Protests and threats

Violent agitations continue in Manipur against the extension of the ceasefire agreement between the Central government and the NSCN (I-M) to all Naga-inhabited areas, and this delays the process of formation of a popular government in the State.

WITH most of Manipur's legislators taking shelter in Delhi fearing attacks by angry student and youth groups protesting against the agreement between the Union government and the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isaac-Muivah) over the extension of ceasefire, the process of formation of a new government in the State, now under President's Rule, has been stalled. President's Rule was clamped on the State when the coalition government led by the Samata Party's Radhabinod Koijam collapsed in early June. The State Assembly was, however, kept in suspended animation, leaving scope for political parties to form a new government.

None of the parties, including the Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP), the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Samata Party, is willing to take the risk of forming a new government at the moment, although these three parties vied with one another earlier to capitalise on the fall of the Koijam government. In a spontaneous upsurge of anger against the agreement on the extension of the ceasefire to the Naga-inhabited areas in Manipur, Meiteis (Manipuris) targeted politicians belonging to all parties. Meiteis are angry that the politicians in the State were busy quarrelling among themselves and plotting for power, instead of seeking to protect the State's integrity. The legislators apprehend a fresh outbreak of violence similar to the one on June 18, when riots broke out in Manipur within hours of the announcement of the ceasefire agreement in Bangkok. Fourteen persons were killed in a police firing on the protesters.

The protesters were opposed to the extension of the ceasefire to the Naga-inhabited regions in the States neighbouring Nagaland - Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. Considering the extension of the ceasefire as a major victory for the NSCN(I-M) in its struggle to achieve the goal of a "Greater Nagaland" comprising the Naga-dominated areas in all the northeastern States, angry Meiteis torched the Assembly building, the Chief Minister's office, the Assembly Speaker's residence and the bungalows of legislators in Imphal.

The situation in Manipur is still not normal. Not satisfied with the Centre's assurance that the ceasefire extension agreement will be reviewed in its entirety, Manipuris are continuing with bandhs and demonstrations, defying prohibitory orders. Many areas, especially in the Imphal valley and in the hilly regions, more particularly in the Naga-inhabited districts of Ukhrul, Senapati and Chandel bordering Nagaland, curfew is still on. The tension is heightened by the fact that the Nagas living in these areas have hoisted the NSCN(I-M) flag to assert their separate identity. Clashes among Nagas, Meiteis and Manipuri Kukis have been reported from the Naga-inhabited areas. All Members of Parliament and Members of the Legislative Assembly from Manipur, 24 of them belonging to the BJP, have threatened to resign from Parliament and the Assembly if the extension of the ceasefire beyond the Nagaland border was not withdrawn by July 31. Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi and his Arunachal Pradesh counterpart Mukut Mithi also lodged strong protests with the Centre opposing the extension of ceasefire to areas in their States.

The Union government, which was initially reluctant to reconsider its new agreement with the NSCN(I-M), has now agreed to do that. After a two-hour meeting in Delhi on July 8 with leaders representing all political parties in Manipur, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee declared: "We shall review the ceasefire agreement including the words, 'without territorial limits' incorporated in the agreement, so as to ensure that all doubts about preserving the integrity of Manipur and the other States in the north-east region are removed." The legislators from Manipur were reportedly happy with the outcome of their talks with the Prime Minister and Union Home Minister L.K. Advani.

The Union government later decided that its interlocutor, former Union Home Secretary K. Padmanabhaiah, will meet NSCN(I-M) general secretary Thuingaleng Muivah shortly to "review" the "bilateral" ceasefire agreement. The Centre has reportedly assured the Manipur legislators that it will complete the review before July end. The year-long ceasefire will expire on July 31. In his report submitted to the Prime Minister after a three-day visit to Manipur, Union Minister of State for Home I.D. Swami observed that the situation in Manipur was so alarming that the review of the agreement was necessary in order to bring peace in the northeastern region.

Padmanabhaiah is expected to meet Muivah in Amsterdam with a request that he withdraw his demand for the extension of the ceasefire beyond Nagaland. Muivah, who is facing trial in Bangkok on two separate charges of entering Thailand by using forged travel documents and attempting to flee the country using a fake passport, is reported to have been provided an Indian passport by the Government of India so that he could leave Thailand with a genuine travel document and meet Padmanabhaiah in Amsterdam. Muivah is currently on bail on condition that he should not leave Thailand until the trial is over. Given the fact that Muivah maintains that "wherever Nagas live is Nagaland", the Vajpayee government is not sure how the leader of the outlawed Naga organisation would respond to Delhi's request. It will be difficult for Vajpayee to go back on the accord.

According to reliable sources, Vajpayee himself had assured Muivah way back on September 30, 1998 that there would be a territorial extension of the ceasefire. Muivah met Vajpayee in a hotel in Paris where the latter stayed during his tour of Western Europe. The meeting was arranged by the then Government of India interlocutor Swaraj Kaushal. But, on his return from Paris Vajpayee went back on his word, annoying Kaushal who had held several rounds of talks with Muivah in Bangkok, Zurich, Amsterdam and Paris. After the Paris talks, Padmanabhaiah replaced Kaushal as the interlocutor.

Meanwhile, Advani, after a meeting of the consultative committee of the Ministry of Home Affairs on July 6, indicated that Parliament may adopt a resolution in its coming session to freeze the territorial borders of the northeastern States. This is likely to set at rest the apprehensions of the people of Manipur and Assam that an extension of the ceasefire with the Nagas in terms of territory would be a step in the direction of conceding the NSCN(I-M)'s demand for a "Greater Nagaland" with parts of Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh included in it.

With most of the legislators unwilling to return from Delhi in the near future, Manipur is virtually under the control of insurgent outfits. Organisations such as the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), the People's Revolutionary Party of Kanglaeipak (PREPAK), the Kanglaeipak Communist Party (KCP) and the Manipur People Front (MPF) have come into the open and they lead the agitation. Taking advantage of the public mood, they have reportedly intimidated the legislators into leaving the State.

Apart from these insurgent groups dominated by Meiteis, Kukis living in the Naga-dominated areas of Manipur have been actively opposing the ceasefire extension.

The militant All Manipur Students Union (AMSU), which spearheads the anti-truce movement, has threatened to raise the demand for the secession of Manipur from India if the Centre does not revoke the ceasefire extension agreement by July 31. AMSU has warned that it will demand a reversion to Manipur's pre-merger status if the deadline is not met. The threat was issued by AMSU leader Sougaism Rakesh shortly after the leaders of the All Assam Students Union (AASU) released a statement demanding the immediate withdrawal of the agreement. AASU said it would snap its ties with AMSU if the latter launched a secessionist movement. Both AASU and AMSU belong to the North-east Students Organisation (NSO), an umbrella organisation of regional student forums.

The Centre's move to review the ceasefire agreement has evoked sharp reactions from political parties and important organisations in Nagaland. Taking strong exception to the move, the Nagaland People's Council (NPC), a regional political party, said that it would "wait and see how the extension of ceasefire with the NSCN(I-M) is reviewed." Party president Huska Sumi said, "Any change in the hard-bargained ceasefire accord, covering all Naga-inhabited areas of the northeast, would only jeopardise the ongoing peace initiative." The Naga People's Movement for Human Rights (NPMHR), a leading non-governmental organisation (NGO), expressed the apprehension that "any backtracking from the truce might derail the entire peace process".

Bitter rivals in every sense, the NSCN(I-M) and the Khaplang faction of the NSCN have, however, struck a rare note of unanimity on the issue of carving out a "Greater Nagaland".