Coalition troubles

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati with Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, Deputy Prime Minister L.K.Advani, Human Resource Development Minister Murli Manohar Joshi and BJP President M. Venkaiah Naidu at the Prime Minister's residence in New Delhi. - RAJEEV BHATT

With Chief Minister Mayawati refusing to yield any ground, the Bharatiya Janata Party's woes in Uttar Pradesh are likely to grow.

DESPITE the Bharatiya Janata Party central leadership's best efforts to keep the coalition in Uttar Pradesh going at least until the next Lok Sabha elections, it seems unlikely that the truce will last that long. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)-BJP alliance, which at best can be described as a marriage of compulsion for the BJP and one of convenience for the BSP, has all the ingredients to trigger a political explosion yet again. This is primarily because Chief Minister Mayawati has not yielded any ground to the BJP, either politically or ideologically.

Mayawati has aggressively pursued her own pro-Dalit agenda and consolidated her support base further, and is running the government on her own terms. Her latest round of actions testify to this.

Irked by State BJP leaders' constant criticism on the issue of her use of the Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) against Member of the Legislative Assembly Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiya and his father Uday Pratap Singh, Mayawati arrived in Delhi on February 9. She met Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani to complain about the conduct of the BJP leaders in the State. "This business of them going to the press with every little thing must stop. I suggested to the Deputy Prime Minister that he call me and his party leaders (for a meeting) from the State so that problems can be sorted out. He agreed to my suggestion," Mayawati told the media.

She apparently told Advani that she would not withdraw the action under POTA taken against Raja Bhaiya and also presented evidence to back her stand. Advani had no choice but to agree with her. That Mayawati was successful in her mission became evident on February 19 when Advani said in the Rajya Sabha that he had no evidence on record to suggest that POTA had been misused in the case of Raja Bhaiya.

Her meeting with Advani was followed by meetings on February 14 with BJP president M. Venkaiah Naidu and Human Resource Development Minister Murli Manohar Joshi and another round with Advani, and on February 15 with Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee. At these meetings the State leaders, namely State BJP president Vinay Katiyar, BJP legislature party leader Lalji Tandon and senior leader Kalraj Mishra were asked to be present. One notable absentee was former Chief Minister Rajnath Singh, who has come to be viewed in the BJP as being a problem himself. Raja Bhaiya's proximity to Rajnath Singh is no secret, and Rajnath Singh was the first to protest against the use of POTA in Raja Bhaiya's case.

The extent to which the BJP's central leaders are willing to compromise with the BSP became evident when Katiyar and company were asked to continue to cooperate with Mayawati "despite her whims", until the general elections. "What is the alternative?" the State BJP leaders were apparently asked by the central leadership.

In the BJP's scheme of things, Raja Bhaiya's case is not strong enough to alienate its core vote bank in the State. By continuing its alliance with the BSP in the Lok Sabha elections, the party hopes to reap rich political dividends. "If we manage to convince Mayawati to contest 31 of the 81 seats in U.P., while we contest the rest, our combined tally will be substantial," said a senior BJP leader. Unless the party improves its performance in U.P., its dream of retaining power at the Centre will never materialise. "And we can achieve this with the help of the BSP," he said.

It is this political compulsion that is making the BJP ignore one basic aspect - that Mayawati's political success depends on the Muslim vote bank.

Political observers are unanimous in their opinion that in Mayawati's long-term scheme of things, the BJP figures nowhere, at least not in fighting elections. Forming the government yes, but not for a joint contest. "She has achieved success because she has managed to combine the Dalit vote with the Muslim vote. She knows that if she joins hands with the BJP, the Muslim vote bank will not stay with her. Despite all her promises, she will not align with the BJP for the Lok Sabha elections," said a senior Samajwadi Party (S.P.) leader. According to him, she has already started the process of finalising her candidates for all the 81 Lok Sabha constituencies. "If the BJP chooses to ignore this, it is most welcome to do so," he said.

The BJP, on the other hand, is taking a calculated risk. It is in favour of continuing the alliance even at the risk of alienating its vote bank for the time being, because, in its opinion, the possible larger success is more important. "In order to win the war, one might have to lose a few battles," said a senior central BJP leader. Hence the decision to stifle the complainants. An informal three-member committee comprising Katiyar, Kalraj Mishra and Lalji Tandon has been asked to speak with Mayawati once every fortnight. "There is no coordination committee. These three leaders were in any case talking to me, now they will meet me once every fortnight and discuss their problems," Mayawati told reporters in New Delhi, making it clear that she had conceded no ground on the BJP's demand for a coordination committee.

But the BJP's problems do not end here. With Rajnath Singh out of the loop and Om Prakash Singh, a backward classes leader, sulking, it is not known how long the calm will prevail. That the situation is not smooth is clear. Even as the central leadership was busy lecturing the State leaders over the merits of the alliance, yet another member of the Rajnath Singh camp, Surya Pratap Shahi, an influential leader of eastern U.P., began to level serious charges against Mayawati in connection with the grabbing of large tracts of agricultural land in Kushinagar for installing a statue of the Buddha.

Shahi, who was a Minister in the Rajnath Singh government, said in Lucknow that following a directive from the Chief Minister 750 acres (300 hectares) of farm land was forcibly acquired by the administration in Kushinagar to install a 500-feet-high Buddha statue. The statue, said to be the tallest in the world, would be built by a Bihar-based non-governmental organisation. Shahi said thousands of villagers would be rendered homeless if their land was not returned to them. He said the Chief Minister should rescind her decision immediately.

The dissidence in the BJP, which may have been contained for the time being, is only expected to grow. With influential leaders such as Rajnath Singh and Om Prakash Singh sidelined, minor irritants will remain. The denial of the ticket to many aspirants in the Lok Sabha elections, which will become inevitable if the two parties fight the elections jointly, will only aggravate the difficulties of the party.

No wonder then that the S.P. is watching the developments keenly. The party is hopeful that the no-confidence motion against Speaker Kesri Nath Tripathi, expected to be taken up during the six-day session of the Assembly beginning on February 28, will expose the fragility of the coalition and expedite its disintegration. "Even if Rajnath Singh keeps a neutral stand, the government will be in serious trouble," an S.P. leader said.

In the coming months, apart from the problems within the coalition, U.P. is expected to witness more troubles with Ayodhya threatening to bounce back centre stage.