Journeyman Modi

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi rides on, spewing venom all the way. But will his game plan, with an eye on the elections, work?

THERE is nothing like a good fight to round up every festival. That's the Sangh Parivar's firm belief. Every celebration is being used to spread hate. The Gods must be invoked at every opportunity to stir up communal strife. After the dreaded Jagannath Yatra in Ahmedabad and the Janmashtami festival in Rajkot, it was now the Ganesh festival that spread terror in Gujarat. Four people were killed and 20 injured in Vadodara city in clashes that broke out on September 20 when the Ganesh processions wound their way through Muslim areas, shouting provocative slogans.

The Sangh Parivar is using every possible opportunity to foment communal animosity. Most large Ganesh processions are organised by the Parivar's local organisations, and degenerate into a chauvanistic flexing of Hindutva muscle. This year, riot-hit areas like Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Panchmahals and Dahod have seen a marked increase in Ganesh pandals. In several Muslim areas, people observed a `janata curfew' to prevent trouble. Ganesh processions were not permitted in Anand and Borsad, where the atmosphere is already tense following recent clashes and the killing of local Congress(I) corporator Babubhai Patel. But the Hindutvavadis remain adamant. Trouble has to be kept brewing, whether it is through festivals or the BJP's own Gaurav Yatra.

This is a yatra with no gaurav but a lot of gaalis. As Chief Minister Narendra Modi takes his Gujarat Gaurav Yatra through the State, he has been hurling insults at various targets Muslims, General Musharraf, Jawaharlal Nehru and Sonia Gandhi. Low-level rabble-rousing is all that Modi is left with. His speeches constitute a frantic attempt to keep communal hatred simmering, even after violence in the State has died down. It is also a shrewd strategy to divert voter attention from the Bharatiya Janata Party government's failures in the State over the last five years.

Modi's yatra has drawn indifferent responses thanks to the discord within his own party. His rival, former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel, is stirring dissent. Campaigning without support from Keshubhai's camp is proving to be difficult.

Since the violence began, Modi has faced severe criticism for supporting the Sangh Parivar's post-Godhra persecution of Muslims in which over 1,000 people died. But still, he did not hesitate to insult the community. "What should we do? Run relief camps for them? Do we want to open baby-producing centres? But for certain people that means `hum paanch, hamare pachhis' (we five and ours 25)... We must teach a lesson to those who multiply like this," Modi said, during a yatra rally in north Gujarat.

A week after Modi's remarks created a national controversy, some whistle blowers were punished. Three senior State police Intelligence Bureau officers were transferred. Their department had dared to recommend that Modi be punished for his communal speech. They sent a note to the Director-General of Police K. Chakravarty and to the Additional Chief Secretary of the Home Department, Ashok Narayan, suggesting that action be taken against Modi for his inflammatory speeches. There is speculation that the government is thinking of filing a case against them under the Official Secrets Act. But they were only doing their duty, fearlessly reporting incidents that could ruin the fragile peace in Gujarat.

Throughout the Gaurav Yatra, Modi has steered clear of any mention of his government's achievements: there are none to speak of anyway. His only boast, of bringing the Narmada waters to the Narmada canal, was also given a communal twist. "We brought Narmada waters during Shravan (the Hindu holy month), but the Congress would have wanted it in Ramzan," Modi said.

However, his claim is hollow. It was later revealed that in Saurashtra, the government diverted water from the Mahi river into the Narmada canal, saying it was Narmada water. While there was jubilation when Narmada waters filled the Sabarmati river basin in Ahmedabad, it is still unclear how many other towns and villages in Gujarat will actually benefit. Distribution networks are yet to be built. "These are just populist tactics to gain attention during the election. Soon after the monsoon, this water may dry up. No one is asking what the government is doing to recharge the waters of the Sabarmati that have dried up," said Sanjay Sanghvai from the Narmada Bachao Andolan.

Not many people are falling for Modi's gimmicks. The yatra has not been able to draw large crowds. Playing on religious sentiments, Modi is starting each leg of his yatra from a temple. First, it was the Bhattiji Maharaj temple in Phagvel, where the worshippers are predominantly Kshatriyas belonging to the Other Backward Classes (OBCs). Then, to win over Dalit support, he flagged off the second round from the temple of the Dalit saint Savianathji in Jhajhankar village. But the Gods do not seem to be helping. "Despite the use of money and state power, the response to the yatra has been indifferent. It is the same group of BJP workers following Modi in luxury buses. Of course there are always a few local supporters and curious onlookers, but nothing much to speak of," BJP sources say.

When Modi recently visited Keshubhai Patel's constituency, Visavadar in Saurashtra, he was drowned out by pro-Keshubhai chants. Many BJP supporters boycotted the rally because they felt that Modi had unfairly ousted their leader last October.

In his own backyard, Modi has to contend with dissent from the powerful Patel lobby within the BJP. Many Patels are upset at the manner in which Keshubhai Patel was booted out. Keshubhai still has a large support base in the Saurashtra region, where the BJP has held 51 of the 58 Assembly seats. Although the BJP has appointed Keshubhai as Modi's campaign manager, the latter chose to stay away from the yatra, citing health reasons. However, he attended a recent meeting of the Leuva Patel community in Gandhinagar organised under the banner of the `Saurashtra Leuva Patel Seva Samaj'. The meeting was held to "fight against political injustice done to the Patel community''. Mafatlal Patel, the estranged husband of Education Minister Anandiben Patel, also spoke at the meeting. "Keshubhai is a visionary. Why shouldn't Gujarat have a Patel Chief Minister?'' he asked. Keshubhai also made his resentment public during a television interview. He said that Narendra Modi might not be the choice for Chief Minister again if the party is voted back to power. "Modi is leading us into the elections, but I am clear that only the MLAs can decide the next Chief Minister," Keshubhai told a television channel. BJP president M. Venkaiah Naidu had recently said that Modi would be the Chief Minister.

BUT both Venkaiah Naidu and Keshubhai Patel may well be jumping the gun by assuming that the BJP will return to power. Voters are angry about the government's neglect of their basic survival problems. The State has had its third consecutive drought. But the government still has not declared the State drought-hit or started relief work for the large number of people rendered jobless and bankrupt. This year, insufficient rainfall in the first two monsoon months resulted in large-scale crop losses. Around 80 per cent of the State has got less than half the normal rainfall. Even though there was some rain later in August, very little of the crop could be salvaged. Around 25 farmers in Sanand, Ahmedabad (rural) district, committed suicide after crop failure left them broke. Development works have ground to a halt with contractors' bills worth around Rs.1,000 crores remaining unpaid. In the cities, employment availability has fallen, owing to the industrial slowdown. Around 60 per cent of Gujarat's small and medium industry, which were the main sources of employment, have either gone sick or been closed. A recent government document estimates that employment in the organised sector fell by 10.29 per cent since 1998, when the BJP came to power. Around 15 lakh people are seeking jobs in the organised sector, just 1.22 lakh fewer than those employed in the sector.

Modi's insults are a cover-up for his failures. They are attempts at rabble-rousing to deflect focus from the real issues that confront Gujarat's voters. He is desperately trying to fan hatred. Rather than bolster Gujarat's pride, he is becoming an embarrassment for the state. Didn't someone say pride goes before a fall.