THE latest move by Myanmar's junta to confront the country's foremost democracy campaigner, Aung San Suu Kyi, may at first glance appear to be a classic case of self-indictment. However, the general view in Asia-Pacific circles is that the long-entrenched military rulers could have calculated that the international community's continuing preoccupation with Iraq, more specifically the controversial role played by the United States, would be a good context to try and silence the forces of democracy in the South-East Asian nation. However, the proactive response of the United Nations to the arrest of Suu Kyi on May 30 has put the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) in a tight spot.
Myanmar is a late entrant into the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) forum, which, generally, tends to avoid discussions on the internal affairs of a member-state. What the SPDC has managed to do, however, is to trouble the ASEAN's collective conscience. By mid-June, it looked as though the regional association would take note of the latest developments in Myanmar. On the eve of the two-day meeting of ASEAN Foreign Ministers, which began in the Cambodian capital of Phnom Penh, Myanmar's Foreign Minister U Win Aung propounded an astonishing theory that Suu Kyi was being held in "protective custody" because it would be the junta that would be blamed if any harm were to befall her in freedom. Apparently, the SPDC's intelligence apparatus had uncovered assassination plots against Suu Kyi by unidentified terrorists.
The SPDC's argument was designed to project itself as a partner in the global "war against terrorism". In the junta's reckoning, the U.S., which relies on General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's military ruler, in its "anti-terror war" may not be in a position to beat Myanmar with the pro-democracy stick. Central to this line of thinking was the fact that the SPDC's U.N.-brokered consent to consider a dialogue with Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) pre-dated the onset of the "global war on terror" that followed the terrorist strikes in New York and Washington on September 11, 2001.
The U.N. was the prime mover in goading the SPDC to soften its stance towards the NLD in 2000 and the U.S. was fully behind the world body in that. If the SPDC deemed it appropriate to release Suu Kyi from house arrest (not to be confused with her latest "protective custody"), it was based on the calculation that she had lost the ability to galvanise democracy campaigns on as large a scale as had been witnessed during the earlier phase of the NLD's struggle. Her latest arrest and the junta's refusal to set her free are indicative of the SPDC's revised thinking that Suu Kyi may now pose a threat to its hold on power.
Suu Kyi was just beginning to breathe new life into a sagging democracy campaign when the SPDC struck. Violence erupted during her campaign at a place in northern Myanmar, where she seemed to receive popular adulation in such large measure that it was reminiscent of her earlier pro-democracy rallies. The NLD's version of the day's events vary sharply from that of the SPDC. The clash between NLD activists and junta-supporters claimed many lives, with estimates varying wildly from four or five deaths to nearly 100. Alleging that Suu Kyi and her supporters were inflaming people's passions, the SPDC clamped down on the democracy campaign and incarcerated Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders.
It was at that stage that U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan decided to despatch his Special Envoy, Razali Ismail, who had earlier brokered the NLD-SPDC accord. But on what turned out to be his 10th visit to Myanmar, Razali struggled to convince the SPDC that it should allow him to meet Suu Kyi. Shortly before his scheduled departure from Yangon on June 10, Razali was permitted to meet Suu Kyi. He reassured the international community that Suu Kyi was not hurt during the arrest. According to him, Suu Kyi and the SPDC might be willing to engage each other in talks. The SPDC will now have to explore this possibility because although the junta might have friends in the region, Suu Kyi's non-violent campaign is not without its admirers.
P.S. SuryanarayanaCOMMents
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