A peace initiative

Published : Dec 22, 2002 00:00 IST

The Government of India reacts with caution to an offer of dialogue from the outlawed and beleaguered United Liberation Front of Asom.

FOR the first time since it was outlawed in 1990, the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) has shown some interest in entering into a process of dialogue with the Centre. The ULFA offer came from its chairman Arabindo Rajkhowa on November 27, 2001, on the 11th anniversary of the ban on the extremist organisation. Rajkhowa's statement, issued possibly from his hideout in Bhutan, said that ULFA was willing to sit down for talks, "provided the Indian government is ready to accept our preconditions." In a statement faxed to newspapers in Assam, he said, "A meaningful dialogue is the only way to a peaceful solution of the Indo-Asom conflict."

Although Rajkhowa did not spell out ULFA's preconditions for the dialogue, it is apparent that the organisation is sticking to its three main demands: that Assam's sovereignty should be the subject of discussion; that the talks should be held in a third country; and that they should be held under the supervision of a representative of the United Nations. On November 28, ULFA publicity secretary Mithinga Daimary contradicted a British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) report that Rajkhowa had offered to participate in an "unconditional dialogue" with the Government of India. Daimary said in a press release that ULFA was fully committed to, sincere about and ready for conditional political talks with the government to find out an acceptable solution to the "Indo-Asom conflict". He also said, "There are no differences among the rank and file of ULFA on this issue."

Rajkhowa's offer was immediately welcomed by Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. Gogoi saw the very fact that the banned group has chosen to talk of a "political settlement" as a positive development. He told Frontline that it was for the first time that ULFA had issued a clear statement expressing its willingness for a meaningful dialogue. "We have been repeatedly urging the Centre to initiate a dialogue with ULFA as well as other militant outfits operating in the State in order to resolve the insurgency problem," Gogoi said. He added, "We are hopeful that the Centre will take note of this and come out with its own reaction." He said that he would look for a mediator acceptable to both sides so that the dialogue could take things forward. Gogoi said his government was not averse to declaring a ceasefire in the State to facilitate peace talks. However, any decision on either declaring a unilateral ceasefire or suspending Army operations in the State, even on an experimental basis, to reciprocate an ULFA offer, would have to be taken in consultation with the Centre.

Two influential organisations in Assam, the All Assam Students' Union (AASU) and the Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad (AJYCP), asked the State government to initiate political negotiations with ULFA and declare a unilateral ceasefire. The AASU and the AJYCP said that "the venue and conditions for talks" should not be a major hurdle. "Talks should be held with ULFA by any means," they said.

The Centre has, however, reacted to the offer with caution. Realising that ULFA is under tremendous pressure from the security forces and the Royal Bhutan Government, which has initiated action against ULFA activists in hideouts in the jungles of Bhutan, the Centre may not go out of its way to accept immediately the offer for talks. P.D. Shenoy, Additional Secretary (Northeast) in the Ministry of Home Affairs, said the Centre did not want to make a hurried comment on ULFA's statement. "The matter involves a policy decision and since Parliament is in session, policy-makers will react to it after weighing the pros and cons of the statement," Shenoy said. Home Ministry sources said New Delhi would first like to ascertain whether the offer had the approval of ULFA hardliners such as Paresh Barua, its "commander in chief".

However, indications are that the Centre may ultimately yield to pressure from Assam's Congress(I) government and major political parties, besides the members of Parliament from the State, and agree for talks. Informed sources said the Centre would have no problem in agreeing to hold talks in a foreign country as such talks were now being held with the banned National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isaac-Muivah), or NSCN(I-M). The Centre has also no problem in accepting ULFA's demand for the suspension of Army operations and the observance of a ceasefire from the day the dialogue would start. But it can in no way agree to the presence of the U.N. observer at the talks. Besides, the Centre wants the talks to be held within the framework of the Indian Constitution.

Observers believe that the ULFA offer is not entirely unexpected. Reports with Central intelligence agencies, however, indicate that the organisation is divided on the question whether talks should be held immediately or after a while.

According to analysts, the immediate reason for the offer of talks could be the pressure mounted by Bhutan on ULFA and other Bodo extremist groups such as the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) operating from Bhutan. Army intelligence sources say that there are about 2,500 ULFA and Bodo militants in Bhutan and they have a large arsenal. Of late some underground Naga militants belonging to the NSCN(I-M) have moved to Bhutan and set up training camps.

The increasing number of Indian militants taking shelter in Bhutanese territory has now come as a threat to Bhutan. The Bhutan government is for the first time trying to tighten the noose around the insurgent groups from northeastern India, which have well-entrenched bases in the rich topical jungles along the border.

Bhutan has long been asking ULFA and other militant groups to leave its territory. This time, however, it seems to be determined to drive them out.

Before going in for full-fledged military operations against them, the Bhutane government recently staunched the militant groups' supply lines. Although supplies continue to be smuggled into ULFA and NDFB camps on a small scale, bulk supplies have been cut off. The Bhutan government has directed the people, especially those living in Samdrup Jhongkhar, to dissociate themselves from the militants. The bulk supplies, which include ration, clothes and medicines, are carried by traders based at Samdrup Jhongkhar, the southern-most town of Bhutan, which is close to Assam's Nalbari district.

While passing through Kolkata on his way to Thimphu on December 2, Bhutan's Home Minister Lyonpo Thinley Gyamtsho told Frontline that ULFA alone had been running nine camps in southern Bhutan. He said that ULFA had agreed to close the camps. "After a few rounds of discussions held recently with the Bhutan Government, the ULFA leadership has said that they will close four of the camps by December. At the other five they will reduce the strength for now and eventually close them as well," the Minister said. As for the NDFB, he said that the government had held two rounds of discussions following which they had agreed to close their camps.

For ULFA, the situation is getting worse, and the members of its armed squads are on the run. The Central government's move to tighten the vigil along the Indo-Bhutan border by deploying 10 battalions of the Border Security Force (BSF) prevented the possibility of ULFA cadre sneaking back into Assam.

Officials believe that ULFA's offer for dialogue stems from two more problems it now faces, apart from the Bhutan government's action which has deprived it of safe bases and heavy loss of cadre in encounters with the security forces. For one, many of its trusted leaders and activists seem to have given up the struggle and decided to surrender to the Army. For the other, ULFA is fast losing mass support because of the violence Assam has been experiencing for over a decade. The economy of the State has been shattered as no meaningful development work could be undertaken during the last 15 years. Besides, a good number of ULFA cadres have lost all hope of securing an "independent Assam".

New Delhi adopted the same wait-and-watch policy before starting talks with the NSCN (I-M) to settle the Naga issue. Talks were held outside India between NSCN (I-M) leaders and former Prime Ministers I.K. Gujral and H.D. Deve Gowda during the last seven years. In yet another move towards solving this complicated issue, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee held talks with Isaac Chishi Swu and T. Muivah, chairman and general secretary of the NSCN(I-M), at Osaka in Japan on December 8. A brief statement issued by the Government of India on the 30-minute talks read: "At the meeting it was reiterated that a negotiated peaceful settlement remained the objective of the two sides."

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