A fractured verdict in Manipur

CSDS Team

THE results in Manipur showed all the attributes that have characterised electoral politics in the State since it attained statehood in 1972: high turnout, political fragmentation, and hung Assem-blies. Since 1972, no party has secured an absolute majori ty in the State. This year the parties took this into consideration and formed big, unwieldy, alliances. The Congress(I) formed the Secular Democratic Front with the Manipur People's Party (MPP), one of its rivals in northeastern India, and the Communist Party of India (CPI). The ruling Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP), a three-year-old breakaway group of the Congress(I) and currently an ally of the Bharatiya Janata Party at the Centre, formed the United Front (U.F.) with the Federal Party of Manipur (FPM). The BJP failed to arrive at an understanding with the MSCP and formed the Manipur Democratic Alliance (MDA) in combination with the Janata Dal (United). P.A. Sangma's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) decided to go it alone.

No party or alliance secured a clear majority. The U.F. came close but fell short. The small Assembly has members of at least 11 parties, providing ample scope for political permutations and combinations.

The MSCP established that it was the authentic heir to the Congress legacy. It fared well in the valley and also picked up five hill seats, to establish itself as an all-Manipur party.

The Congress(I) and its allies suffered a setback. The Congress(I) tally came down from 22 to 10. The party suffered major reverses in the valley. The MPP's tally came down from 18 to four seats. For the first time the CPI will not have any presence in t he Assembly. The SDF was a loose front and it seems unlikely that it will survive such a disastrous show.

If there is another winner in Manipur besides the MSCP, it is the BJP. Its tally of six seats in an Assembly of 60 is its best ever performance in the hill States of northeastern India. Five of these seats came from the Meiti-dominated areas in the valle y, which have historical connections with Vaishnavaite Hinduism; the remaining seat came from the tribal-dominated hills. Being in power at the Centre has definite advantages in the local politics of the small States in northeastern India.