Singh University (formerly Meerut University), believes that even if Dimple Yadav wins, she will not be able to live up to the legacy of Mulayam Singh Yadav, which will ultimately decimate the SP in the district.

He believes that in Khatauli and Rampur, the “development-focussed approach” of the BJP has lured voters into its fold. “The issues during the Assembly election in March were women’s security, law and order, and development. They are the same now,” he said.

The Crux

• Byelections are being held in Uttar Pradesh’s Mainpuri (Lok Sabha seat), and Khatauli and Rampur (Assembly seats) on December 5.
• Neither the Bahujan Samaj Party nor the Congress has fielded any candidates for the three poll-bound seats, making the election a straight fight again between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party.
• For the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, the SP has fielded party chief Akhilesh Yadav’s wife, Dimple Yadav, who is expected to bring sympathy votes to the seat left vacant by the demise of the party patriarch, Mulayam Singh Yadav.
• Winning the Khatauli seat will be a challenge for the BJP. The BJP candidate is Vikram Saini’s wife, Rajkumari Saini. Vikram Saini helped the BJP win this seat twice, in 2017 and 2022. This seat has never had a female MLA, pointing to the dismal participation of women in the politics of the region.
• In Rampur Sadar, the candidate selection by the SP has disappointed many. Someone from the family of senior leader Azam Khan, who is a record 10-time winner from the constituency, was expected to be the candidate, but the final nomination papers were filed by Asim Raza Khan.