Battle lines in Gujarat

In the shadow of months of state-supported communal violence, Gujarat is all set for a bitter war between two wily politicians, both known as tough fighters.

The audience waited restlessly through the Chief Minister's speech. Some even left halfway through his usual rhetoric. "Let them leave if they want," said Chief Minister Narendra Modi, as people turned their backs while he ranted. Just when he ended, it started raining chappals.

The crowd, that endured Modi's spiteful speech so that they could hear the local Mahesh-Naresh orchestra play at the end, suddenly turned violent. All hell broke loose. They flung chappals and chairs. Some flying objects broke the halogen lights, making it more difficult to see in the darkness. A fire broke out on the stage, caused by a short circuit. Frightened orchestra musicians hurled a huge speaker into the crowd. The local legislator, who organised the show, flung a microphone into the crowd in a fit of rage. One of the CM's aides slapped a volunteer. He claimed he was trying to "disperse the crowd". The police lathi-charged the audience in an effort to break up the brawl. You could say the Yatra went off with a bang.

The Times of India, October 29, 2002

While this may sound like a scene out of a slapstick comedy, it is not. It happened during the Bharatiya Janata Party's Gujarat Gaurav Yatra at Morbi in Surendranagar district on October 26. The stage show in Morbi was an apt reflection of the situation in Gujarat. Yet, the mood in Gujarat is upbeat, with the Election Commission's (E.C.) announcement that Assembly elections will be held on December 12. The wait is finally over. Both the leading political parties in the State, the BJP and the Congress(I), find the date suitable. The stage is now set for a bitter war. The careers of two wily politicians are at stake. Both known as tough fighters, Narendra Modi and Shankarsinh Vaghela, bitter rivals, will not hesitate to use any tactics to win.

The elections are being held in the shadow of months of bloody State-supported communal violence. More than 1,000 people have been killed and around 1.5 lakh made homeless. Even now, sporadic incidents keep occurring in different parts of the State. The BJP wanted elections soon after the carnage, obviously to cash in on the communal division. But the E.C. refused to hold elections until peace was restored and the electoral rolls were updated. After revising the electoral list, the E.C. found that four lakh voters had shifted residence. The E.C. has tracked down 1.7 lakh of them at their new addresses, while another 2.24 lakh are yet to be traced.

Voters have moved to safer locations within and outside Gujarat. Arrangements will be made for them to vote at their current places of residence, even in neighbouring states. The E.C. has asked for heavy security deployment, especially in 12 severely riot-affected districts. With the situation in the State still volatile, it is feared that trouble may erupt during campaigning.

The Gujarat Gaurav Yatra will also be under scrutiny. The E.C. will monitor the funding of the Yatra. Until now, State resources were being used for the extravaganza. State employees and government vehicles including cars and a helicopter were pressed into service to help organise it. This will now be prohibited under the Model Code of Conduct. Modi's speeches will also be videographed, as campaigning along communal lines is illegal.

This may be a damper to the BJP. Since the violence abated, it has tried to keep the communal flames burning with the Gujarat Gaurav Yatra. Modi has used the Yatra as a platform to hurl insults at the minorities and create jingoistic fervour against Pakistan. The party apparently plans to continue with the communal line during the election campaign. Besides the Yatra, the BJP is stirring trouble in other ways too. Recently, the Sangh Parivar re-launched its offensive against Christian missionaries in Dangs district in south Gujarat, dominated by the tribal people. Modi attended a Ram katha ceremony organised outside the same missionary school which was attacked on Christmas day in 1998 as part of the Sangh Parivar's anti-conversion campaign.

The Congress(I) has adopted a shrewd strategy to attack the BJP's communal line. While highlighting the tragedy of the riots, it has also adopted a soft Hindutva line and is trying to win over sants and sadhus. Vaghela, a former leader of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) and the BJP, is attempting to outsmart the BJP by treading on its turf. Recently, he visited the United States to win over the BJP's largest source of support and funding non-resident Indians (NRIs).

It is becoming more and more difficult for the BJP to divert attention from its failures by using the communal card. Public anger with the government's neglect of basic survival issues is growing. The power crisis in the State has led to unrest among farmers, who are not assured of a continuous supply of electricity. In October, angry farmers attacked Gujarat Electricity Board staff in three places Jotana in Mehsana district, Nakhatrana in Kutch and Ankleshwar in Bharuch. At Wakaner in Saurashtra, both the BJP and the Congress(I) have joined hands with farmers, who are demanding a solution to the water crisis that has arisen owing to the drying up of the Wakaner bore project. Farmers, supported by both parties, went on a hunger strike and have threatened an election boycott if the government fails to provide a solution.

The coming elections will test whether the Hindutva opium can overshadow all these problems. The BJP's fortunes will also depend on the extent to which it can quell the fighting within the party. Former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel has stayed away from the campaign. The support of Keshubhai, a powerful Patel leader from Saurashtra, will be crucial for the BJP. Almost one-third (58) of the 82 assembly seats are in Saurashtra and Kutch. In the last election, the BJP won 118 seats, 52 of them from Saurashtra and Kutch. The powerful Patel community, which has traditionally supported the BJP, is against Modi. It prefers Gujarat to have a Patel Chief Minister. Modi belongs to the Ghachi community, which comes under the Other Backward Classes. Other conflicts within the Sangh Parivar are also likely to emerge. The VHP is reportedly demanding that more of its members be given the party ticket. "The distribution of the ticket will be crucial. If the ticket is not given to the strongest candidates, and instead selection is based on who is closer to the Chief Minister, the party will lose seats. Moreover, Keshubhai's support will depend on how many of his people get the ticket," a BJP leader said.

The Gujarat elections are crucial for the BJP to test whether hard-line Hindutva will work. These elections may also set other infamous benchmarks, say, for the level to which politics can stoop. Will the pujas and the brawls work in Modi's favour? Or will the electorate rain chappals on the BJP's pride parade?